Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc (AMR) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $1.8B
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc
AMR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $48.64 to $90.58 (+86.2%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price +0.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 40% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($106.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.63 – $442.21 · fair‑value band $81.58 – $106.10 · the $151.95 price screens above the $90.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc (AMR) currently trades at $151.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $90.58, implying the stock looks roughly 40.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc generated revenue of $2.1B at a net margin of -1.8%. Revenue declined 1.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $343M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $81.58 (bear case) to $106.10 (bull case); at $151.95, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -51% fair-value upside, at -40%, AMR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($81.44) versus Dividend Discount ($0.2700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., a mining company, produces, processes, and sells met and thermal coal in Virginia and West Virginia. The company provides metallurgical coal products. It operates nineteen active mines and eight active coal preparation and load-out facilities. The company was formerly known as Contura Energy, Inc.
Full company description
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., a mining company, produces, processes, and sells met and thermal coal in Virginia and West Virginia. The company provides metallurgical coal products. It operates nineteen active mines and eight active coal preparation and load-out facilities. The company was formerly known as Contura Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. in February 2021. Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Bristol, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound −1.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$61.7M in FY2025.
AMR screens 40% overvalued. Compare with PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk, →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) Is Up 10.8% After Lowering 2026 Shipment Guidance Amid Terminal Disruptions
- Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) Cuts Guidance, Is The 13% Undervalued View Still Credible?
- Alpha Metallurgical Resources Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Cost ...
Peer Group
Coking Coal · 28 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Coking Coal median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Coking Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk, ADMR | 1,515 IDR | 1,267 IDR | -16% |
| Warrior Met Coal, Inc HCC | $78.91 | $18.35 | -77% |
| Shanxi Meijin Energy Co 000723 | ¥3.34 | ¥1.24 | -63% |
| Shougang Fushan Resources Group 0639 | HK$2.39 | HK$2.34 | -2% |
| Shanxi Coking Co 600740 | ¥3.54 | ¥1.75 | -51% |
| Kailuan Energy Chemical Co 600997 | ¥5.41 | ¥1.72 | -68% |
| Ramaco Resources, Inc METC | $12.80 | $1.74 | -86% |
| Baotailong New Materials Co 601011 | ¥2.63 | ¥1.91 | -27% |
| SunCoke Energy, Inc SXC | $8.37 | $3.67 | -56% |
| Shandong Jinling Mining Co 000655 | ¥6.50 | ¥6.54 | +1% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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