Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc stock $120, price $121, that is 0.5% below the price, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $30.30 – $135.66 · fair‑value band $76.09 – $170.05 · the $120.52 price screens above the $119.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles and medium- and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles, and electrified propulsion systems worldwide.
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It offers transmissions for various applications, including distribution, refuse, construction, fire, and emergency on-highway trucks; school and transit buses; motor homes; energy, mining, and construction of off-highway vehicles and equipment; and wheeled and tracked defense vehicles.
The company also provides its transmissions and electric propulsion solutions under the Allison Transmission brand name; and remanufactured transmissions under the ReTran brand name.
In addition, it sells branded replacement parts, support equipment, aluminum die cast components, and other products necessary to service the installed base of vehicles utilizing its solutions, as well as defense kits, engineering services, and extended transmission coverage services to various original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and the U.S. government.
The company was formerly known as Clutch Holdings, Inc. Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1915 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Stock analysis
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) currently trades at $120.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $119.95, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $155.43 per share, and 8 of the 23 models we run sit above the $120.52 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $13.85, and 15 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $76.09 (bear) to $170.05 (bull), the price of $120.52 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $2.4B in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was $623M in FY2025, compounding +9.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $10.1B Large · P/E ratio 17.4 · P/S ratio 2.30 · EPS (TTM) $6.93 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 12.0% · Return on equity 28.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 71 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at 0%, ALSN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$76.09Fair Value $119.95Bull$170.05
Price $120.52 · Downside -0.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.92 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $4.5M and none bought.
SaleDavid S. GraziosiChair, President and CEO, Director26,708 shares at $132.98$3.6MAug 21, 2026
SaleEric C. ScrogginsCLO & Asst. Secretary2× since Mar 9, 2026: 2,363 shares, avg. $119.11$281,457Aug 11, 2026
SaleG Frederick BohleyOfficer2× since Feb 13, 2026: 14,309 shares, avg. $118.06$1.7MAug 10, 2026
SaleScott A MellCFO & Treasurer2,270 shares at $125.00$283,750May 8, 2026
SaleJohn CollSVP, Global MSS1,791 shares at $98.79$176,933Dec 31, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus 4 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.2% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+13.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.2% vs 19.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 32%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.3% a year for the price and +15.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Solid margins and cash flow underpin the transmission business while defense and vocational demand add stability, yet thin public signals on moat factors limit proof of lasting advantage.
Main risk: Unexpected integration headwinds from the recent off-highway acquisition could pressure margins and operations across the broadened industrial segments.
Allison recently redeemed part of its senior notes, trimming debt and strengthening the balance sheet after the large off-highway acquisition. That move broadens exposure to new industrial segments while the legacy transmission business benefits from defense and vocational demand. Our models see it as undervalued. Will the debt reduction free up resources for further expansion or will the integration of the new unit create unexpected headwinds?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 658 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−0.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)28.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)12.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)19.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)92.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.55× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)17.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B5.42× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $119.95 versus a price of $120.52, about 0% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ALSN?
Our model-based fair value for Allison Transmission Holdings Inc is $119.95 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $120.52.
What is the quality score of ALSN?
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $119.95 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $76.09, optimistic scenario $170.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Allison Transmission Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $119.95, about 0% lower versus a price of $120.52 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $76.09, optimistic scenario $170.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)?
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Allison Transmission Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.93% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Allison Transmission Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +7.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.7 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALSN use?
Our models discount Allison Transmission Holdings Inc at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.06, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Allison Transmission Holdings Inc that is +7.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Allison Transmission Holdings Inc grew +7.7 % a year. The price currently implies +7.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (+7.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.41 %: that much free cash flow Allison Transmission Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Allison Transmission Holdings Inc it is $119.95 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $120.52. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Allison Transmission Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, ALSN trades above its calculated fair value: price $120.52, fair value $119.95, a gap of about −0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALSN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($120.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($119.95). For Allison Transmission Holdings Inc the two are $0.5700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Allison Transmission Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Allison Transmission Holdings Inc at about $10.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $120.52; our models calculate a fair value of $119.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALSN?
Our models span a range for Allison Transmission Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $76.09, base $119.95, optimistic $170.05 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $120.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALSN?
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.4 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $119.95 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 11.0. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 5.4, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 9.7.
What is the PEG ratio of ALSN?
The PEG ratio of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc is 0.52 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 28.4%, debt of 1.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALSN from its 52-week high?
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc trades at $120.52, about 11% below its 52-week high of $135.66 and 53% above the low of $78.62 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $119.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Allison Transmission Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Allison Transmission Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $120.52, calculated fair value $119.95 (−0%), Quality Score 64/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALSN calculated?
We run Allison Transmission Holdings Inc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $119.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Allison Transmission Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $120.52. Our model-based fair value is $119.95, about 0% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Allison Transmission Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($76.09 to $170.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) come from?
Earnings per share at Allison Transmission Holdings Inc grew +23.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.5 %, EBIT margin +3.2 %, tax rate +2.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)?
The market capitalisation of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc is $10.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc is 2.30 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)?
Earnings per share at Allison Transmission Holdings Inc are $6.93 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)?
The dividend yield of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc is 0.9% (payout 16.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)?
The net margin of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc is 12.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc is 28.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc is 16.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)?
The operating margin of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc is 19.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)?
Revenue at Allison Transmission Holdings Inc is growing +92.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)?
Earnings per share at Allison Transmission Holdings Inc are growing −6.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) carry?
The net debt of Allison Transmission Holdings Inc is $1.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026