Atlas Arteria (ALX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 2, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Atlas Arteria stock A$4.08, price A$3.73, upside +9.4%, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$3.66 – A$5.44 · fair‑value band A$3.41 – A$5.31 · the A$3.73 price screens below the A$4.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Atlas Arteria Limited owns, develops, and operates toll roads in France, Germany, Australia, Bermuda, and the United States.
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It holds 30.82% interest in the APRR motorway network, 30.85% interest in the ADELAC commuter road, and 30.79% interest in the A79 transversal link located in France; 100% interest in the Warnow Tunnel located in Rostock, Germany; 66.67% interest in the Chicago Skyway situated in Chicago, United States; and 100% interest in the Dulles Greenway located in Virginia, United States.
Atlas Arteria Limited was formerly known as Macquarie Atlas Roads Limited and changed its name to Atlas Arteria Limited in May 2018. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
Atlas Arteria (ALX) currently trades at A$3.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$4.08, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.6%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$8.14 per share, and 10 of the 20 models we run sit above the A$3.73 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$2.10, and 10 of the 20 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: A$3.41 (bear) to A$5.31 (bull), the price of A$3.73 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Atlas Arteria reported revenue of A$160M in FY2025 versus A$101M in FY2021, a compound +12.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$260M in FY2025, compounding +12.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$5.4B (≈ $3.8B) Mid · P/E ratio 46.6 · P/S ratio 75.6 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0800 · Dividend yield 5.4% · Return on equity 0.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.2% · Operating margin −24.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 9%, ALX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$3.41Fair Value A$4.08BullA$5.31
Price A$3.73 · Upside +9.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +53.4% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.6% vs 5.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−29% → −5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.1%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.9% a year for the price and +1.5% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Toll roads deliver resilient underlying cash flows as the main strength, while low gross margins and ROE indicate a weak competitive advantage.
Main risk: Mixed traffic volumes and currency movements could reduce the resilient cash flows generated by the toll road operations.
Atlas Arteria’s toll roads keep delivering resilient underlying cash flows despite mixed traffic and currency moves. IFM’s majority stake now sets the stage for a payout policy of 90 to 110 percent of free cash flow without multi-year targets. Our models see it as undervalued. Will the new owner drive efficiency gains that lift distributions or redirect capital elsewhere?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Infrastructure Operations · 61 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+9.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets4.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)222.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−24.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−4.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Atlas Arteria Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALX.AU
Frequently asked questions
Is Atlas Arteria (ALX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$4.08 versus a price of A$3.73, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ALX?
Our model-based fair value for Atlas Arteria is A$4.08 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$3.73.
What is the quality score of ALX?
Atlas Arteria has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Atlas Arteria (ALX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$4.08 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$3.41, optimistic scenario A$5.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Atlas Arteria stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$4.08, about +9% upside versus a price of A$3.73 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$3.41, optimistic scenario A$5.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Atlas Arteria (ALX)?
Atlas Arteria reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$157M (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Atlas Arteria pay a dividend?
Atlas Arteria currently shows a dividend yield of 5.36% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Atlas Arteria (ALX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Atlas Arteria would have to grow free cash flow by -4.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.9 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALX use?
Our models discount Atlas Arteria at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Atlas Arteria that is -4.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Atlas Arteria (ALX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Atlas Arteria grew +8.9 % a year. The price currently implies -4.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Atlas Arteria (ALX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Atlas Arteria (-4.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Atlas Arteria (ALX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.33 %: that much free cash flow Atlas Arteria produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Atlas Arteria (ALX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Atlas Arteria it is A$4.08 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of A$3.73. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Atlas Arteria stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, ALX trades below its calculated fair value: price A$3.73, fair value A$4.08, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$3.73); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$4.08). For Atlas Arteria the two are A$0.3510 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Atlas Arteria worth?
The market values Atlas Arteria at about A$5.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is A$3.73; our models calculate a fair value of A$4.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALX?
Our models span a range for Atlas Arteria: cautious scenario A$3.41, base A$4.08, optimistic A$5.31 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price A$3.73). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALX?
Atlas Arteria trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 46.6 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$4.08 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 29.8 (reported for FY2025: 20.9). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 32.8. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 44.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Atlas Arteria (ALX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Atlas Arteria (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 0.6%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALX from its 52-week high?
Atlas Arteria trades at A$3.73, about 24% below its 52-week high of A$4.89 and 2% above the low of A$3.66 (as of Nov 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$4.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Atlas Arteria?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Transurban Group, China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings, Jiangsu Expressway Company, Shandong Hi-speed Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Atlas Arteria stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price A$3.73, calculated fair value A$4.08 (+9%), Quality Score 66/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALX calculated?
We run Atlas Arteria through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$4.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Atlas Arteria currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Atlas Arteria (ALX)?
The closing price on Nov 2, 2026 was A$3.73. Our model-based fair value is A$4.08, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Atlas Arteria right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Atlas Arteria
How large is the market capitalisation of Atlas Arteria (ALX)?
The market capitalisation of Atlas Arteria is A$5.4B (≈ $3.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Atlas Arteria (ALX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Atlas Arteria is 75.6 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Atlas Arteria (ALX)?
Earnings per share at Atlas Arteria are A$0.0800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 46.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Atlas Arteria (ALX)?
The dividend yield of Atlas Arteria is 5.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the return on equity of Atlas Arteria (ALX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Atlas Arteria is 0.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Atlas Arteria (ALX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Atlas Arteria is −0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Atlas Arteria (ALX)?
The operating margin of Atlas Arteria is −24.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Atlas Arteria (ALX)?
Revenue at Atlas Arteria is growing −4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Atlas Arteria (ALX)?
Earnings per share at Atlas Arteria are growing +8.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Atlas Arteria (ALX) carry?
The net debt of Atlas Arteria is A$1.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 1, 2026