Allreal (ALRHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Allreal $136, price $228, upside -40.5%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $97.53 – $282.50 · fair‑value band $135.57 – $170.31 · the $228.00 price screens above the $135.57 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Allreal Holding AG, through its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate company in Switzerland. It operates in two segments, Real Estate and Development & Realisation. The company invests in residential and commercial properties. It also offers portfolio management, operational, and building management services.
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Allreal Holding AG, through its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate company in Switzerland. It operates in two segments, Real Estate and Development & Realisation. The company invests in residential and commercial properties. It also offers portfolio management, operational, and building management services. In addition, the company provides project development, and consulting services; and sells condominiums. Additionally, it is involved in planning, execution of construction projects, and buying and developing real estate projects and developing sites; maintenance of technical systems; renovation activities; and implementation of own and third-party construction projects, as well as acquires plots of land. Allreal Holding AG was founded in 1999 and is based in Opfikon, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Allreal (ALRHF) currently trades at $228.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $135.57, 40.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $179.02 per share, and 1 of the 14 models we run sit above the $228.00 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $15.84, and 13 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $135.57 (bear) to $170.31 (bull), the price of $228.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Allreal reported revenue of CHF 437M in FY2025 versus CHF 553M in FY2021, a compound −5.7%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 219M in FY2025, compounding +4.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.7B · P/E ratio 13.6 · P/S ratio 6.85 · EPS (TTM) $16.72 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 50.2% · Return on equity 8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −41%, ALRHF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.7400 to $272.48). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $135.57Fair Value $135.57Bull $170.31
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.35 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+3.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 42%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−10.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CHF, Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.0% a year for the price and −10.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 529 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−54.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.1% · Above median
Return on assets1.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)50.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)39.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.76× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)13.6× · Pricier than median
P/B1.41× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)8.86× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF24.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA32.5× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 43
FUTURE (revenue growth)21· sector 14
PAST (return on equity)33· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)62· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)61· sector 63
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Allreal Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALRHF
Frequently asked questions
Is Allreal (ALRHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $135.57 versus a price of $228.00, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALRHF?
Our model-based fair value for Allreal is $135.57 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $228.00.
What is the quality score of ALRHF?
Allreal has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Allreal (ALRHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $135.57 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $135.57, optimistic scenario $170.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Allreal stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $135.57, about −41% upside versus a price of $228.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $135.57, optimistic scenario $170.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Allreal (ALRHF)?
Allreal reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 437M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Allreal pay a dividend?
Allreal currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Allreal (ALRHF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Allreal would have to grow free cash flow by +17.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALRHF use?
Our models discount Allreal at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.52, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Allreal that is +17.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Allreal (ALRHF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Allreal grew -3.3 % a year. The price currently implies +17.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Allreal (ALRHF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Allreal (+17.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Allreal (ALRHF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.00 %: that much free cash flow Allreal produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Allreal (ALRHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Allreal it is $135.57 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $228.00. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Allreal stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALRHF trades above its calculated fair value: price $228.00, fair value $135.57, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALRHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($228.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($135.57). For Allreal the two are $92.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Allreal worth?
The market values Allreal at about $4.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $228.00; our models calculate a fair value of $135.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALRHF?
Our models span a range for Allreal: cautious scenario $135.57, base $135.57, optimistic $170.31 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $228.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALRHF?
Allreal trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $135.57 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 8.9, EV/EBITDA 32.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Allreal (ALRHF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Allreal (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.1%, debt of 0.76 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALRHF from its 52-week high?
Allreal trades at $228.00, about 19% below its 52-week high of $282.50 and 40% above the low of $163.40 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $135.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Allreal?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Allreal stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $228.00, calculated fair value $135.57 (−41%), Quality Score 63/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALRHF calculated?
We run Allreal through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $135.57, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Allreal itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Allreal (ALRHF)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was $228.00. Our model-based fair value is $135.57, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Allreal right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($170.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Allreal
How large is the market capitalisation of Allreal (ALRHF)?
The market capitalisation of Allreal is $4.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Allreal (ALRHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Allreal is 6.85 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Allreal (ALRHF)?
Earnings per share at Allreal are $16.72 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Allreal (ALRHF)?
The dividend yield of Allreal is 3.1% (payout 41.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Allreal (ALRHF)?
The net margin of Allreal is 50.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Allreal (ALRHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Allreal is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Allreal (ALRHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Allreal is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Allreal (ALRHF)?
The operating margin of Allreal is 39.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Allreal (ALRHF)?
Revenue at Allreal is growing +4.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Allreal (ALRHF)?
Earnings per share at Allreal are growing −28.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Allreal (ALRHF) carry?
The net debt of Allreal is CHF 2.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 17.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026