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PT Alakasa Industrindo Tbk, through its subsidiaries, (ALKA) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · ID · Market cap 358B IDR

PA PT Alakasa Industrindo Tbk, through its subsidiaries, ALKA · JK
Price1,715 IDR
Fair Value526.31 IDR
Upside-69.3%
Quality66/100
Weak Growth
Solidly profitable · 14.0% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
Narrow moat 36/100
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Evidence: High Range 404.23 IDR – 648.39 IDR Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 17 days ago

Share price +226.7% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 69% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (648.39 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

1,715 IDR 214.00 IDR Fair Value 526.31 IDR Feb 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 214.00 IDR – 1,715 IDR · fair‑value band 404.23 IDR – 648.39 IDR · the 1,715 IDR price screens above the 526.31 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

PT Alakasa Industrindo Tbk, through its subsidiaries, (ALKA) currently trades at 1,715 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 526.31 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 69.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, PT Alakasa Industrindo Tbk, through its subsidiaries, generated revenue of 120B IDR at a net margin of 14.0%. Revenue declined 73.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 19.3B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 404.23 IDR (bear case) to 648.39 IDR (bull case); at 1,715 IDR, the current price sits above that range. The share trades near its 52-week high. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at -69%, ALKA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income 315.84 IDR 342.75 IDR 468.57 IDR 76
ROIC Compounder 274.25 IDR 317.22 IDR 355.42 IDR 72
Gordon GGM 0.9189 IDR 1.87 IDR 3.38 IDR 70
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings 395.11 IDR 580.49 IDR 863.68 IDR 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 210.52 IDR 538.23 IDR 700.31 IDR 54
PEG = 1.0 100.56 IDR 143.65 IDR 186.75 IDR 46
EPV 274.25 IDR 317.22 IDR 355.42 IDR 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 0.9189 IDR 1.87 IDR 3.38 IDR 70
DDM Multi-Stage 0.9189 IDR 1.43 IDR 2.01 IDR 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 464.39 IDR 619.19 IDR 773.99 IDR 63
P/S Multiple 394.73 IDR 526.31 IDR 657.89 IDR 58
P/B Multiple 394.73 IDR 526.31 IDR 657.89 IDR 55
EV/EBIT 411.43 IDR 538.33 IDR 665.22 IDR 53
EV/EBITDA 318.97 IDR 415.04 IDR 511.12 IDR 54
EV/Revenue 287.36 IDR 397.33 IDR 507.31 IDR 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 186.03 IDR 249.29 IDR 372.07 IDR 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income 315.84 IDR 342.75 IDR 468.57 IDR 76
ROIC Compounder 274.25 IDR 317.22 IDR 355.42 IDR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 361.72 IDR 516.75 IDR 671.77 IDR 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (580.49 IDR) versus Dividend Discount (1.43 IDR). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 120B IDR
Revenue growth (YoY) -73.2%
Net margin 14.0%
Return on equity 7.6%
Free cash flow −18.0B IDR FY2025
P/E ratio 18.6
More key figures
Operating margin -28.2%
EPS (TTM) 37.91 IDR
EPS growth (YoY) -55.1%
Net cash 19.3B IDR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75

Profitability 46
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 94
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 85
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 15
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

PT Alakasa Industrindo Tbk, through its subsidiaries, offers aluminium and metal fabrication products for automotive, train, energy, plantation, green house structure, furniture, and other projects in Indonesia. It operates through Aluminum Industry, Trading, and Rentals segments.

Full company description

PT Alakasa Industrindo Tbk, through its subsidiaries, offers aluminium and metal fabrication products for automotive, train, energy, plantation, green house structure, furniture, and other projects in Indonesia. It operates through Aluminum Industry, Trading, and Rentals segments. The company also sources and delivers various products including bauxite, alumina, calcinated petroleum coke, and aluminum ingots. In addition, it trades in aluminum raw materials; operates an alumina refinery; and engages in owning and leasing of real estate properties. It also exports its products. The company was founded in 1972 and is based in Jakarta Timur, Indonesia. PT Alakasa Industrindo Tbk is a subsidiary of The Gesit Companies.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PT Alakasa Industrindo Tbk, through its subsidiaries, reported revenue of 171B IDR in FY2025 versus 3.5T IDR in FY2021, a compound −52.9%/yr. Reported net income was 19.4B IDR in FY2025, compounding +0.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 25/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
171B IDR
Latest YoY
+116.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−65.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
−39.2%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y)
−2.1%
Revenue −52.9%/yr
FY21 3.5T IDR
FY22 4.1T IDR
FY23 1.9T IDR
FY24 78.9B IDR
FY25 171B IDR
Net income +0.8%/yr
FY21 18.8B IDR
FY22 48.0B IDR
FY23 42.0B IDR
FY24 −4.3B IDR
FY25 19.4B IDR

ALKA screens 69% overvalued. Compare with Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Alakasa Industrindo Tbk, through its subsidiaries, Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALKA.JK

Peer Group

Aluminum · 86 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −69% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -28% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -73% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 18.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.53× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.99× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 20.4× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 12
FUTURE 0 · sector 26
PAST 30 · sector 30
HEALTH 100 · sector 91
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 32

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 ¥18.54 ¥26.70 +44%
China Hongqiao Group 1378 HK$20.06 HK$45.23 +125%
Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO ₹955.80 ₹1,026 +7%
Aluminum Corporation 601600 ¥8.11 ¥12.58 +55%
Norsk Hydro ASA NHY kr 84.96 kr 58.10 -32%
Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 8.02 MYR 3.88 MYR -52%
Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 ¥25.12 ¥29.68 +18%
Alcoa Corporation AAI A$70.60 A$49.53 -30%
Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 ¥25.51 ¥30.28 +19%
Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 ¥11.99 ¥21.86 +82%

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Frequently asked questions

Is PT Alakasa Industrindo Tbk, through its subsidiaries, (ALKA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 526.31 IDR versus a price of 1,715 IDR, about −69% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALKA?
Our model-based fair value for PT Alakasa Industrindo Tbk, through its subsidiaries, is 526.31 IDR (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 1,715 IDR.
What is the quality score of ALKA?
PT Alakasa Industrindo Tbk, through its subsidiaries, has a Quality Score of 66/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.
What is the revenue of PT Alakasa Industrindo Tbk, through its subsidiaries, (ALKA)?
PT Alakasa Industrindo Tbk, through its subsidiaries, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 120B IDR (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ALKA?
The net profit margin of PT Alakasa Industrindo Tbk, through its subsidiaries, is about 14.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 14.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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