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AirJoule Technologies Corporation (AIRJ) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of AirJoule Technologies Corporation $2.08, price $4.14, upside -49.7%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Industrials · US · ISIN US6121601016

AT AirJoule Technologies Corporation logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

AirJoule Technologies Corporation

AIRJ · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $2.08 · Strongly overvalued (−50%)
!Quality 29/100
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/7)
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Insider activity 45/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$29.27 $2.51 Fair Value $2.08 Feb 2022 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

56‑month range $2.51 – $29.27 · fair‑value band $1.56 – $3.10 · the $4.14 price screens above the $2.08 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

AirJoule Technologies Corporation operates as an atmospheric renewable energy and water harvesting technology company.

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AirJoule Technologies Corporation operates as an atmospheric renewable energy and water harvesting technology company. It provides energy and dehumidification, water harvesting systems, water recapture systems, evaporative heat pump systems, water heating systems, low relative humidity drying systems, pre- and mid-cool integration coils, evaporative cooling, advanced vacuum pump systems, isothermal condenser design, gate and seal systems, and atmospheric water generation through its AirJoule technology. In addition, it offers solutions, such as water from air, water recovery, data centers, cooling systems, and moisture control. The company was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in Ronan, Montana.

Stock analysis

AirJoule Technologies Corporation (AIRJ) currently trades at $4.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.08, implying the stock looks roughly 98.8% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $1.56 (bear) to $3.10 (bull), the price of $4.14 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

AirJoule Technologies Corporation reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$9.0M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $314M · EPS (TTM) $−1.30 · Return on equity −31.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −414% · EPS growth (YoY) −83.8% · Free cash flow −$5.7M · Net cash $21.7M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −50%, AIRJ screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.56 Fair Value $2.08 Bull $3.10
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $1.83 $2.45 $3.65 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.83 $2.45 $3.65 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 29/100

Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 4
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 80
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 36
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 49
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 29
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

AIRJ screens 99% overvalued. Compare with Trane Technologies plc →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (75 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 253 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −50% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.17× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Trane Technologies plc TT $437.09 $214.52 −51%
Johnson Controls International plc JCI $145.90 $39.57 −73%
Carrier Global Corporation CARR $55.10 $19.18 −65%
Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO €69.82 €93.50 +34%
Geberit AG GEBN CHF 539.80 CHF 297.73 −45%
Lennox International Inc LII $372.34 $301.61 −19%
Madison Air Solutions Corporation MAIR $25.05 $27.56 +10%
Kingspan Group KRX €99.40 €68.89 −31%
Masco Corporation MAS $69.96 $55.79 −20%
Carlisle Companies Incorporated CSL $323.96 $340.70 +5%

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AirJoule Technologies Corporation · Fair Value
$2.08 −99%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AirJoule Technologies Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AIRJ

Frequently asked questions

Is AirJoule Technologies Corporation (AIRJ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.08 versus a price of $4.14, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AIRJ?
Our model-based fair value for AirJoule Technologies Corporation is $2.08 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.14.
What is the quality score of AIRJ?
AirJoule Technologies Corporation has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AirJoule Technologies Corporation (AIRJ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.08 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.56, optimistic scenario $3.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AirJoule Technologies Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.08, about −50% upside versus a price of $4.14 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.56, optimistic scenario $3.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of AirJoule Technologies Corporation (AIRJ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AirJoule Technologies Corporation it is $2.08 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $4.14. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AirJoule Technologies Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AIRJ trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.14, fair value $2.08, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AIRJ?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.08). For AirJoule Technologies Corporation the two are $2.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AirJoule Technologies Corporation worth?
The market values AirJoule Technologies Corporation at about $314M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $4.14; our models calculate a fair value of $2.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AIRJ?
Our models span a range for AirJoule Technologies Corporation: cautious scenario $1.56, base $2.08, optimistic $3.10 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $4.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of AirJoule Technologies Corporation (AIRJ)?
Balance-sheet figures for AirJoule Technologies Corporation (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −31.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AIRJ from its 52-week high?
AirJoule Technologies Corporation trades at $4.14, about 37% below its 52-week high of $6.59 and 65% above the low of $2.51 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AirJoule Technologies Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Trane Technologies plc, Johnson Controls International plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AirJoule Technologies Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $4.14, calculated fair value $2.08 (−50%), Quality Score 29/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AIRJ calculated?
We run AirJoule Technologies Corporation through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. AirJoule Technologies Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AirJoule Technologies Corporation (AIRJ)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $4.14. Our model-based fair value is $2.08, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AirJoule Technologies Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.56 to $3.10) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of AirJoule Technologies Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of AirJoule Technologies Corporation (AIRJ)?
The market capitalisation of AirJoule Technologies Corporation is $314M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of AirJoule Technologies Corporation (AIRJ)?
Earnings per share at AirJoule Technologies Corporation are $−1.30. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of AirJoule Technologies Corporation (AIRJ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AirJoule Technologies Corporation is −31.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AirJoule Technologies Corporation (AIRJ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AirJoule Technologies Corporation is −414% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast are earnings growing at AirJoule Technologies Corporation (AIRJ)?
Earnings per share at AirJoule Technologies Corporation are growing −83.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AirJoule Technologies Corporation (AIRJ) generate?
The free cash flow of AirJoule Technologies Corporation is −$5.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does AirJoule Technologies Corporation (AIRJ) hold?
AirJoule Technologies Corporation holds more cash than debt, $21.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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