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Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk (INKP) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · ID · Market cap 40.6T IDR (≈ $4.1B) · ISIN ID1000062201

What is Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk really worth?

IK Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk INKP · JK
Price8,800 IDR
Fair Value17,945 IDR
Upside+103.9%
Quality52/100

A solid business, trading 51% below our fair value of 17,945 IDR.

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Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 14.7% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/13)

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.0 %/yr)
!Moderate moat 56/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 22 out of 100
!Weak on past: 28 out of 100
Evidence: Low Range 13,110 IDR – 18,332 IDR

Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026

From 19 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Sep 5, 2026, revised from 1.02 IDR to 17,945 IDR (+1,759,171.6%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +5.1% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (13,110 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

11,871 IDR 4,266 IDR Fair Value 17,945 IDR Mar 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 4,266 IDR – 11,871 IDR · fair‑value band 13,110 IDR – 18,332 IDR · the 8,800 IDR price screens below the 17,945 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk (INKP) currently trades at 8,800 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 17,945 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 51.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 22,346 IDR per share, and 15 of the 19 models we run sit above the 8,800 IDR price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 5,756 IDR, and 4 of the 19 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk generated revenue of 3.2B IDR at a net margin of 14.7%. Revenue grew 4.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.9%. Net debt stands at 3.4B IDR. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 13,110 IDR (bear case) to 18,332 IDR (bull case); at 8,800 IDR, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 104%, INKP screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 1,052 IDR per share, which is 5.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence 17,267 IDR 18,114 IDR 19,299 IDR 76
EPV 12,697 IDR 15,744 IDR 18,622 IDR 74
5Y EBITDA Exit 6,772 IDR 14,728 IDR 25,224 IDR 72
All 19 models by family
DCF Models
5Y Revenue Exit 1,524 IDR 5,756 IDR 12,019 IDR 66
5Y EBITDA Exit 6,772 IDR 14,728 IDR 25,224 IDR 72
5Y P/E Exit 5,248 IDR 12,189 IDR 20,315 IDR 68
10Y Revenue Exit — 2,709 IDR 6,941 IDR 64
10Y EBITDA Exit 2,878 IDR 8,803 IDR 15,744 IDR 64
10Y P/E Exit 1,862 IDR 7,110 IDR 12,527 IDR 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 9,480 IDR 16,082 IDR 19,637 IDR 67
EPV 12,697 IDR 15,744 IDR 18,622 IDR 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple 17,606 IDR 23,531 IDR 29,456 IDR 63
P/S Multiple 10,834 IDR 14,559 IDR 18,114 IDR 58
P/B Multiple 17,606 IDR 23,531 IDR 29,456 IDR 55
EV/EBIT 16,590 IDR 23,700 IDR 30,980 IDR 65
EV/EBITDA 15,405 IDR 22,346 IDR 29,118 IDR 67
EV/Revenue 5,248 IDR 9,649 IDR 14,051 IDR 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 10,665 IDR 14,220 IDR 21,161 IDR 54
Growth DCF
Rev-Margin DCF 1,524 IDR 5,756 IDR 10,834 IDR 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence 17,267 IDR 18,114 IDR 19,299 IDR 76
ROIC Compounder 12,697 IDR 15,744 IDR 18,622 IDR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 12,527 IDR 17,945 IDR 23,362 IDR 67

Widest divergence: Multiples (22,346 IDR) versus Growth DCF (5,756 IDR). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 5.7
P/S ratio 0.81 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) 1,548 IDR price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.7
Net margin 14.3% FY2025
Return on equity 6.9% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 24.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 3.2B IDR TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.3% 3y avg −7.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +11.4%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 33.2M IDR FY2025
Net debt 3.4B IDR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 41
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 49
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 46
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk manufactures and sells cultural paper, pulp, tissue, and industrial paper in Indonesia, Asia, the United States, Australia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.

Full company description

PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk manufactures and sells cultural paper, pulp, tissue, and industrial paper in Indonesia, Asia, the United States, Australia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. The company provides cigarette packaging board, corrugated carton box, corrugated carton sheet, folding box, ivory, triplex, duplex, food packaging board, corrugating medium, test liner, single face box, and converted food service packaging products. It also offers color woodfree paper, color industrial paper, color book printing, Quran paper, color photo copy paper, color stationery, and duplicating paper. In addition, the company engages in manufacturing, trading, mining, and forestry; and provides financing, investment, and trading services. PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk is a subsidiary of PT APP Purinusa Ekapersada.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk reported revenue of $3.1B in FY2025 versus $3.5B in FY2021, a compound −2.9%/yr. Reported net income was $448M in FY2025, compounding −4.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 32/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
3.1B IDR
Latest YoY
−2.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+8.8% (8.8 + 0.0)
Revenue −2.9%/yr
FY21 $3.5B
FY22 $4.0B
FY23 $3.5B
FY24 $3.2B
FY25 $3.1B
Net income −4.0%/yr
FY21 $526M
FY22 $858M
FY23 $411M
FY24 $424M
FY25 $448M

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Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk · Fair Value
17,945 IDR +51%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/INKP

Peer Group

Paper & Paper Products · 117 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 52 · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 24% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.43× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.59× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.27× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 122.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 5.9× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 22
FUTURE22 · sector 1
PAST28 · sector 13
HEALTH79 · sector 92
DIVIDEND0 · sector 47

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM €24.31 €14.21 −42%
Suzano S.A SUZ $9.15 $24.16 +164%
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB kr 111.95 kr 45.12 −60%
Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 ¥13.94 ¥17.29 +24%
Holmen AB HOLMB kr 323.00 kr 217.72 −33%
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 HK$7.92 HK$8.74 +10%
Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC 1,049 CLP 1,281 CLP +22%
The Navigator Company NVG €3.24 €2.65 −18%
Xianhe Co 603733 ¥21.11 ¥21.06 +0%
Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A SEM €20.70 €24.73 +19%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk (INKP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 17,945 IDR versus a price of 8,800 IDR, about +104% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of INKP?
Our model-based fair value for Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk is 17,945 IDR (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 8,800 IDR.
What is the quality score of INKP?
Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk (INKP)?
Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.2B IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of INKP?
The net profit margin of Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk is about 14.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 14.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
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