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Winfarm (ALWF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Winfarm €4.31, price €3.91, upside +10.3%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · FR · ISIN FR0014000P11

W Some data Sep 23, 2026

Winfarm

ALWF · PA

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value €4.31 · Fairly valued (+10%)
!Quality 53/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +8.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -0.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/12)
!Narrow moat 22/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€38.40 €3.30 Fair Value €4.31 Aug 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €3.30 – €38.40 · fair‑value band €2.54 – €6.35 · the €3.91 price screens below the €4.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

WINFARM engages in the provision of consulting, services, and supplies of equipment and solutions to the agricultural and livestock industry worldwide.

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WINFARM engages in the provision of consulting, services, and supplies of equipment and solutions to the agricultural and livestock industry worldwide. The company is also involved in the design and manufactures of food supplements and hygiene products for livestock; sale of agricultural supplies under the VITAL CONCEPT brand for the mixed crop-livestock market; and operates Bel Orient farm. In addition, it provides technical advice services; and training courses for professionals in agriculture, industry, construction, service sector, and local authorities. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Loudéac, France.

Stock analysis

Winfarm (ALWF) currently trades at €3.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.31, implying the stock looks roughly 9.3% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €28.45 per share, and 10 of the 10 models we run sit above the €3.91 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €5.16, and 0 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: €2.54 (bear) to €6.35 (bull), the price of €3.91 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Winfarm reported revenue of €146M in FY2025 versus €108M in FY2021, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was −€831K in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €7.8M · P/S ratio 0.05 · EPS (TTM) €−0.4200 · Net margin −0.6% · Return on equity −5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.9% · Operating margin −0.1% · Revenue (TTM) €147M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 10%, ALWF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €2.54 Fair Value €4.31 Bull €6.35
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €35.92 €60.42 €96.86 79
Growth DCF €36.42 €57.75 €87.39 78
Owner Earnings €14.42 €27.10 €45.95 74
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €35.92 €60.42 €96.86 79
Owner Earnings €14.42 €27.10 €45.95 74
5Y Revenue Exit €7.83 €10.27 €12.47 74
5Y EBITDA Exit €23.25 €39.45 €58.06 74
10Y Revenue Exit €17.85 €22.65 €27.70 68
10Y EBITDA Exit €27.53 €42.57 €62.07 68
Multiples
EV/EBITDA €19.18 €28.45 €37.71 66
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €3.85 €5.16 €7.70 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €36.42 €57.75 €87.39 78
Rev-Margin DCF €7.83 €11.11 €15.28 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 34
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.7% (2020) → 0.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Compare Winfarm with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 155 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside +10% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.35× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.58× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.06× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 1.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 6.4× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)47 · sector 41
FUTURE (revenue growth)30 · sector 30
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)32 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 40

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Caterpillar Inc CAT $805.25 $308.45 −62%
Deere & Company DE $694.94 $258.17 −63%
PACCAR Inc PCAR $112.09 $123.30 +10%
Daimler Truck Holding DTG €43.20 €50.31 +16%
Exor N.V EXO €72.85 €139.72 +92%
Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 ¥17.72 ¥20.84 +18%
Traton SE 8TRA €34.86 €32.88 −6%
Metso Oyj METSO €18.09 €19.90 +10%
XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 ¥7.30 ¥14.52 +99%
Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 HK$36.80 HK$56.39 +53%

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Winfarm · Fair Value
€4.31 +9%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Winfarm Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALWF

Frequently asked questions

Is Winfarm (ALWF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €4.31 versus a price of €3.91, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALWF?
Our model-based fair value for Winfarm is €4.31 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €3.91.
What is the quality score of ALWF?
Winfarm has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Winfarm (ALWF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €4.31 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.54, optimistic scenario €6.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Winfarm stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €4.31, about +10% upside versus a price of €3.91 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €2.54, optimistic scenario €6.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Winfarm (ALWF)?
Winfarm reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €147M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Winfarm (ALWF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Winfarm it is €4.31 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €3.91. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Winfarm stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ALWF trades below its calculated fair value: price €3.91, fair value €4.31, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALWF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€3.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€4.31). For Winfarm the two are €0.4030 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Winfarm worth?
The market values Winfarm at about €7.8M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €3.91; our models calculate a fair value of €4.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALWF?
Our models span a range for Winfarm: cautious scenario €2.54, base €4.31, optimistic €6.35 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €3.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Winfarm (ALWF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Winfarm (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −5.3%, debt of 1.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALWF from its 52-week high?
Winfarm trades at €3.91, about 20% below its 52-week high of €4.87 and 9% above the low of €3.58 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €4.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Winfarm?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Winfarm stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €3.91, calculated fair value €4.31 (+10%), Quality Score 53/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALWF calculated?
We run Winfarm through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €4.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Winfarm currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Winfarm (ALWF)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €3.91. Our model-based fair value is €4.31, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Winfarm right now?
A fairly wide model range (€2.54 to €6.35) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of Winfarm

How large is the market capitalisation of Winfarm (ALWF)?
The market capitalisation of Winfarm is €7.8M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Winfarm (ALWF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Winfarm is 0.05 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Winfarm (ALWF)?
Earnings per share at Winfarm are €−0.4200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Winfarm (ALWF)?
The net margin of Winfarm is −0.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Winfarm (ALWF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Winfarm is −5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Winfarm (ALWF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Winfarm is −0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Winfarm (ALWF)?
The operating margin of Winfarm is −0.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Winfarm (ALWF)?
Revenue at Winfarm is growing +6.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Winfarm (ALWF) generate?
The free cash flow of Winfarm is €7.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Winfarm (ALWF) carry?
The net debt of Winfarm is €25.7M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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