Argo Defence Group (ARGO) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · SE

A solid business, but screening 84% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 2.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• A fairly wide model range (kr 1.40 to kr 2.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (8 months)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

8‑month range kr 13.66 – kr 24.90 · fair‑value band kr 1.40 – kr 2.65 · the kr 13.66 price screens above the kr 2.12 fair value. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Argo Defence Group (ARGO) currently trades at kr 13.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 2.12, implying the stock looks roughly 84.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, Argo Defence Group generated revenue of 94.5M SEK at a net margin of -11.7%. It earns a return on equity of -10.8%. Net debt stands at 3.6M SEK. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from kr 1.40 (bear case) to kr 2.65 (bull case); at kr 13.66, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -60% fair-value upside, at -84%, ARGO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Argo Defence Group Ab (Publ) is a defence company focuses on procurements, supply sourcing, and delivery of defence materiel to FMV and equivalent authorities in Sweden and Ukraine. The company operates through three business areas: Defence materiel, Counter-explosive risk solutions, and Airfield operations.

Full company description

Argo Defence Group Ab (Publ) is a defence company focuses on procurements, supply sourcing, and delivery of defence materiel to FMV and equivalent authorities in Sweden and Ukraine. The company operates through three business areas: Defence materiel, Counter-explosive risk solutions, and Airfield operations. The Defence materiel, develops and delivers advanced equipment, and systems that strengthen both national defence capabilities and civil protection. Its products include demining equipment, medical equipment, backup power systems, freight containers, and radio link antennas; The Counter-Explosive Risk Solutions, provides solutions for mine clearance, risk management, and the safe destruction of conventional weapons and ammunition; and The Airfield Operations, engages in designs, integrates, and constructs technical systems and infrastructure for airports and other high security facilities. It offers demining systems, explosive risk management, high-security infrastructure, and airfield operations. The company serves government agencies, defence, civil defence, and critical infrastructure. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden. Argo Defence Group Ab (Publ) operates as a subsidiary of Swedish Net Holding Ab.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2023 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Argo Defence Group reported revenue of kr 162M in FY2025 versus kr 24.1M in FY2023, a compound +159.5%/yr. Reported net income was −kr 10.0M in FY2025.

ARGO screens 84% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →

Peer Group

Aerospace & Defense · 225 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.