Ethos Technologies Inc (LIFE) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $1.5B
Ethos Technologies Inc
LIFE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 7, 2026
From 21 valuation models · updated 34 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 7, 2026, revised from $13.66 to $17.91 (+31.1%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +67.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 43% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($11.40 to $22.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (6 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
6‑month range $9.85 – $31.61 · fair‑value band $11.40 – $22.02 · the $31.61 price screens above the $17.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Jul 7, 2026.
Analysis
Ethos Technologies Inc (LIFE) currently trades at $31.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.91, implying the stock looks roughly 43.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ethos Technologies Inc generated revenue of $486M at a net margin of -22.1%. Revenue grew 103.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -29.1%. Fundamentals as of Jul 7, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $11.40 (bear case) to $22.02 (bull case); at $31.61, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 234% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -38% fair-value upside, at -43%, LIFE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 21 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($103.80) versus Economic Profit ($19.89). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ethos Technologies Inc. provides third-party administrator services for insurance policies in the United States. The company offers Ethos, a three-sided technology platform that serves an ecosystem of consumers, agents, and carriers.
Full company description
Ethos Technologies Inc. provides third-party administrator services for insurance policies in the United States. The company offers Ethos, a three-sided technology platform that serves an ecosystem of consumers, agents, and carriers. It also provides term life insurance, whole life insurance, and indexed universal life insurance products, as well as wills and estate planning, and supplemental health insurance products. The company was formerly known as Ethos Insurance Corporation and changed its name to Ethos Technologies Inc. in August 2016. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is based in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2023 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ethos Technologies Inc reported revenue of $388M in FY2025 versus $160M in FY2023, a compound +55.8%/yr. Reported net income was $71.2M in FY2025, compounding +549.0%/yr from FY2023.
LIFE screens 43% overvalued. Compare with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc →
Peer Group
Insurance Brokers · 36 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance Brokers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 7, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc MRSH | $182.18 | $112.25 | -38% |
| Aon plc AON | $367.21 | $224.91 | -39% |
| Arthur J. Gallagher & Co AJG | $253.09 | $75.58 | -70% |
| Willis Towers Watson Public Limited WTW | $285.12 | $220.92 | -23% |
| Brown & Brown, Inc BRO | $67.66 | $40.43 | -40% |
| Erie Indemnity Company ERIE | $227.31 | $157.43 | -31% |
| PB Fintech Limited POLICYBZR | ₹1,574 | ₹188.49 | -88% |
| Neptune Insurance Holdings NP | $31.03 | $3.52 | -89% |
| CorVel Corporation CRVL | $62.29 | $47.59 | -24% |
| Accelerant Holdings ARX | $13.52 | $18.06 | +34% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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