American Public Education, Inc (APEI) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $959M
American Public Education, Inc
APEI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from $38.91 to $37.85 (−2.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −11.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 26% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($47.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.89 – $60.86 · fair‑value band $28.39 – $47.31 · the $51.24 price screens above the $37.85 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
American Public Education, Inc (APEI) currently trades at $51.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.85, implying the stock looks roughly 26.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, American Public Education, Inc generated revenue of $659M at a net margin of 6.1%. Revenue grew 6.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $13.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $28.39 (bear case) to $47.31 (bull case); at $51.24, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 85% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at -26%, APEI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($43.84) versus Dividend Discount ($1.92). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
American Public Education, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and campus-based postsecondary education services in the United States. It operates through three segments: American Public University System, Rasmussen University, and Hondros College of Nursing.
Full company description
American Public Education, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and campus-based postsecondary education services in the United States. It operates through three segments: American Public University System, Rasmussen University, and Hondros College of Nursing. The company offers 181 degree programs, 110 certificate programs, and four diploma programs in various fields of study, including public service-focused fields, such as nursing, national security, military studies, intelligence, and homeland security, as well as traditional academic fields comprising business, health science, information technology, justice studies, education, and liberal arts; and career learning and leadership training in-person and online to the federal workforce. It also provides nursing-and health sciences-focused postsecondary education; and pre-licensure nursing education services focusing on a diploma in practical nursing and associate degree in nursing, as well as a bachelor of science in nursing. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Charles Town, West Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
American Public Education, Inc reported revenue of $649M in FY2025 versus $419M in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was $31.6M in FY2025, compounding +15.5%/yr from FY2021.
APEI screens 26% overvalued. Compare with New Oriental Education & Technology Group →
Peer Group
Education & Training Services · 148 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Education & Training Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Oriental Education & Technology Group EDUN | 966.48 MXN | 897.37 MXN | -7% |
| TAL Education Group TAL | $10.24 | $15.60 | +52% |
| Laureate Education, Inc LAUR | $36.45 | $41.45 | +14% |
| Physicswallah Limited PWL | ₹131.59 | ₹14.81 | -89% |
| Grand Canyon Education, Inc LOPE | $149.00 | $152.01 | +2% |
| Covista Inc CVSA | $116.22 | $135.45 | +17% |
| Stride, Inc LRN | $83.39 | $139.45 | +67% |
| Universal Technical Institute, Inc UTI | $40.33 | $21.35 | -47% |
| Perdoceo Education Corporation PRDO | $31.66 | $41.45 | +31% |
| Strategic Education, Inc STRA | $84.18 | $105.48 | +25% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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