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Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · TR · Market cap 5.9B TRY (≈ $122M) · ISIN TRAALKAW91D8

What is Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS really worth?

AK Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS ALKA · IS
Price7.83 TRY
Fair Value4.34 TRY
Upside−44.6%
Quality28/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 80% above our fair value of 4.34 TRY.

As of Aug 19, 2026, the fair value of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 4.34 TRY per share against a price of 7.83 TRY, so the fair value sits 45% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +48.6 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -5.0% net margin
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
!Narrow moat 15/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Low Range 3.10 TRY – 5.58 TRY

Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026

From 6 valuation models · updated 17 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 19, 2026, revised from 2.17 TRY to 4.34 TRY (+100.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −2.0% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (5.58 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • A fairly wide model range (3.10 TRY to 5.58 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

15.99 TRY 0.9215 TRY Fair Value 4.34 TRY May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 0.9215 TRY – 15.99 TRY · fair‑value band 3.10 TRY – 5.58 TRY · the 7.83 TRY price screens above the 4.34 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA) currently trades at 7.83 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.34 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 80.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 2.40 TRY per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the 7.83 TRY price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 0.8600 TRY, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS generated revenue of 2.8B TRY at a net margin of −5.0%. Revenue declined 15.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −6.9%. Net debt stands at 227M TRY. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 3.10 TRY (bear case) to 5.58 TRY (bull case); at 7.83 TRY, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −45%, ALKA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EPV best evidence 0.7300 TRY 0.8600 TRY 0.9700 TRY 74
ROIC Compounder 0.7300 TRY 0.8600 TRY 0.9700 TRY 72
EV/EBITDA 1.78 TRY 2.40 TRY 3.02 TRY 67
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV best evidence 0.7300 TRY 0.8600 TRY 0.9700 TRY 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT 1.79 TRY 2.42 TRY 3.04 TRY 66
EV/EBITDA 1.78 TRY 2.40 TRY 3.02 TRY 67
EV/Revenue 1.54 TRY 2.24 TRY 2.93 TRY 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 1.41 TRY 1.90 TRY 2.83 TRY 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 0.7300 TRY 0.8600 TRY 0.9700 TRY 72

Widest divergence: Multiples (2.40 TRY) versus Earnings-Based (0.8600 TRY). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 2.12 TTM
EPS (TTM) −0.1500 TRY
Dividend yield 3.5%
Net margin −3.7% FY2025
Return on equity −6.9% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 22.5% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin −5.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 2.8B TRY TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −15.4% 3y avg +16.1%
EPS growth (YoY) −64.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −569M TRY FY2025
Net debt 227M TRY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 28/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25

Profitability 19
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 11
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 79
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 11
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 40
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS manufactures and sells woodfree offset, coated, and office papers in Turkey. Its woodfree offset papers include offset white writing and printing papers, bristol, and copy quality offset white writing and printing papers; coated papers comprise glossy, matt, and one side coated papers, as well as label papers; and special …

Full company description

Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS manufactures and sells woodfree offset, coated, and office papers in Turkey. Its woodfree offset papers include offset white writing and printing papers, bristol, and copy quality offset white writing and printing papers; coated papers comprise glossy, matt, and one side coated papers, as well as label papers; and special papers include envelope, blueprint, drawing, map, optical reader, kraft shopping bag, ivory, chamois, white kraft, and wall papers, as well as office papers under the Platinum Copy, Gold Copy, Best Copy, and All Copy brand names. The company was founded in 1948 and is based in Izmir, Turkey. Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS operates as a subsidiary of Alkim Alkali Kimya A.S.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS reported revenue of 2.9B TRY in FY2025 versus 701M TRY in FY2021, a compound +42.4%/yr. Reported net income was −108M TRY in FY2025.

Growth Quality 32/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
2.9B TRY
Latest YoY
−19.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+48.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (22Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.5%
EBIT margin (trend) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
20.5% (2020) → 4.5% (2025)
Value creation/yr We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue +42.4%/yr
FY21 701M TRY
FY22 1.8B TRY
FY23 3.5B TRY
FY24 3.6B TRY
FY25 2.9B TRY
Net income
FY21 184M TRY
FY22 477M TRY
FY23 131M TRY
FY24 −184M TRY
FY25 −108M TRY

ALKA screens 80% overvalued. Compare with UPM-Kymmene Oyj →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALKA.IS

Peer Group

Paper & Paper Products · 118 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −45% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −5% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth −15% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.5% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.04× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.06× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.04× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 1.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 4.12× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 24
FUTURE0 · sector 2
PAST0 · sector 14
HEALTH98 · sector 92
DIVIDEND70 · sector 46

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM €24.31 €14.21 −42%
Suzano S.A SUZ $9.15 $24.16 +164%
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAA kr 112.50 kr 45.12 −60%
Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 ¥13.94 ¥17.29 +24%
Holmen AB HOLMB kr 323.00 kr 217.72 −33%
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 HK$7.92 HK$8.74 +10%
PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk INKP 8,800 IDR 17,945 IDR +104%
Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC 1,049 CLP 1,281 CLP +22%
The Navigator Company NVG €3.24 €2.65 −18%
Xianhe Co 603733 ¥21.11 ¥21.06 +0%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4.34 TRY versus a price of 7.83 TRY, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALKA?
Our model-based fair value for Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 4.34 TRY (as of Aug 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 7.83 TRY.
What is the quality score of ALKA?
Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 4.34 TRY (as of Aug 19, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 3.10 TRY, optimistic scenario 5.58 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 4.34 TRY, about −45% upside versus a price of 7.83 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 3.10 TRY, optimistic scenario 5.58 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.8B TRY (latest available figure, as of Aug 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ALKA?
The net profit margin of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is about −5.0%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS pay a dividend?
Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.51% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 19, 2026).
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