ALCPD Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · PH · Market cap 5.3B PHP
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 907.14 PHP to 910.19 PHP (+0.3%) since Jul 10, 2026. Share price +0.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 83% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (32/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (684.48 PHP). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
56‑month range 400.00 PHP – 525.00 PHP · fair‑value band 684.48 PHP – 1,138 PHP · the 498.00 PHP price screens below the 910.19 PHP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
ALCPD (ALCPD) currently trades at 498.00 PHP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 910.19 PHP, implying the stock looks roughly 82.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 4.9 (as of Jul 10, 2026). Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 684.48 PHP (bear case) to 1,138 PHP (bull case); at 498.00 PHP, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 150% fair-value upside, at 83%, ALCPD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (756.44 PHP) versus Multiples (23.29 PHP). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
ALCPD reported revenue of 6.2B PHP in FY2024 versus 3.3B PHP in FY2020, a compound +17.2%/yr. Reported net income was 576M PHP in FY2024, compounding −10.2%/yr from FY2020.
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Peer Group
Real Estate Operations · 39 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Operations median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMPH SMPH | 18.24 PHP | 17.53 PHP | -4% |
| RLC RLC | 16.34 PHP | 40.85 PHP | +150% |
| DDPR DDPR | 93.00 PHP | 112.27 PHP | +21% |
| ALLHC ALLHC | 1.16 PHP | 0.7200 PHP | -38% |
| DMW DMW | 5.00 PHP | 5.22 PHP | +4% |
| SLI SLI | 2.08 PHP | 5.20 PHP | +150% |
| PT Rimo International Lestari Tbk RIMO | 50.00 IDR | 72.09 IDR | +44% |
| SHNG SHNG | 3.19 PHP | 7.98 PHP | +150% |
| CLI CLI | 2.14 PHP | 5.35 PHP | +150% |
| GERI GERI | 0.6200 PHP | 1.55 PHP | +150% |
Compare ALCPD with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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