Applovin Corp (APP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Applovin Corp stock $299, price $272, upside +10.0%, quality 92 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.
Quality 92/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +30.4 %/yr in USD)
Highly profitable · 64.6% net margin (TTM)
Generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers(9/14)
Wide moat92/100
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +53%, profit +57%.
Fair value $298.93 · Fairly valued (+10.0%)
Neutral coverage
Insiders sold $197.3M (6M)
Some data
High debt
Quality growth
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Securities lawsuits over AI reliability and ads to minors🚩Unity and rivals could compress ad margins🚩Apple and Google platform rules could restrict data access
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.30 – $733.60 · fair‑value band $176.15 – $491.15 · the $271.75 price screens below the $298.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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AppLovin Corporation provides end-to-end artificial intelligence-powered advertising solutions for businesses in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Advertising and Apps.
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The company offers Axon Ads Manager, a suite of marketing solutions that enables developers to automate, optimize, and manage marketing efforts; MAX, an in-app bidding technology that optimizes the value of a publisher's advertising inventory by running a real-time competitive auction; Adjust, a measurement and analytics marketing platform; and Wurl, a connected TV platform, which distributes streaming video for content companies, provides advertising and publishing solutions.
It serves individuals, small and independent businesses, enterprises, advertisers and advertising networks, mobile app publishers, and indie studio developers. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.
Stock analysis
Applovin Corp (APP) currently trades at $271.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $298.93, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $551.10 per share, and 11 of the 23 models we run sit above the $271.75 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $38.43, and 12 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $176.15 (bear) to $491.15 (bull), the price of $271.75 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 92/100 (high quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Applovin Corp reported revenue of $5.5B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound +18.4%/yr. Reported net income was $3.3B in FY2025, compounding +211.4%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $91.8B Large · P/E ratio 18.3 · P/S ratio 13.4 · EPS (TTM) $14.85 · Net margin 64.6% · Return on equity 204% · Return on assets (EBIT) 21.2% · Operating margin 77.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 92 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 10%, APP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$176.15Fair Value $298.93Bull$491.15
Price $271.75 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($12.61 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 6 officers or directors sold shares worth $197.3M and none bought.
SaleMaynard G Webb JrDirector2× since Jun 5, 2026: 6,152 shares, avg. $551.67$3.4MJul 6, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleEduardo VivasDirector4× since Nov 10, 2025: 498,730 shares, avg. $529.70$264.2MJun 16, 2026
SaleArash Adam ForoughiCEO, Director, 10% owner9× since Nov 20, 2025: 299,666 shares, avg. $490.78$147.1MJun 12, 2026
SaleVictoria ValenzuelaCALO & Corp. Secretary2× since Dec 18, 2025: 27,609 shares, avg. $591.04$16.3MJun 4, 2026
SaleMatthew StumpfChief Financial Officer (CFO)2× since Nov 21, 2025: 13,936 shares, avg. $570.48$8.0MMay 28, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleVasily ShikinChief Technology Officer13× since Nov 24, 2025: 261,940 shares, avg. $504.74$132.2MMay 22, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDmitriy DoroshPrincipal Accounting Officer3,109 shares at $453.42$1.4MMar 13, 2026
SaleDawson Alyssa HarveyDirector2× since Nov 12, 2025: 350 shares, avg. $633.81$221,834Dec 8, 2025
SaleCraig Scott BillingsDirector2,350 shares at $592.92$1.4MNov 7, 2025
Plus 29 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+70.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+97.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+97.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → 76%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+25.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.5% a year for the price and +22.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Industry-leading margins and free cash flow from the AI advertising engine form the main strength while securities lawsuits over model reliability and ads to minors represent the key weakness.
Main risk: Unity and other ad platforms could improve their bidding and data use in auctions, reducing AppLovin’s take-rates and margins on its core mobile advertising marketplace.
Bull case: AppLovin could expand its Axon AI platform successfully into e-commerce and other verticals while defending its auction data advantages against rivals.
Bear case: If rivals like Unity gain ground in auctions and privacy rules tighten further on mobile platforms, AppLovin’s data-driven ad matching could lose effectiveness and its high margins could erode.
AppLovin’s AI advertising engine keeps producing industry-leading margins and substantial free cash flow that funds large-scale share repurchases. Yet securities lawsuits challenge the company’s statements on AI model reliability while another case alleges the platform delivered inappropriate ads to minors despite parental controls. Will operational strength resolve these legal questions or will they limit expansion into new advertiser verticals?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Advertising Agencies · 176 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score92 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)203.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets45.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)64.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)77.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)52.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.65× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Applovin Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/APP
Frequently asked questions
Is Applovin Corp (APP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $298.93 versus a price of $271.75, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of APP?
Our model-based fair value for Applovin Corp is $298.93 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $271.75.
What is the quality score of APP?
Applovin Corp has a Quality Score of 92/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Applovin Corp (APP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $298.93 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $176.15, optimistic scenario $491.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Applovin Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $298.93, about +10% upside versus a price of $271.75 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $176.15, optimistic scenario $491.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Applovin Corp (APP)?
Applovin Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Applovin Corp (APP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Applovin Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +17.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +30.5 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of APP use?
Our models discount Applovin Corp at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 2.50, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Applovin Corp that is +17.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Applovin Corp (APP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Applovin Corp grew +30.5 % a year. The price currently implies +17.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Applovin Corp (APP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Applovin Corp (+17.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Applovin Corp (APP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.29 %: that much free cash flow Applovin Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Applovin Corp (APP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Applovin Corp it is $298.93 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $271.75. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Applovin Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, APP trades below its calculated fair value: price $271.75, fair value $298.93, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of APP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($271.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($298.93). For Applovin Corp the two are $27.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Applovin Corp worth?
The market values Applovin Corp at about $91.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $271.75; our models calculate a fair value of $298.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about APP?
Our models span a range for Applovin Corp: cautious scenario $176.15, base $298.93, optimistic $491.15 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $271.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of APP?
Applovin Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $298.93 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 43.0, P/S 13.4, EV/EBITDA 17.2.
What is the PEG ratio of APP?
The PEG ratio of Applovin Corp is 0.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Applovin Corp (APP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Applovin Corp (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 203.7%, debt of 1.65 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 92/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is APP from its 52-week high?
Applovin Corp trades at $271.75, about 63% below its 52-week high of $733.60 and 19% above the low of $228.50 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $298.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Applovin Corp?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Publicis Groupe S.A, Omnicom Group, Focus Media Information Technology Co, The Trade Desk, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Applovin Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $271.75, calculated fair value $298.93 (+10%), Quality Score 92/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of APP calculated?
We run Applovin Corp through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $298.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Applovin Corp currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Applovin Corp (APP)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $271.75. Our model-based fair value is $298.93, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Applovin Corp right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($176.15 to $491.15). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Applovin Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Applovin Corp (APP)?
The market capitalisation of Applovin Corp is $91.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Applovin Corp (APP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Applovin Corp is 13.4 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Applovin Corp (APP)?
Earnings per share at Applovin Corp are $14.85 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Applovin Corp (APP)?
The net margin of Applovin Corp is 64.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Applovin Corp (APP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Applovin Corp is 204% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Applovin Corp (APP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Applovin Corp is 21.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Applovin Corp (APP)?
The operating margin of Applovin Corp is 77.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Applovin Corp (APP)?
Revenue at Applovin Corp is growing +52.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Applovin Corp (APP)?
Earnings per share at Applovin Corp are growing +57.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Applovin Corp (APP) carry?
The net debt of Applovin Corp is $1.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 5, 2026