ANRG.TO (ANRG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of ANRG.TO C$0.54, price C$2.49, upside -78.2%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.2150 – C$25.95 · fair‑value band C$0.4165 – C$0.7055 · the C$2.49 price screens above the C$0.5440 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Anaergia Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides solutions for the generation of renewable energy and conversion of waste to resources in Italy, North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three segments: Capital Sales; Operation & Maintenance Services; and Build, Own, and Operate.
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Anaergia Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides solutions for the generation of renewable energy and conversion of waste to resources in Italy, North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three segments: Capital Sales; Operation & Maintenance Services; and Build, Own, and Operate. The company offers OREX, a waste processing solution that capture and process organic waste contained within mixed municipal solid wastes; Omnivore anaerobic digestion to produce valuable biogas and a nutrient rich soil amendment byproduct; membrane-based system to upgrade biogas and create pipeline; liquid treatment for water re-use and nutrient recovery; and residue treatment solutions. It provides wastewater resource recovery, municipal solid waste, and agricultural waste solutions. Anaergia Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Burlington, Canada.
Stock analysis
ANRG.TO (ANRG) currently trades at C$2.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.5440, implying the stock looks roughly 357.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$0.7600 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the C$2.49 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at C$0.4500, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: C$0.4165 (bear) to C$0.7055 (bull), the price of C$2.49 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
ANRG.TO reported revenue of C$180M in FY2025 versus C$154M in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was C$7.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$426M (≈ $300M) · P/E ratio 49.8 · P/S ratio 1.92 · EPS (TTM) C$0.0500 · Net margin 3.9% · Return on equity −5.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −11.9% · Operating margin −2.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −78%, ANRG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$0.4165Fair Value C$0.5440Bull C$0.7055
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.0373 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+61.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−23.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−23.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → −8%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.7%/yr over ~5Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+63.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+18.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +60.3% a year for the price and +16.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 163 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−78.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−1.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)3.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−2.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth122.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)49.8× · Priciest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)2.02× · Pricier than median
P/FCF130.5× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 81
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ANRG.TO Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ANRG
Frequently asked questions
Is ANRG.TO (ANRG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$0.5440 versus a price of C$2.49, about −78% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ANRG?
Our model-based fair value for ANRG.TO is C$0.5440 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$2.49.
What is the quality score of ANRG?
ANRG.TO has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ANRG.TO (ANRG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$0.5440 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$0.4165, optimistic scenario C$0.7055. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ANRG.TO stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$0.5440, about −78% upside versus a price of C$2.49 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$0.4165, optimistic scenario C$0.7055. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ANRG.TO (ANRG)?
ANRG.TO reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$211M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into ANRG.TO (ANRG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ANRG.TO would have to grow free cash flow by +63.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ANRG use?
Our models discount ANRG.TO at 15.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 2.18, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ANRG.TO that is +63.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ANRG.TO (ANRG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ANRG.TO grew +7.1 % a year. The price currently implies +63.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ANRG.TO (ANRG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ANRG.TO (+63.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ANRG.TO (ANRG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.77 %: that much free cash flow ANRG.TO produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ANRG.TO (ANRG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ANRG.TO it is C$0.5440 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of C$2.49. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ANRG.TO stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, ANRG trades above its calculated fair value: price C$2.49, fair value C$0.5440, a gap of about −78% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ANRG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$2.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$0.5440). For ANRG.TO the two are C$1.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ANRG.TO worth?
The market values ANRG.TO at about C$426M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is C$2.49; our models calculate a fair value of C$0.5440 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ANRG?
Our models span a range for ANRG.TO: cautious scenario C$0.4165, base C$0.5440, optimistic C$0.7055 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price C$2.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ANRG?
ANRG.TO trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 49.8 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$0.5440 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 2.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of ANRG.TO (ANRG)?
Balance-sheet figures for ANRG.TO (as of Sep 27, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ANRG from its 52-week high?
ANRG.TO trades at C$2.49, about 27% below its 52-week high of C$3.40 and 26% above the low of C$1.97 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$0.5440 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ANRG.TO?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ANRG.TO stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price C$2.49, calculated fair value C$0.5440 (−78%), Quality Score 40/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ANRG calculated?
We run ANRG.TO through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$0.5440, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. ANRG.TO itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ANRG.TO (ANRG)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was C$2.49. Our model-based fair value is C$0.5440, about −78% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ANRG.TO right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$0.7055). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of ANRG.TO
How large is the market capitalisation of ANRG.TO (ANRG)?
The market capitalisation of ANRG.TO is C$426M (≈ $300M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ANRG.TO (ANRG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ANRG.TO is 1.92 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ANRG.TO (ANRG)?
Earnings per share at ANRG.TO are C$0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 49.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ANRG.TO (ANRG)?
The net margin of ANRG.TO is 3.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ANRG.TO (ANRG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ANRG.TO is −5.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ANRG.TO (ANRG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ANRG.TO is −11.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ANRG.TO (ANRG)?
The operating margin of ANRG.TO is −2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ANRG.TO (ANRG)?
Revenue at ANRG.TO is growing +122% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does ANRG.TO (ANRG) carry?
The net debt of ANRG.TO is C$21.2M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026