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Ramaco Resources Inc (METC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 8, 2026: fair value of Ramaco Resources Inc $3.06, price $8.49, upside -64.0%, quality 10 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · US · ISIN US75134P6007

RR Ramaco Resources Inc logo Thin data Oct 6, 2026

Ramaco Resources Inc

METC · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +26.0 %/yr in USD)
Moderate debt
Fair value $3.06 · Strongly overvalued (−64.0%)
Quality 10/100
Loss-making · -12.0% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (0/11)
Narrow moat 8/100
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$54.55 $4.63 Fair Value $3.06 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $4.63 – $54.55 · fair‑value band $2.06 – $4.06 · the $8.49 price screens above the $3.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Ramaco Resources, Inc. engages in the development, operation, and sale of metallurgical coal.

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Ramaco Resources, Inc. engages in the development, operation, and sale of metallurgical coal. The company's development portfolio includes the Elk Creek project that covers an area of approximately 20,200 acres located in southern West Virginia; the Berwind property covering an area of approximately 62,500 acres situated on the border of West Virginia and Virginia; the Knox Creek property, which covers an area of approximately 88,850 acres is located in Virginia; the Maben property covering an area of approximately 28,000 acres located in southern West Virginia; and the Brook Mine property that covers an area of approximately 15,800 acres located in northeastern Wyoming. It serves blast furnace steel mills and coke plants in North America, as well as metallurgical coal consumers internationally. Ramaco Resources, Inc. was founded in 2015 and is based in Lexington, Kentucky.

Stock analysis

Ramaco Resources Inc (METC) currently trades at $8.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.06, 64.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $6.25 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $8.49 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.07, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $2.06 (bear) to $4.06 (bull), the price of $8.49 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 10/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Ramaco Resources Inc reported revenue of $537M in FY2025 versus $283M in FY2021, a compound +17.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$51.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $503M · P/S ratio 1.00 · EPS (TTM) $−1.07 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin −9.6% · Return on equity −17.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.8% · Operating margin −12.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 84% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at −64%, METC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.06 Fair Value $3.06 Bull $4.06
Price $8.49 · Upside -64.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM $0.6500 $1.17 $1.61 68
DDM Multi-Stage $0.6500 $1.07 $1.25 67
EV/EBITDA $1.55 $2.14 $2.73 67
All 4 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.6500 $1.17 $1.61 68
DDM Multi-Stage $0.6500 $1.07 $1.25 67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $1.55 $2.14 $2.73 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.66 $6.25 $9.32 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 10/100

Of which business quality 16 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 8

Profitability 6
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 0
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 5
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 22
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 20
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 4
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 28/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−19.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+67.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−11.3% (2020) → −10.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

METC screens overvalued: fair value 64% below the price. Compare with Warrior Met Coal, Inc →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (77 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Coking Coal · 23 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 10 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −64.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −5.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −12.0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −12.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −5.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.93× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Coking Coal median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.04× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.98× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 32
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)53 · sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)17 · sector 18

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Coal

Similar stocks

10 more Coking Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Shougang Fushan Resources Group 0639 HK$2.75 HK$3.76 +37% vs METC
Yunnan Coal & Energy Co 600792 ¥5.04 ¥5.91 +17% vs METC
PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk, ADMR 1,460 IDR 1,223 IDR −16% vs METC
Kailuan Energy Chemical Co 600997 ¥5.22 ¥3.06 −41% vs METC
Shanxi Coking Co 600740 ¥3.76 ¥1.81 −52% vs METC
Baotailong New Materials Co 601011 ¥2.90 ¥1.32 −54% vs METC
Shanxi Meijin Energy Co 000723 ¥3.51 ¥1.24 −65% vs METC
SunCoke Energy, Inc SXC $9.43 $2.80 −70% vs METC
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc AMR $176.98 $49.60 −72% vs METC
Warrior Met Coal, Inc HCC $89.35 $14.38 −84% vs METC

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Ramaco Resources Inc · Fair Value
$3.06 −64%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ramaco Resources Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/METC

Frequently asked questions

Is Ramaco Resources Inc (METC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.06 versus a price of $8.49, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of METC?
Our model-based fair value for Ramaco Resources Inc is $3.06 (as of Oct 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.49.
What is the quality score of METC?
Ramaco Resources Inc has a Quality Score of 10/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ramaco Resources Inc (METC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.06 (as of Oct 6, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.06, optimistic scenario $4.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ramaco Resources Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.06, about −64% upside versus a price of $8.49 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.06, optimistic scenario $4.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ramaco Resources Inc (METC)?
Ramaco Resources Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $515M (latest available figure, as of Oct 6, 2026).
Does Ramaco Resources Inc pay a dividend?
Ramaco Resources Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.84% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ramaco Resources Inc (METC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ramaco Resources Inc it is $3.06 per share (as of Oct 6, 2026), against a price of $8.49. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ramaco Resources Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 6, 2026, METC trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.49, fair value $3.06, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of METC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.06). For Ramaco Resources Inc the two are $5.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ramaco Resources Inc worth?
The market values Ramaco Resources Inc at about $503M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 6, 2026). Per share that is $8.49; our models calculate a fair value of $3.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about METC?
Our models span a range for Ramaco Resources Inc: cautious scenario $2.06, base $3.06, optimistic $4.06 per share (as of Oct 6, 2026, price $8.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ramaco Resources Inc (METC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ramaco Resources Inc (as of Oct 6, 2026): return on equity −17.1%, debt of 0.93 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 10/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is METC from its 52-week high?
Ramaco Resources Inc trades at $8.49, about 84% below its 52-week high of $54.55 and 6% above the low of $8.00 (as of Oct 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ramaco Resources Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Warrior Met Coal, Inc, PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk,, Shanxi Meijin Energy Co, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ramaco Resources Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 6, 2026: price $8.49, calculated fair value $3.06 (−64%), Quality Score 10/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of METC calculated?
We run Ramaco Resources Inc through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ramaco Resources Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ramaco Resources Inc (METC)?
The closing price on Oct 8, 2026 was $8.49. Our model-based fair value is $3.06, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ramaco Resources Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (10/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($2.06 to $4.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Ramaco Resources Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Ramaco Resources Inc (METC)?
The market capitalisation of Ramaco Resources Inc is $503M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ramaco Resources Inc (METC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ramaco Resources Inc is 1.00 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ramaco Resources Inc (METC)?
Earnings per share at Ramaco Resources Inc are $−1.07. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ramaco Resources Inc (METC)?
The dividend yield of Ramaco Resources Inc is 0.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ramaco Resources Inc (METC)?
The net margin of Ramaco Resources Inc is −9.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ramaco Resources Inc (METC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ramaco Resources Inc is −17.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ramaco Resources Inc (METC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ramaco Resources Inc is 9.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ramaco Resources Inc (METC)?
The operating margin of Ramaco Resources Inc is −12.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ramaco Resources Inc (METC)?
Revenue at Ramaco Resources Inc is growing −5.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ramaco Resources Inc (METC)?
Earnings per share at Ramaco Resources Inc are growing −89.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ramaco Resources Inc (METC) generate?
The free cash flow of Ramaco Resources Inc is −$60.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ramaco Resources Inc (METC) carry?
The net debt of Ramaco Resources Inc is $28.5M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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