Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Warrior Met Coal Inc $28.76, price $90.24, upside -68.1%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $28.76 · Strongly overvalued (−68%)
!Quality 39/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y +10.8 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.0% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·0.35% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers(6/13)
!Narrow moat41/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.81 – $110.18 · fair‑value band $20.50 – $37.40 · the $90.24 price screens above the $28.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Warrior Met Coal, Inc. engages in the production and export of non-thermal steelmaking coal for the steel production by metal manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. It offers hard-coking coal through the operation of underground mines located in Alabama. The company also sells natural gas extracted as a byproduct from coal production.
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Warrior Met Coal, Inc. engages in the production and export of non-thermal steelmaking coal for the steel production by metal manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. It offers hard-coking coal through the operation of underground mines located in Alabama. The company also sells natural gas extracted as a byproduct from coal production. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.
Stock analysis
Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) currently trades at $90.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.76, implying the stock looks roughly 213.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $27.17 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the $90.24 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.10, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $20.50 (bear) to $37.40 (bull), the price of $90.24 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Warrior Met Coal Inc reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was $57.0M in FY2025, compounding −21.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.6B · P/E ratio 21.7 · P/S ratio 0.94 · EPS (TTM) $4.16 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 4.4% · Return on equity 10.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −68%, HCC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $20.50Fair Value $28.76Bull $37.40
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.65 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.39/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−14.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.2% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−24.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−24.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → 4%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Coking Coal · 27 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Below median
Fair Value upside−68% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth71% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Coking Coal median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)21.7× · Pricier than median
P/B2.59× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.30× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.2× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)40· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)7· sector 21
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Warrior Met Coal Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HCC
Frequently asked questions
Is Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $28.76 versus a price of $90.24, about −68% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HCC?
Our model-based fair value for Warrior Met Coal Inc is $28.76 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $90.24.
What is the quality score of HCC?
Warrior Met Coal Inc has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $28.76 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.50, optimistic scenario $37.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Warrior Met Coal Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $28.76, about −68% upside versus a price of $90.24 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $20.50, optimistic scenario $37.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)?
Warrior Met Coal Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Warrior Met Coal Inc pay a dividend?
Warrior Met Coal Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.35% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Warrior Met Coal Inc it is $28.76 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $90.24. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Warrior Met Coal Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HCC trades above its calculated fair value: price $90.24, fair value $28.76, a gap of about −68% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HCC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($90.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($28.76). For Warrior Met Coal Inc the two are $61.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Warrior Met Coal Inc worth?
The market values Warrior Met Coal Inc at about $5.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $90.24; our models calculate a fair value of $28.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HCC?
Our models span a range for Warrior Met Coal Inc: cautious scenario $20.50, base $28.76, optimistic $37.40 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $90.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HCC?
Warrior Met Coal Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $28.76 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.6, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 12.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Warrior Met Coal Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.0%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HCC from its 52-week high?
Warrior Met Coal Inc trades at $90.24, about 18% below its 52-week high of $110.18 and 46% above the low of $61.84 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $28.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Warrior Met Coal Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk,, Shanxi Meijin Energy Co, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc, Shougang Fushan Resources Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Warrior Met Coal Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $90.24, calculated fair value $28.76 (−68%), Quality Score 39/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HCC calculated?
We run Warrior Met Coal Inc through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $28.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Warrior Met Coal Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $90.24. Our model-based fair value is $28.76, about −68% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Warrior Met Coal Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($37.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($20.50 to $37.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Warrior Met Coal Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)?
The market capitalisation of Warrior Met Coal Inc is $5.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Warrior Met Coal Inc is 0.94 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)?
Earnings per share at Warrior Met Coal Inc are $4.16 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)?
The dividend yield of Warrior Met Coal Inc is 0.4% (payout 7.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)?
The net margin of Warrior Met Coal Inc is 4.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Warrior Met Coal Inc is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Warrior Met Coal Inc is 18.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)?
The operating margin of Warrior Met Coal Inc is 18.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)?
Revenue at Warrior Met Coal Inc is growing +54.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)?
Earnings per share at Warrior Met Coal Inc are growing +19.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) generate?
The free cash flow of Warrior Met Coal Inc is −$91.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) hold?
Warrior Met Coal Inc holds more cash than debt, $29.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026