Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Atlas Resources Tbk IDR 152, price IDR 334, upside -54.6%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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PT Atlas Resources Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, acquires, explores, develops, produces, and sells coal in Indonesia and internationally. The company produces high-calorie thermal coal and metallurgical coal for use in the steel production and power generation, cement, and other general manufacturing facilities.
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PT Atlas Resources Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, acquires, explores, develops, produces, and sells coal in Indonesia and internationally. The company produces high-calorie thermal coal and metallurgical coal for use in the steel production and power generation, cement, and other general manufacturing facilities. It also holds various mining concessions. In addition, the company is involved in trading services, construction, transportation, workshop, printing, industry and agriculture; investments; logistics; and mines and trades coal, as well as builds coal hauling road and develops infrastructures. PT Atlas Resources Tbk was founded in 2007 and is based in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII) currently trades at 334.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 151.64 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 120.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 454.92 IDR per share, and 2 of the 10 models we run sit above the 334.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 151.64 IDR, and 8 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 106.15 IDR (bear) to 151.64 IDR (bull), the price of 334.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Atlas Resources Tbk reported revenue of $359M in FY2025 versus $115M in FY2021, a compound +32.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3M in FY2025, compounding +8.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.1T IDR (≈ $64.2M) · EPS (TTM) −16.32 IDR · Net margin 0.4% · Return on equity 0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% · Operating margin 15.1% · Revenue (TTM) $372M · Revenue growth (YoY) +8.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −55%, ARII screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 106.15 IDRFair Value 151.64 IDRBull 151.64 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+53.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +28.9% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−29.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−33% → −3%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 101 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Above median
Fair Value upside−55% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.76× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.87× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.17× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA2.3× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)42· sector 4
PAST (return on equity)3· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)62· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 54
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 151.64 IDR versus a price of 334.00 IDR, about −55% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARII?
Our model-based fair value for Atlas Resources Tbk is 151.64 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 334.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of ARII?
Atlas Resources Tbk has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 151.64 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario 106.15 IDR, optimistic scenario 151.64 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Atlas Resources Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 151.64 IDR, about −55% upside versus a price of 334.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 106.15 IDR, optimistic scenario 151.64 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
Atlas Resources Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $372M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Atlas Resources Tbk it is 151.64 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 334.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Atlas Resources Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ARII trades above its calculated fair value: price 334.00 IDR, fair value 151.64 IDR, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARII?
No. The price is what the market pays today (334.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (151.64 IDR). For Atlas Resources Tbk the two are 182.36 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Atlas Resources Tbk worth?
The market values Atlas Resources Tbk at about 1.1T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 334.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 151.64 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARII?
Our models span a range for Atlas Resources Tbk: cautious scenario 106.15 IDR, base 151.64 IDR, optimistic 151.64 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 334.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
Balance-sheet figures for Atlas Resources Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 0.8%, debt of 0.76 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARII from its 52-week high?
Atlas Resources Tbk trades at 334.00 IDR, about 1% below its 52-week high of 336.00 IDR and 30% above the low of 256.00 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 151.64 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Atlas Resources Tbk?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Yankuang Energy Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Atlas Resources Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 334.00 IDR, calculated fair value 151.64 IDR (−55%), Quality Score 47/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARII calculated?
We run Atlas Resources Tbk through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 151.64 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Atlas Resources Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 334.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 151.64 IDR, about −55% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Atlas Resources Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (151.64 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Atlas Resources Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
The market capitalisation of Atlas Resources Tbk is 1.1T IDR (≈ $64.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
Earnings per share at Atlas Resources Tbk are −16.32 IDR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
The net margin of Atlas Resources Tbk is 0.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Atlas Resources Tbk is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Atlas Resources Tbk is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
The operating margin of Atlas Resources Tbk is 15.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
Revenue at Atlas Resources Tbk is growing +8.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
Earnings per share at Atlas Resources Tbk are growing −42.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII) generate?
The free cash flow of Atlas Resources Tbk is −$17.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII) carry?
The net debt of Atlas Resources Tbk is $62.0M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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