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Data-driven stock valuation

ANA Holdings Inc ADR (ALNPY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what ANA Holdings Inc ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Industrials · US · Market cap $8.4B · ISIN US0323501009

At a glance

AH ANA Holdings Inc ADR logo ANA Holdings Inc ADR ALNPY · US
Price$4.02
Fair Value$7.32
Upside+82.0%
Quality55/100

A solid business, trading 45% below our fair value of $7.32.

As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of ANA Holdings Inc ADR is $7.32 per share against a price of $4.02, so the fair value sits 82% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +29.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.7% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·2.20% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (11/15)
!Narrow moat 42/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Medium Range $4.80 to $9.15

Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Sep 8, 2026, revised from $10.59 to $7.32 (−30.9%) since Aug 30, 2026. Share price +2.0% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($4.80). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range ($4.80 to $9.15) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$4.43 $2.90 Fair Value $7.32 Dec 2020 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.90 – $4.43 · fair‑value band $4.80 – $9.15 · the $4.02 price screens below the $7.32 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

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Analysis

ANA Holdings Inc ADR (ALNPY) currently trades at $4.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.32, implying the stock looks roughly 45.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $10.28 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the $4.02 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.88, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, ANA Holdings Inc ADR generated revenue of ¥2.5T at a net margin of 6.7%. Revenue grew 18.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.9%. Net debt stands at ¥437B. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026

Scenario range: $4.80 (bear) to $9.15 (bull), the price of $4.02 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at 82%, ALNPY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $6.82 $10.70 $16.35 79
Growth DCF $6.93 $10.35 $15.03 78
Owner Earnings $3.44 $5.56 $8.66 75
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $6.82 $10.70 $16.35 79
Owner Earnings $3.44 $5.56 $8.66 75
5Y Revenue Exit $5.71 $9.18 $13.56 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $8.58 $14.54 $21.47 74
5Y P/E Exit $6.64 $10.93 $15.38 70
10Y Revenue Exit $5.88 $9.10 $13.33 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $7.84 $12.73 $19.21 67
10Y P/E Exit $6.63 $10.28 $14.68 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $3.50 $10.75 $14.28 65
Lynch FV $2.32 $3.31 $4.31 61
PEG = 1.0 $2.32 $3.31 $4.31 57
EPV $3.91 $4.63 $5.25 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $8.10 $10.80 $13.50 63
P/S Multiple $6.56 $8.74 $10.93 58
P/B Multiple $6.56 $8.74 $10.93 55
EV/EBIT $7.78 $10.59 $13.40 66
EV/EBITDA $10.87 $14.71 $18.55 67
EV/Revenue $5.37 $7.94 $10.52 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.15 $2.88 $4.30 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $6.93 $10.35 $15.03 78
Rev-Margin DCF $5.71 $9.23 $13.27 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $3.92 $4.56 $8.51 68
ROIC Compounder $3.91 $4.81 $6.10 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $6.67 $9.53 $12.38 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($10.28) versus Asset-Based ($2.88). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 10.1
P/S ratio 0.67 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.4000 price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.1
Dividend yield 2.2% payout 22.1%
Net margin 6.7% FY2026
Return on equity 12.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0% avg 5y
Operating margin 5.6% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) ¥2.5T TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +18.4% 3y avg +16.4%
EPS growth (YoY) +50.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow ¥242B FY2026
Net debt ¥437B FY2026 · ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 60
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 45
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 67
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 56
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 77
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 90
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

ANA Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in Japan and internationally. It operates through Aviation Business, Aviation related business, Travel business, and Trading company business segments.

Full company description

ANA Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in Japan and internationally. It operates through Aviation Business, Aviation related business, Travel business, and Trading company business segments. The Air Transportation segment offers domestic and international passenger, cargo and mail, and other transportation services. The Aviation related business segment provides air transportation related services, such as airport handling, and maintenance services. Its Travel business segment provides travellers with transportation, accommodation and other related services for the travel products, and manages the itinerary for the travel products. The Trading company business segment import and export of aviation-related materials, stores, mail order sales, etc. The company was formerly known as All Nippon Airways Co., Ltd. and changed its name to ANA Holdings Inc. in April 2013. ANA Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 1920 and is headquartered in Minato, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

ANA Holdings Inc ADR reported revenue of ¥2.7T in FY2026 versus ¥1.0T in FY2022, a compound +27.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥179B in FY2026.

Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
$2.7T
Latest YoY
+19.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+29.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (26Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in JPY) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+44.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+42.3%
Dividend yield2.2%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 42.3% vs 10Y 7.5%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−63.8% (2021) → 8.6% (2026) · rising
Worst earnings drop616% (2022) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue +27.5%/yr
FY22 ¥1.0T
FY23 ¥1.7T
FY24 ¥2.1T
FY25 ¥2.3T
FY26 ¥2.7T
Net income
FY22 −¥144B
FY23 ¥89.5B
FY24 ¥157B
FY25 ¥153B
FY26 ¥179B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) +8.2 % p.a.
Revenue per share +2.0 %

of which total revenue +3.2 % · buybacks/dilution −1.2 %

EBIT margin +2.8 %
Tax rate +2.4 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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ANA Holdings Inc ADR · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ANA Holdings Inc ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALNPY

Peer Group

Airlines · 57 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +74% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 18% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.65× · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.1× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 4.14× · Priciest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must ANA Holdings Inc ADR deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years-9.1 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+29.9 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+4.6 %
FCF yield on price15.09 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.5 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 56
FUTURE92 · sector 51
PAST52 · sector 48
HEALTH68 · sector 69
DIVIDEND44 · sector 48

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL $80.17 $115.82 +44%
United Airlines Holdings UAL $110.60 $175.62 +59%
Ryanair Holdings RYA €25.47 €41.26 +62%
Southwest Airlines Co LUV $38.73 $14.76 −62%
InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO ₹5,166 ₹3,073 −41%
Singapore Airlines Limited C6L 6.73 SGD 7.89 SGD +17%
Air China Limited 601111 ¥5.94 ¥7.16 +21%
LATAM Airlines Group LTM $52.50 $106.79 +103%
China Southern Airlines Company 600029 ¥5.08 ¥1.28 −75%
Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA €7.80 €18.94 +143%

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Frequently asked questions

Is ANA Holdings Inc ADR (ALNPY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.32 versus a price of $4.02, about +82% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALNPY?
Our model-based fair value for ANA Holdings Inc ADR is $7.32 (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.02.
What is the quality score of ALNPY?
ANA Holdings Inc ADR has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ANA Holdings Inc ADR (ALNPY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.32 (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.80, optimistic scenario $9.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ANA Holdings Inc ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.32, about +82% upside versus a price of $4.02 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $4.80, optimistic scenario $9.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ANA Holdings Inc ADR (ALNPY)?
ANA Holdings Inc ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.5T (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ALNPY?
The net profit margin of ANA Holdings Inc ADR is about 6.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does ANA Holdings Inc ADR pay a dividend?
ANA Holdings Inc ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into ANA Holdings Inc ADR (ALNPY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ANA Holdings Inc ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -9.1 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.5 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +29.9 % per year. As of Sep 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALNPY use?
Our models discount ANA Holdings Inc ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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