Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA stock NOK 106, price NOK 339, that is 68.9% below the price, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 22.39 – kr 360.40 · fair‑value band kr 76.88 – kr 196.36 · the kr 339.40 price screens above the kr 105.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Kongsberg Gruppen ASA, together with its subsidiaries, provides high-tech systems and solutions primarily to customers in the defense markets. It operates through Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace, Kongsberg Discovery, and Other segments.
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The Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace segment provides various systems and services to the defence industry.
It provides air defence and combat systems, sonars, and navigation for marine vessels and submarines, as well as integrated command and control systems; remote control weapon stations for land-based vehicles and marine vessels; remote tower solutions for airports; products for military tactical communication; naval strike and air-to-surface missiles; and components and services to the space industry, as well as port monitoring systems.
This segment also offers lightweight composite and titanium components for F-35 combat aircraft, as well as maintenance and lifecycle services for military and civil capabilities.
The Kongsberg Discovery segment offers subsea positioning and communication technologies; sustainable management technologies; and technologies that provide its customers with information about position, speed, acceleration, and heading, as well as uncrewed platforms that deliver autonomous underwater and surface vessels for research, defence, and commercial use.
The Other segment focuses on digitalization within the oil and gas, and renewable energy markets. It operates primarily in Norway, Europe, North America, South America, Asia, Australia, and Africa.
The company's distribution channels, including direct sales, partnerships and alliances, online platforms, marketing advanced technology. Kongsberg Gruppen ASA was founded in 1814 and is headquartered in Kongsberg, Norway.
Stock analysis
Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG) currently trades at kr 339.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 105.59, 69% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 182.09 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the kr 339.40 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at kr 67.63, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 76.88 (bear) to kr 196.36 (bull), the price of kr 339.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Kongsberg Gruppen ASA reported revenue of 31.6B NOK in FY2025 versus 27.4B NOK in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was 8.0B NOK in FY2025, compounding +38.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 299B NOK (≈ $32.0B) Large · P/E ratio 58.4 · P/S ratio 14.7 · EPS (TTM) kr 5.81 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 25.2% · Return on equity 32.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 76 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −69%, KOG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 76.88Fair Value kr 105.59Bullkr 196.36
Price kr 339.40 · Downside -68.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 3.07 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+34.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+34.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Per share before 2018divided by the spin-off factor 1.1511
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.30.1% vs 25.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 17%
2025 sits 114% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+40.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Norway: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.0% a year for the price and +36.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (43 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Solid profitability forms the main strength while limited public signals on moat factors and unconfirmed government contract dependence mark the key weakness.
Main risk: Norwegian authorities could revoke export licences for sensitive defence systems like the Naval Strike Missile, causing contract cancellations and compensation demands from foreign governments that might reduce defence revenues and margins.
Bull case: Kongsberg could deepen integration of its command systems with lower-cost effectors from partners and expand local production partnerships to secure more European contracts despite export hurdles.
Bear case: Repeated export licence issues and loss of contracts to lower-cost rivals could shrink the defence order backlog and limit growth in the core missile and air-defence businesses.
Kongsberg has landed sizable new European air defense contracts including a NOK 10 billion NASAMS order from Belgium and expansions for the Netherlands. These build on its established missile and systems capabilities in a sector seeing rising demand. Will the surge in government orders drive steady execution and growth across the defense businesses, or will integration challenges and dependence on public budgets create volatility instead?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 241 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−68.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)32.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)20.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)16.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)29.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)58.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B13.22× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)8.36× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow30.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA41.6× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.59× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 64
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 40
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)13· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kongsberg Gruppen ASA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KOG
Frequently asked questions
Is Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 105.59 versus a price of kr 339.40, about 69% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KOG?
Our model-based fair value for Kongsberg Gruppen ASA is kr 105.59 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 339.40.
What is the quality score of KOG?
Kongsberg Gruppen ASA has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 105.59 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 76.88, optimistic scenario kr 196.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kongsberg Gruppen ASA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 105.59, about 69% lower versus a price of kr 339.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 76.88, optimistic scenario kr 196.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG)?
Kongsberg Gruppen ASA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 35.7B NOK (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Kongsberg Gruppen ASA pay a dividend?
Kongsberg Gruppen ASA currently shows a dividend yield of 0.65% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kongsberg Gruppen ASA would have to grow free cash flow by +10.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.3 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KOG use?
Our models discount Kongsberg Gruppen ASA at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for Norway. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kongsberg Gruppen ASA that is +10.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kongsberg Gruppen ASA grew +4.3 % a year. The price currently implies +10.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (+10.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.32 %: that much free cash flow Kongsberg Gruppen ASA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kongsberg Gruppen ASA it is kr 105.59 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of kr 339.40. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kongsberg Gruppen ASA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, KOG trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 339.40, fair value kr 105.59, a gap of about −69% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KOG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 339.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 105.59). For Kongsberg Gruppen ASA the two are kr 233.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kongsberg Gruppen ASA worth?
The market values Kongsberg Gruppen ASA at about 299B NOK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is kr 339.40; our models calculate a fair value of kr 105.59 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KOG?
Our models span a range for Kongsberg Gruppen ASA: cautious scenario kr 76.88, base kr 105.59, optimistic kr 196.36 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price kr 339.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KOG?
Kongsberg Gruppen ASA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 58.4 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 105.59 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 13.2, P/S 8.4, EV/EBITDA 41.6.
What is the PEG ratio of KOG?
The PEG ratio of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA is 1.59 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 32.6%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KOG from its 52-week high?
Kongsberg Gruppen ASA trades at kr 339.40, about 6% below its 52-week high of kr 360.40 and 81% above the low of kr 187.73 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 105.59 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kongsberg Gruppen ASA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kongsberg Gruppen ASA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price kr 339.40, calculated fair value kr 105.59 (−69%), Quality Score 70/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KOG calculated?
We run Kongsberg Gruppen ASA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 105.59, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Kongsberg Gruppen ASA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was kr 339.40. Our model-based fair value is kr 105.59, about 69% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kongsberg Gruppen ASA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 196.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (70/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (kr 76.88 to kr 196.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG) come from?
Earnings per share at Kongsberg Gruppen ASA grew +4.8 % a year from 2011 to 2022. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.8 %, EBIT margin −1.7 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA
How large is the market capitalisation of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG)?
The market capitalisation of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA is 299B NOK (≈ $32.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA is 14.7 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG)?
Earnings per share at Kongsberg Gruppen ASA are kr 5.81 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 58.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG)?
The dividend yield of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA is 0.6% (payout 37.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG)?
The net margin of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA is 25.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA is 32.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA is 7.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG)?
The operating margin of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA is 16.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG)?
Revenue at Kongsberg Gruppen ASA is growing +29.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG)?
Earnings per share at Kongsberg Gruppen ASA are growing −1.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG) hold?
Kongsberg Gruppen ASA holds more cash than debt, 3.8B NOK net (fiscal year 2021). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026