Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk (AKPI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk IDR 352, price IDR 510, upside -31.1%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 399.99 IDR – 1,697 IDR · fair‑value band 263.70 IDR – 439.51 IDR · the 510.00 IDR price screens above the 351.60 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Argha Karya Prima Industry Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, produces and distributes flexible packaging films in Indonesia, the rest of Asia, America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Australia, and New Zealand. It operates through Manufacturing and Distribution segments.
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PT Argha Karya Prima Industry Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, produces and distributes flexible packaging films in Indonesia, the rest of Asia, America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Australia, and New Zealand. It operates through Manufacturing and Distribution segments. The company offers biaxially oriented polyethylene terephthalate films (BOPET), such as digital printing, barrier, paper lamination, clear, metallized, and coated films under the areta brand; biaxially oriented polypropylene (BOPP) films, including tobacco, straw, heat-sealable, and white cavitated films under the arlene brand; and polyester films. PT Argha Karya Prima Industry Tbk was founded in 1980 and is based in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk (AKPI) currently trades at 510.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 351.60 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 45.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 1,945 IDR per share, and 7 of the 13 models we run sit above the 510.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at 298.53 IDR, and 6 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 263.70 IDR (bear) to 439.51 IDR (bull), the price of 510.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk reported revenue of 2.9T IDR in FY2025 versus 2.7T IDR in FY2021, a compound +2.1%/yr. Reported net income was 12.7B IDR in FY2025, compounding −45.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 312B IDR (≈ $31.2M) · P/E ratio 9.8 · P/S ratio 0.04 · EPS (TTM) 52.00 IDR · Net margin 0.4% · Return on equity 1.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% · Operating margin 5.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −31%, AKPI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 263.70 IDRFair Value 351.60 IDRBull 439.51 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (38.18 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.32/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.8% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−5.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−28% vs −10%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 4%
Compare Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−31% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.26× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)9.8× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.18× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.11× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA2.5× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 3
PAST (return on equity)7· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)87· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 46
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AKPI
Frequently asked questions
Is Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk (AKPI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 351.60 IDR versus a price of 510.00 IDR, about −31% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AKPI?
Our model-based fair value for Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk is 351.60 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 510.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of AKPI?
Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk (AKPI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 351.60 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 263.70 IDR, optimistic scenario 439.51 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 351.60 IDR, about −31% upside versus a price of 510.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 263.70 IDR, optimistic scenario 439.51 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk (AKPI)?
Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.9T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk (AKPI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk it is 351.60 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 510.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AKPI trades above its calculated fair value: price 510.00 IDR, fair value 351.60 IDR, a gap of about −31% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AKPI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (510.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (351.60 IDR). For Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk the two are 158.40 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk worth?
The market values Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk at about 312B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 510.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 351.60 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AKPI?
Our models span a range for Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk: cautious scenario 263.70 IDR, base 351.60 IDR, optimistic 439.51 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 510.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AKPI?
Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 351.60 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 2.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk (AKPI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.8%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AKPI from its 52-week high?
Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk trades at 510.00 IDR, about 18% below its 52-week high of 618.91 IDR and 13% above the low of 451.91 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 351.60 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 510.00 IDR, calculated fair value 351.60 IDR (−31%), Quality Score 47/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AKPI calculated?
We run Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 351.60 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk (AKPI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 510.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 351.60 IDR, about −31% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (439.51 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk (AKPI)?
The market capitalisation of Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk is 312B IDR (≈ $31.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk (AKPI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk is 0.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk (AKPI)?
Earnings per share at Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk are 52.00 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk (AKPI)?
The net margin of Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk is 0.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk (AKPI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk is 1.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk (AKPI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk (AKPI)?
The operating margin of Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk (AKPI)?
Revenue at Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk is growing −1.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk (AKPI)?
Earnings per share at Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk are growing +14.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk (AKPI) generate?
The free cash flow of Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk is −189B IDR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk (AKPI) carry?
The net debt of Argha Karya Prima Ind Tbk is 1.2T IDR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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