ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of ANA Holdings Inc stock $7.39, price $3.83, upside +92.9%, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?Yes
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.90 – $4.43 · fair‑value band $5.07 – $9.23 · the $3.83 price screens below the $7.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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ANA Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in Japan and internationally. It operates through Aviation Business, Aviation related business, Travel business, and Trading company business segments.
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The Air Transportation segment offers domestic and international passenger, cargo and mail, and other transportation services. The Aviation related business segment provides air transportation related services, such as airport handling, and maintenance services.
Its Travel business segment provides travellers with transportation, accommodation and other related services for the travel products, and manages the itinerary for the travel products.
The Trading company business segment import and export of aviation-related materials, stores, mail order sales, etc. The company was formerly known as All Nippon Airways Co., Ltd. and changed its name to ANA Holdings Inc. in April 2013.
ANA Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 1920 and is headquartered in Minato, Japan.
Stock analysis
ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY) currently trades at $3.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.39, implying the stock looks roughly 48.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $11.93 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the $3.83 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.44, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.07 (bear) to $9.23 (bull), the price of $3.83 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
ANA Holdings Inc ADR reported revenue of ¥2.7T in FY2026 versus ¥1.0T in FY2022, a compound +27.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥179B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $10.0B Mid · P/E ratio 9.3 · P/S ratio 0.62 · EPS (TTM) $0.4100 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 13.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at 93%, ALNPY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5.07Fair Value $7.39Bull$9.23
Price $3.83 · Upside +92.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2348 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.2% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+44.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+42.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.42.3% vs 7.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−64% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−15.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.8% a year for the price and +0.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (80 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: ANA's operations benefit from inbound tourism revenue but face pressure from squeezed margins in a cyclical industry with no evident competitive moat.
Main risk: Higher fuel costs threaten to squeeze operating margins in ANA's airline operations despite flexible pricing and tourism support.
ANA keeps executing its large-scale share buyback, having acquired over 42 million shares so far under the 150 billion yen program. Strong inbound tourism supports revenue, yet higher fuel costs have squeezed recent margins even with flexible pricing. Our models see the stock as undervalued, but will the dual-brand strategy with Peach and further international route growth offset these pressures more than they add complexity?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 56 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+92.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.2% · Above median
Return on assets4.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)6.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)3.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)22.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.65× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
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Is ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.39 versus a price of $3.83, about +93% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALNPY?
Our model-based fair value for ANA Holdings Inc ADR is $7.39 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.83.
What is the quality score of ALNPY?
ANA Holdings Inc ADR has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.39 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.07, optimistic scenario $9.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ANA Holdings Inc ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.39, about +93% upside versus a price of $3.83 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.07, optimistic scenario $9.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY)?
ANA Holdings Inc ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.7T (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does ANA Holdings Inc ADR pay a dividend?
ANA Holdings Inc ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 2.09% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ANA Holdings Inc ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -15.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +29.9 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALNPY use?
Our models discount ANA Holdings Inc ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ANA Holdings Inc ADR that is -15.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ANA Holdings Inc ADR grew +29.9 % a year. The price currently implies -15.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ANA Holdings Inc ADR (-15.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.97 %: that much free cash flow ANA Holdings Inc ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ANA Holdings Inc ADR it is $7.39 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $3.83. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ANA Holdings Inc ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, ALNPY trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.83, fair value $7.39, a gap of about +93% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALNPY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.39). For ANA Holdings Inc ADR the two are $3.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ANA Holdings Inc ADR worth?
The market values ANA Holdings Inc ADR at about $10.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $3.83; our models calculate a fair value of $7.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALNPY?
Our models span a range for ANA Holdings Inc ADR: cautious scenario $5.07, base $7.39, optimistic $9.23 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $3.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALNPY?
ANA Holdings Inc ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.39 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 4.2, P/B 1.0, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 4.8.
What is the PEG ratio of ALNPY?
The PEG ratio of ANA Holdings Inc ADR is 4.18 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY)?
Balance-sheet figures for ANA Holdings Inc ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 13.2%, debt of 0.65 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALNPY from its 52-week high?
ANA Holdings Inc ADR trades at $3.83, about 7% below its 52-week high of $4.14 and 21% above the low of $3.16 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ANA Holdings Inc ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ANA Holdings Inc ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $3.83, calculated fair value $7.39 (+93%), Quality Score 55/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALNPY calculated?
We run ANA Holdings Inc ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ANA Holdings Inc ADR currently trades 48 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was $3.83. Our model-based fair value is $7.39, about +93% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ANA Holdings Inc ADR right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($5.07). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($5.07 to $9.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY) come from?
Earnings per share at ANA Holdings Inc ADR grew +8.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.0 %, EBIT margin +2.8 %, tax rate +2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ANA Holdings Inc ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY)?
The market capitalisation of ANA Holdings Inc ADR is $10.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ANA Holdings Inc ADR is 0.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY)?
Earnings per share at ANA Holdings Inc ADR are $0.4100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY)?
The dividend yield of ANA Holdings Inc ADR is 2.1% (payout 19.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY)?
The net margin of ANA Holdings Inc ADR is 6.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ANA Holdings Inc ADR is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ANA Holdings Inc ADR is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY)?
The operating margin of ANA Holdings Inc ADR is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY)?
Revenue at ANA Holdings Inc ADR is growing +22.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY)?
Earnings per share at ANA Holdings Inc ADR are growing −19.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPY) carry?
The net debt of ANA Holdings Inc ADR is ¥437B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026