Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $9.4B
Allison Transmission Holdings
ALSN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $116.23 to $117.65 (+1.2%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price +1.8% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range ($72.75 to $170.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $30.30 – $135.66 · fair‑value band $72.75 – $170.06 · the $116.24 price screens below the $117.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN) currently trades at $116.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $117.65, implying the stock looks roughly 1.2% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Allison Transmission Holdings generated revenue of $3.6B at a net margin of 14.9%. Revenue grew 83.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 30.4%. Net debt stands at $1.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $72.75 (bear case) to $170.06 (bull case); at $116.24, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at 1%, ALSN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($125.08) versus Dividend Discount ($14.42). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles and medium- and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles, and electrified propulsion systems worldwide.
Full company description
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles and medium- and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles, and electrified propulsion systems worldwide. It offers transmissions for various applications, including distribution, refuse, construction, fire, and emergency on-highway trucks; school and transit buses; motor homes; energy, mining, and construction of off-highway vehicles and equipment; and wheeled and tracked defense vehicles. The company also provides its transmissions and electric propulsion solutions under the Allison Transmission brand name; and remanufactured transmissions under the ReTran brand name. In addition, it sells branded replacement parts, support equipment, aluminum die cast components, and other products necessary to service the installed base of vehicles utilizing its solutions, as well as defense kits, engineering services, and extended transmission coverage services to various original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and the U.S. government. The company was formerly known as Clutch Holdings, Inc. Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1915 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Allison Transmission Holdings reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $2.4B in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was $623M in FY2025, compounding +9.0%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Allison Transmission (ALSN) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?
- Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN) Could Be 12% Undervalued Following EAGLE V Contract Win
- Allison Transmission to Supply Fully Automatic Transmissions to General Dynamics European Land Systems for EAGLE Series vehicles for German
- Allison Schedules Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call
Peer Group
Auto Parts · 641 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
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10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
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| Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG | ₹2,117 | ₹441.74 | -79% |
| Uno Minda Limited UNOMINDA | ₹1,158 | ₹426.57 | -63% |
| Schaeffler India Limited SCHAEFFLER | ₹4,135 | ₹1,412 | -66% |
| Hankook Tire & Technology Co 161390 | 73,600 KRW | 196,479 KRW | +167% |
| MRF Limited MRF | ₹131,025 | ₹125,849 | -4% |
| Sona BLW Precision Forgings Limited SONACOMS | ₹660.10 | ₹207.06 | -69% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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