Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk IDR 1,593, price IDR 3,280, upside -51.4%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1,074 IDR – 4,435 IDR · fair‑value band 915.81 IDR – 3,170 IDR · the 3,280 IDR price screens above the 1,593 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Antam (Persero) Tbk operates as a diversified metals and mining company in Indonesia. The company operates through three segments: Nickel, Precious Metals and Refinery, and Bauxite and Alumina. The company is involved in the exploration, excavation, processing, and marketing of alumina, nickel ore, ferronickel, gold, silver, bauxite, and coal.
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PT Antam (Persero) Tbk operates as a diversified metals and mining company in Indonesia. The company operates through three segments: Nickel, Precious Metals and Refinery, and Bauxite and Alumina. The company is involved in the exploration, excavation, processing, and marketing of alumina, nickel ore, ferronickel, gold, silver, bauxite, and coal. It also engages in construction, trading, industry, mining, agriculture, printing, and ground transportation businesses; and provision of industrial area management services. In addition, the company exports its products. The company was formerly known as PT Aneka Tambang Tbk and changed its name to PT Antam (Persero) Tbk in February 2026. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Antam (Persero) Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Mineral Industri Indonesia (Persero).
Stock analysis
Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM) currently trades at 3,280 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,593 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 105.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 12,917 IDR per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the 3,280 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 984.15 IDR, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 915.81 IDR (bear) to 3,170 IDR (bull), the price of 3,280 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk reported revenue of 84.6T IDR in FY2025 versus 38.4T IDR in FY2021, a compound +21.8%/yr. Reported net income was 7.2T IDR in FY2025, compounding +40.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 78.8T IDR (≈ $7.9B) · P/E ratio 9.3 · P/S ratio 0.79 · EPS (TTM) 353.05 IDR · Net margin 8.5% · Return on equity 24.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.7% · Operating margin 15.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −51%, ANTM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 915.81 IDRFair Value 1,593 IDRBull 3,170 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (219.47 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +23.2% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+38.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+38.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.44% vs 36%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 8%
2025 sits 98% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.6%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.5% a year for the price and +10.3% for the forecasts.
Compare Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−50% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)25% · Above median
Return on assets11% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)10% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)9.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.16× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.87× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF0.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA6.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.00× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)61· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)99· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 20
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1,593 IDR versus a price of 3,280 IDR, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ANTM?
Our model-based fair value for Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk is 1,593 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 3,280 IDR.
What is the quality score of ANTM?
Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1,593 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 915.81 IDR, optimistic scenario 3,170 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1,593 IDR, about −51% upside versus a price of 3,280 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 915.81 IDR, optimistic scenario 3,170 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM)?
Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 87.8T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +8.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ANTM use?
Our models discount Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk that is +8.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk grew +25.3 % a year. The price currently implies +8.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (+8.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.27 %: that much free cash flow Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk it is 1,593 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 3,280 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ANTM trades above its calculated fair value: price 3,280 IDR, fair value 1,593 IDR, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ANTM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (3,280 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1,593 IDR). For Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk the two are 1,687 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk worth?
The market values Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk at about 78.8T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 3,280 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 1,593 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ANTM?
Our models span a range for Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk: cautious scenario 915.81 IDR, base 1,593 IDR, optimistic 3,170 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 3,280 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ANTM?
Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 1,593 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.0, P/B 2.2, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 6.6.
What is the PEG ratio of ANTM?
The PEG ratio of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk is 0.00 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 24.7%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ANTM from its 52-week high?
Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk trades at 3,280 IDR, about 26% below its 52-week high of 4,435 IDR and 39% above the low of 2,358 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1,593 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Zijin Mining Group, Newmont Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 3,280 IDR, calculated fair value 1,593 IDR (−51%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ANTM calculated?
We run Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1,593 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 3,280 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 1,593 IDR, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (3,170 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (915.81 IDR to 3,170 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM)?
The market capitalisation of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk is 78.8T IDR (≈ $7.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk is 0.79 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM)?
Earnings per share at Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk are 353.05 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM)?
The net margin of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk is 8.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk is 24.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk is 10.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM)?
The operating margin of Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk is 15.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM)?
Revenue at Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk is growing +12.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM)?
Earnings per share at Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk are growing +59.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk (ANTM) hold?
Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk holds more cash than debt, 3.9T IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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