Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc stock $92.08, price $148, that is 37.8% below the price, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $28.84 – $442.21 · fair‑value band $83.94 – $106.98 · the $147.93 price screens above the $92.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., a mining company, produces, processes, and sells met and thermal coal in Virginia and West Virginia. The company provides metallurgical coal products. It operates nineteen active mines and eight active coal preparation and load-out facilities.
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The company was formerly known as Contura Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. in February 2021. Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Bristol, Tennessee.
Stock analysis
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR) currently trades at $147.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $92.08, 38% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $91.70 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the $147.93 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $14.46, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $83.94 (bear) to $106.98 (bull), the price of $147.93 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound −1.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$61.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.9B Small · P/S ratio 0.91 · EPS (TTM) $−3.90 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin −2.2% · Return on equity −3.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 26.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin −2.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 13 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −38%, AMR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$83.94Fair Value $92.08Bull$106.98
Price $147.93 · Downside -37.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$41.50$45.78$53.0782
Growth DCF$41.97$46.04$52.4480
5Y EBITDA Exit$74.68$104.87$144.8476
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$41.50$45.78$53.0782
5Y Revenue Exit$40.55$45.83$53.4974
5Y EBITDA Exit$74.68$104.87$144.8476
10Y Revenue Exit$40.58$44.34$48.3268
10Y EBITDA Exit$60.19$78.33$98.2170
Multiples
EV/EBITDA$110.35$138.12$165.8967
EV/Revenue$39.81$45.28$50.7554
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$9.54$14.46$18.0754
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$41.97$46.04$52.4480
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors bought shares worth $17.5M, most recently on Sep 8, 2026. Over the same period, 2 people sold shares worth $926,820. Buying cluster
BuyKenneth S. CourtisDirector14× since Dec 8, 2025: 215,000 shares, avg. $188.93$40.6MSep 8, 2026
BuyCONTINENTAL GENERAL INSURANCE CODirector, 10% owner10,000 shares at $208.92$2.1MAug 21, 2026
SaleJason E. WhiteheadPresident & COO3,901 shares at $212.28$828,086Jun 3, 2026
SaleMark Matthew MannoEVP, GC & Secretary460 shares at $214.64$98,734Jun 1, 2026
SaleDaniel E. HornChief Commercial Officer2× since Dec 11, 2025: 9,096 shares, avg. $186.37$1.7MMar 5, 2026
SaleJoshua Todd MunseyChief Financial Officer2,523 shares at $183.24$462,315Mar 4, 2026
BuyPercy Rockdale LLCDirector, 10% owner38,576 shares at $188.50$7.3MDec 15, 2025
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−28.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.7% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−12.1% (2020) → −2.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+40.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +36.7% a year for the price and +10.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Coking Coal · 20 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−37.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−2.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)−2.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−10.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Coking Coal median · lower = cheaper
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Is Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $92.08 versus a price of $147.93, about 38% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AMR?
Our model-based fair value for Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc is $92.08 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $147.93.
What is the quality score of AMR?
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $92.08 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $83.94, optimistic scenario $106.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $92.08, about 38% lower versus a price of $147.93 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $83.94, optimistic scenario $106.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR)?
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc pay a dividend?
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.02% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR)?
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc has a dividend yield of 0.0%.
What growth is priced into Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +40.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.5 % per year. Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AMR use?
Our models discount Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.76, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc that is +40.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc grew +8.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +40.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (+40.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.95 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc it is $92.08 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $147.93. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, AMR trades above its calculated fair value: price $147.93, fair value $92.08, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AMR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($147.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($92.08). For Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc the two are $55.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc worth?
The market values Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc at about $1.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $147.93; our models calculate a fair value of $92.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AMR?
Our models span a range for Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc: cautious scenario $83.94, base $92.08, optimistic $106.98 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $147.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −3.0%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AMR from its 52-week high?
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc trades at $147.93, about 41% below its 52-week high of $249.65 and 8% above the low of $137.16 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $92.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Warrior Met Coal, Inc, PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk,, Shanxi Meijin Energy Co, Coronado Global Resources Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $147.93, calculated fair value $92.08 (−38%), Quality Score 47/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AMR calculated?
We run Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc through 9 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $92.08 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $147.93. Our model-based fair value is $92.08, about 38% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($106.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (47/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR)?
The market capitalisation of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc is $1.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc is 0.91 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR)?
Earnings per share at Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc are $−3.90. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR)?
The dividend yield of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc is 0.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR)?
The net margin of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc is −2.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc is −3.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc is 26.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR)?
The operating margin of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc is −2.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR)?
Revenue at Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc is growing −10.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −19.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR)?
Earnings per share at Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc are growing −95.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR) hold?
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc holds more cash than debt, $343M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026