Aspire Mining Limited (AKM) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$102M
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from A$0.2200 to A$0.6000 (+172.7%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price −1.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 179% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.3409). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.3409 to A$0.8045) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0520 – A$0.3900 · fair‑value band A$0.3409 – A$0.8045 · the A$0.2150 price screens below the A$0.6000 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Aspire Mining Limited (AKM) currently trades at A$0.2150, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.6000, implying the stock looks roughly 179.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$27.3K. It earns a return on equity of -31.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$5.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.3409 (bear case) to A$0.8045 (bull case); at A$0.2150, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -56% fair-value upside, at 179%, AKM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (A$0.7400) versus Asset-Based (A$0.0500). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Aspire Mining Limited engages in the development of fat coking coal project in Australia and Mongolia. The company holds 100% interest in the Ovoot Coking Coal Project with mining license located in the Khuvsgul aimag province of north-western Mongolia.
Full company description
Aspire Mining Limited engages in the development of fat coking coal project in Australia and Mongolia. The company holds 100% interest in the Ovoot Coking Coal Project with mining license located in the Khuvsgul aimag province of north-western Mongolia. It also holds a 90% interest in the Nuurstei coking coal project that consists of mining license located in the Khuvsgul aimag province of north-western Mongolia. Aspire Mining Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Aspire Mining Limited reported revenue of A$46.8K in FY2025 versus A$176K in FY2021, a compound −28.2%/yr. Reported net income was −A$12.8M in FY2026.
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Peer Group
Coking Coal · 28 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Coking Coal median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Coking Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk, ADMR | 1,515 IDR | 1,267 IDR | -16% |
| Warrior Met Coal, Inc HCC | $78.91 | $18.35 | -77% |
| Shanxi Meijin Energy Co 000723 | ¥3.34 | ¥1.24 | -63% |
| Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc AMR | $143.80 | $45.29 | -69% |
| Shougang Fushan Resources Group 0639 | HK$2.39 | HK$2.34 | -2% |
| Shanxi Coking Co 600740 | ¥3.54 | ¥1.75 | -51% |
| Kailuan Energy Chemical Co 600997 | ¥5.41 | ¥1.72 | -68% |
| Ramaco Resources, Inc METC | $12.80 | $1.74 | -86% |
| Baotailong New Materials Co 601011 | ¥2.63 | ¥1.91 | -27% |
| SunCoke Energy, Inc SXC | $8.37 | $3.67 | -56% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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