Alstom SA (ALO) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · FR · Market cap €7.3B
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from €22.63 to €14.71 (−35.0%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price +7.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 12% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (€9.62 to €18.38) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from €9.62 (bear) to €18.38 (bull), base €14.71. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 39/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €10.09 – €41.69 · fair‑value band €9.62 – €18.38 · the €16.66 price screens above the €14.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Alstom SA (ALO) currently trades at €16.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €14.71, implying the stock looks roughly 11.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Alstom SA generated revenue of €19.2B at a net margin of 1.7%. Revenue grew 4.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.4%. Net debt stands at €2.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €9.62 (bear case) to €18.38 (bull case); at €16.66, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at -12%, ALO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€15.52) versus Dividend Discount (€1.09). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alstom SA provides solutions for rail transport industry in Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa.
Full company description
Alstom SA provides solutions for rail transport industry in Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa. The company offers rolling stock solutions comprising people movers and monorails, light rails, metros, commuter and regional trains, high-speed trains, and locomotives; asset optimization, connectivity, and security and city mobility solutions; and signaling products, such as urban, mainline, and freight and mining signaling. It also provides APM, monorail, tram, metro, and main line systems; and tracklaying and track, catenary free and ground feeding, electrification, cybersecurity, and engineering consultancy solutions, as well as electromechanical equipment. In addition, the company offers rail maintenance, modernization, overhaul, parts, repair and overhauls, and support services. Further, it provides various components, including bogies, motors, dampers, brake friction products, switchgears, traction and auxiliary converters, transformers, green traction solutions, interiors, and train control and information systems. The company offers its products and solutions to original equipment manufacturers, operators, and asset owners. Alstom SA was founded in 1928 and is based in Saint-Ouen, France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Alstom SA reported revenue of €19.2B in FY2026 versus €15.5B in FY2022, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was €324M in FY2026.
ALO screens 12% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ALSTOM S.A: Alstom to provide 25 additional X’trapolis 2.0 trains in Australia for €270m
- ALSTOM S.A: Update on the AMF investigation opened in 2021/22
- Alstom S.A.: Alstom and its partners reach financial close for Israel’s Haifa-Nazareth light rail project
- Alstom (ENXTPA:ALO) Stock Looks Cheap On Earnings But Pricey On Broader Checks
Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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