Warrior Met Coal, Inc (HCC) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $4.2B
Warrior Met Coal, Inc
HCC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $18.35 to $36.70 (+100.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +18.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 60% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($45.88). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.24 – $110.28 · fair‑value band $27.52 – $45.88 · the $91.97 price screens above the $36.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Warrior Met Coal, Inc (HCC) currently trades at $91.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $36.70, implying the stock looks roughly 60.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Warrior Met Coal, Inc generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of 9.3%. Revenue grew 54.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $29.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $27.52 (bear case) to $45.88 (bull case); at $91.97, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 126% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -51% fair-value upside, at -60%, HCC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($27.17) versus Dividend Discount ($4.10). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. engages in the production and export of non-thermal steelmaking coal for the steel production by metal manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. It offers hard-coking coal through the operation of underground mines located in Alabama. The company also sells natural gas extracted as a byproduct from coal production.
Full company description
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. engages in the production and export of non-thermal steelmaking coal for the steel production by metal manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. It offers hard-coking coal through the operation of underground mines located in Alabama. The company also sells natural gas extracted as a byproduct from coal production. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Warrior Met Coal, Inc reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was $57.0M in FY2025, compounding −21.6%/yr from FY2021.
HCC screens 60% overvalued. Compare with PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk, →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Sales and Margin ...
- Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Surpasses Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
- Warrior Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
- Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?
Peer Group
Coking Coal · 28 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Coking Coal median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Coking Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk, ADMR | 1,515 IDR | 1,267 IDR | -16% |
| Shanxi Meijin Energy Co 000723 | ¥3.34 | ¥1.24 | -63% |
| Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc AMR | $143.80 | $45.29 | -69% |
| Shougang Fushan Resources Group 0639 | HK$2.39 | HK$2.34 | -2% |
| Shanxi Coking Co 600740 | ¥3.54 | ¥1.75 | -51% |
| Kailuan Energy Chemical Co 600997 | ¥5.41 | ¥1.72 | -68% |
| Ramaco Resources, Inc METC | $12.80 | $1.74 | -86% |
| Baotailong New Materials Co 601011 | ¥2.63 | ¥1.91 | -27% |
| SunCoke Energy, Inc SXC | $8.37 | $3.67 | -56% |
| Shandong Jinling Mining Co 000655 | ¥6.50 | ¥6.54 | +1% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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