ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of ARKO Petroleum Corp. $10.33, price $16.97, upside -39.1%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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ARKO Petroleum Corp. operates as a fuel distributor in North America. The company operates through three segments: Wholesale, Fleet Fueling, and GPMP. The Wholesale segment supplies fuel to gas stations operated by third-party dealers, sub-wholesalers, and bulk and spot purchasers.
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ARKO Petroleum Corp. operates as a fuel distributor in North America. The company operates through three segments: Wholesale, Fleet Fueling, and GPMP. The Wholesale segment supplies fuel to gas stations operated by third-party dealers, sub-wholesalers, and bulk and spot purchasers. The Fleet Fueling segment engages in the operation of proprietary and third-party cardlock locations that sell fuel to light industrial trucks and commercial vehicles, and municipal entities. The GPMP segment sells and supplies fuel to ARKO retail sites. The company was incorporated in 2025 and is based in Richmond, Virginia. ARKO Petroleum Corp. is a subsidiary of Arko Convenience Stores LLC.
Stock analysis
ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC) currently trades at $16.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.33, implying the stock looks roughly 64.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $38.91 per share, and 8 of the 23 models we run sit above the $16.97 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.97, and 15 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $7.23 (bear) to $13.43 (bull), the price of $16.97 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
ARKO Petroleum Corp. reported revenue of $7.6B in FY2025 versus $13.4B in FY2018, a compound −7.7%/yr. Reported net income was $22.7M in FY2025, compounding −37.6%/yr from FY2018.
Key figures
Market cap $1.5B · P/E ratio 24.3 · P/S ratio 0.07 · EPS (TTM) $0.7600 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 0.3% · Return on equity 64.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −61% fair-value upside, at −39%, APC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $7.23Fair Value $10.33Bull $13.43
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3658 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+69.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+68.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Profit margin 2018 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 1%
2025 sits 218% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−4.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.4% a year for the price and −7.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 110 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−39% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)64% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.05× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)24.3× · Pricier than median
P/B4.14× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.27× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF23.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA10.9× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 15
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)48· sector 81
DIVIDEND (yield)31· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.33 versus a price of $16.97, about −39% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of APC?
Our model-based fair value for ARKO Petroleum Corp. is $10.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.97.
What is the quality score of APC?
ARKO Petroleum Corp. has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.23, optimistic scenario $13.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ARKO Petroleum Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.33, about −39% upside versus a price of $16.97 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.23, optimistic scenario $13.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC)?
ARKO Petroleum Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does ARKO Petroleum Corp. pay a dividend?
ARKO Petroleum Corp. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.53% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ARKO Petroleum Corp. would have to grow free cash flow by +4.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 7 years revenue grew -7.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of APC use?
Our models discount ARKO Petroleum Corp. at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ARKO Petroleum Corp. that is +4.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC) delivered so far?
Over the past 7 years revenue at ARKO Petroleum Corp. grew -7.7 % a year. The price currently implies +4.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ARKO Petroleum Corp. (+4.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.34 %: that much free cash flow ARKO Petroleum Corp. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ARKO Petroleum Corp. it is $10.33 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $16.97. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ARKO Petroleum Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, APC trades above its calculated fair value: price $16.97, fair value $10.33, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of APC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.33). For ARKO Petroleum Corp. the two are $6.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ARKO Petroleum Corp. worth?
The market values ARKO Petroleum Corp. at about $1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $16.97; our models calculate a fair value of $10.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about APC?
Our models span a range for ARKO Petroleum Corp.: cautious scenario $7.23, base $10.33, optimistic $13.43 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $16.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of APC?
ARKO Petroleum Corp. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.33 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.1, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 10.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC)?
Balance-sheet figures for ARKO Petroleum Corp. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 64.4%, debt of 1.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to ARKO Petroleum Corp.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ARKO Petroleum Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $16.97, calculated fair value $10.33 (−39%), Quality Score 56/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of APC calculated?
We run ARKO Petroleum Corp. through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. ARKO Petroleum Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $16.97. Our model-based fair value is $10.33, about −39% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ARKO Petroleum Corp. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($7.23 to $13.43) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of ARKO Petroleum Corp.
How large is the market capitalisation of ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC)?
The market capitalisation of ARKO Petroleum Corp. is $1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ARKO Petroleum Corp. is 0.07 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC)?
Earnings per share at ARKO Petroleum Corp. are $0.7600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC)?
The dividend yield of ARKO Petroleum Corp. is 1.5% (payout 34.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC)?
The net margin of ARKO Petroleum Corp. is 0.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ARKO Petroleum Corp. is 64.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ARKO Petroleum Corp. is 6.7% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC)?
The operating margin of ARKO Petroleum Corp. is 1.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC)?
Revenue at ARKO Petroleum Corp. is growing −0.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC)?
Earnings per share at ARKO Petroleum Corp. are growing +51.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC) carry?
The net debt of ARKO Petroleum Corp. is $3.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 55.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026