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Dogu Aras Enerji Yatirimlari AS (ARASE) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · TR · Market cap 27.7B TRY

DA Dogu Aras Enerji Yatirimlari AS ARASE · IS
Price123.00 TRY
Fair Value367.01 TRY
Upside+198.4%
Quality63/100
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Strengths

Trades 198% below our fair value of 367.01 TRY
Ranks above peers (10/13)
Wide moat 65/100

Risks

!Mixed Growth
!Thin margins · 7.0% net margin
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 7.0% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Ranks above peers (10/13)
Wide moat 65/100
Evidence: Medium Range 181.36 TRY – 901.56 TRY Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated today

Share price −1.3% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 198% undervalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (181.36 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The model range is unusually wide (181.36 TRY to 901.56 TRY). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

128.00 TRY 18.99 TRY Fair Value 367.01 TRY Nov 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.

How to read this chart

57‑month range 18.99 TRY – 128.00 TRY · fair‑value band 181.36 TRY – 901.56 TRY · the 123.00 TRY price screens below the 367.01 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.

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Analysis

Dogu Aras Enerji Yatirimlari AS (ARASE) currently trades at 123.00 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 367.01 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 198.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Dogu Aras Enerji Yatirimlari AS generated revenue of 35.1B TRY at a net margin of 7.0%. Revenue grew 30.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.0%. Net debt stands at 2.5B TRY. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 181.36 TRY (bear case) to 901.56 TRY (bull case); at 123.00 TRY, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 151% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -55% fair-value upside, at 198%, ARASE screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income 259.95 TRY 549.25 TRY 22,082 TRY 76
ROIC Compounder 194.68 TRY 292.35 TRY 421.11 TRY 72
Gordon GGM 6.04 TRY 12.55 TRY 19.91 TRY 70
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings 337.63 TRY 764.92 TRY 1,662 TRY 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 142.25 TRY 992.02 TRY 1,392 TRY 54
Lynch FV 512.51 TRY 732.16 TRY 951.81 TRY 50
PEG = 1.0 512.51 TRY 732.16 TRY 951.81 TRY 46
EPV 152.37 TRY 177.32 TRY 199.15 TRY 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 6.04 TRY 12.55 TRY 19.91 TRY 70
DDM Multi-Stage 6.04 TRY 10.58 TRY 13.17 TRY 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 282.41 TRY 376.54 TRY 470.68 TRY 63
P/S Multiple 176.14 TRY 234.85 TRY 293.56 TRY 58
P/B Multiple 52.62 TRY 70.16 TRY 87.71 TRY 55
EV/EBIT 199.15 TRY 264.64 TRY 330.13 TRY 53
EV/EBITDA 137.26 TRY 182.12 TRY 226.97 TRY 54
EV/Revenue 161.60 TRY 229.71 TRY 297.82 TRY 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 19.49 TRY 26.12 TRY 38.98 TRY 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income 259.95 TRY 549.25 TRY 22,082 TRY 76
ROIC Compounder 194.68 TRY 292.35 TRY 421.11 TRY 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 640.49 TRY 914.99 TRY 1,189 TRY 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (914.99 TRY) versus Dividend Discount (10.58 TRY). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 35.1B TRY
Revenue growth (YoY) +30.2%
Net margin 7.0%
Return on equity 13.0%
Free cash flow −1.8B TRY FY2023
P/E ratio 26.9
More key figures
Operating margin 26.3%
EPS (TTM) 4.58 TRY
EPS growth (YoY) +114%
Net debt 2.5B TRY FY2023

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 86

Profitability 92
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 80
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 81
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 90
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 96
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Dogu Aras Enerji Yatirimlari AS, through its subsidiaries, engages in the retail sale and distribution of electricity in Turkey. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in Erzurum, Turkey.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2019 – FY2023 · reported fiscal years

Dogu Aras Enerji Yatirimlari AS reported revenue of 23.5B TRY in FY2023 versus 2.0B TRY in FY2019, a compound +84.5%/yr. Reported net income was 5.2B TRY in FY2023, compounding +87.0%/yr from FY2019.

Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2023)
23.5B TRY
Latest YoY
+49.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+104.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+68.8%
Revenue +84.5%/yr
FY19 2.0B TRY
FY20 2.8B TRY
FY21 6.1B TRY
FY22 15.7B TRY
FY23 23.5B TRY
Net income +87.0%/yr
FY19 428M TRY
FY20 462M TRY
FY21 448M TRY
FY22 871M TRY
FY23 5.2B TRY

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dogu Aras Enerji Yatirimlari AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARASE

Peer Group

Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 79 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +198% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Return on assets 18% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 26% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 30% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 26.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.84× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.79× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 3.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 23
FUTURE100 · sector 0
PAST52 · sector 30
HEALTH99 · sector 71
DIVIDEND0 · sector 51

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 21, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Constellation Energy Corporation CEG $278.68 $88.09 -68%
Vistra Corp VST $146.68 $50.39 -66%
Adani Power Limited ADANIPOWER ₹206.10 ₹75.57 -63%
CGN Power Co 003816 ¥3.93 ¥2.79 -29%
Gulf Development Public Company GULF 65.00 THB 39.25 THB -40%
NRG Energy, Inc NRG $120.66 $53.91 -55%
Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL ₹1,583 ₹342.02 -78%
Talen Energy Corporation TLN $365.07 $43.55 -88%
Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 ¥6.29 ¥4.95 -21%
Power Assets Holdings 0006 HK$57.30 HK$30.76 -46%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Dogu Aras Enerji Yatirimlari AS (ARASE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 367.01 TRY versus a price of 123.00 TRY, about +198% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ARASE?
Our model-based fair value for Dogu Aras Enerji Yatirimlari AS is 367.01 TRY (as of Aug 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 123.00 TRY.
What is the quality score of ARASE?
Dogu Aras Enerji Yatirimlari AS has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Dogu Aras Enerji Yatirimlari AS (ARASE)?
Dogu Aras Enerji Yatirimlari AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 35.1B TRY (latest available figure, as of Aug 21, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ARASE?
The net profit margin of Dogu Aras Enerji Yatirimlari AS is about 7.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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