UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $384B
UnitedHealth Group
UNH · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $292.06 to $525.71 (+80.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −5.7% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 30% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- Our model range runs from $367.96 (bear) to $657.13 (bull), base $525.71. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 68/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $231.57 – $599.78 · fair‑value band $367.96 – $657.13 · the $403.97 price screens below the $525.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) currently trades at $403.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $525.71, implying the stock looks roughly 30.1% undervalued today. We read business quality at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, UnitedHealth Group generated revenue of $450B at a net margin of 2.7%. Revenue grew 2.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.2%. Net debt stands at $54.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $367.96 (bear case) to $657.13 (bull case); at $403.97, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 30%, UNH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($344.40) versus Asset-Based ($69.43). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates as a health care company in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Optum Health, Optum Insight, Optum Rx; and UnitedHealthcare.
Full company description
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates as a health care company in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Optum Health, Optum Insight, Optum Rx; and UnitedHealthcare. The Optum Health segment provides care delivery, care management, wellness and consumer engagement, and health financial services with patients, consumers, care delivery systems, providers, employers, payers, and public-sector entities. The Optum Insight segment offers software and information products, advisory consulting arrangements, and managed services outsourcing contracts to hospital systems, physicians, health plans, public entities, life sciences companies and other organizations. The Optum Rx segment provides pharmacy care services and programs, including retail network contracting, home delivery, specialty and community health pharmacy services, infusion, and purchasing and clinical capabilities, as well as develops programs in the areas of step therapy, formulary management, drug adherence, and disease and drug therapy management. The UnitedHealthcare segment offers consumer-oriented health benefit plans and services for national employers, public sector employers, mid-sized employers, small businesses, and individuals; Medicaid plans, including Temporary Assistance to Needy Families; Children's Health Insurance Programs; Dual SNPs; Long-Term Services and Supports; Aged, Blind and Disabled; and other federal, state, and community health care programs. and health care benefits products and services to state programs caring for the economically disadvantaged, medically underserved, and those without the benefit of employer-funded health care coverage. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was founded in 1974 and is based in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
UnitedHealth Group reported revenue of $448B in FY2025 versus $288B in FY2021, a compound +11.7%/yr. Reported net income was $12.1B in FY2025, compounding −8.6%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Healthcare Plans · 15 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Healthcare Plans median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Healthcare Plans stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CVS Health Corporation CVS | $104.15 | $42.54 | -59% |
| Elevance Health, Inc ELV | $372.85 | $431.40 | +16% |
| The Cigna Group CI | $304.50 | $495.42 | +63% |
| Humana Inc HUM | $400.00 | $127.61 | -68% |
| Centene Corporation CNC | $66.61 | $111.96 | +68% |
| Molina Healthcare, Inc MOH | $233.31 | $199.31 | -15% |
| Oscar Health, Inc OSCR | $29.10 | $58.20 | +100% |
| Alignment Healthcare, Inc ALHC | $20.60 | $2.37 | -88% |
| Progyny, Inc PGNY | $31.93 | $16.44 | -49% |
| Bradsaúde S.A SAUD3 | R$15.35 | R$20.75 | +35% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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