Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Atlas Resources Tbk stock IDR 170, price IDR 476, that is 64.3% below the price, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 10 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 144.00 IDR – 530.00 IDR · fair‑value band 118.84 IDR – 205.97 IDR · the 476.00 IDR price screens above the 169.78 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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PT Atlas Resources Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, acquires, explores, develops, produces, and sells coal in Indonesia and internationally.
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The company produces high-calorie thermal coal and metallurgical coal for use in the steel production and power generation, cement, and other general manufacturing facilities. It also holds various mining concessions.
In addition, the company is involved in trading services, construction, transportation, workshop, printing, industry and agriculture; investments; logistics; and mines and trades coal, as well as builds coal hauling road and develops infrastructures.
PT Atlas Resources Tbk was founded in 2007 and is based in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII) currently trades at 476.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 169.78 IDR, 64% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 181.11 IDR per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the 476.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 142.40 IDR, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 118.84 IDR (bear) to 205.97 IDR (bull), the price of 476.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Atlas Resources Tbk reported revenue of $359M in FY2025 versus $115M in FY2021, a compound +32.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3M in FY2025, compounding +8.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.8T IDR (≈ $99.1M) Micro · P/E ratio 19.7 · P/S ratio 0.07 · EPS (TTM) 24.15 IDR · Net margin 0.4% · Return on equity 13.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin 4.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 86% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −64%, ARII screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear118.84 IDRFair Value 169.78 IDRBull205.97 IDR
Price 476.00 IDR · Downside -64.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (20.71 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+53.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +28.9% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−29.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−33% → −3%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 82 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Below median
Fair Value upside−64.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets0.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)4.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)100.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.76× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)19.7× · Pricier than median
P/B1.35× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.42× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA4.1× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 60
PAST (return on equity)52· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)62· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 64
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 169.78 IDR versus a price of 476.00 IDR, about 64% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARII?
Our model-based fair value for Atlas Resources Tbk is 169.78 IDR (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 476.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of ARII?
Atlas Resources Tbk has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 169.78 IDR (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario 118.84 IDR, optimistic scenario 205.97 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Atlas Resources Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 169.78 IDR, about 64% lower versus a price of 476.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 118.84 IDR, optimistic scenario 205.97 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
Atlas Resources Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $437M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Atlas Resources Tbk it is 169.78 IDR per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of 476.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models in 5 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Atlas Resources Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, ARII trades above its calculated fair value: price 476.00 IDR, fair value 169.78 IDR, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARII?
No. The price is what the market pays today (476.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (169.78 IDR). For Atlas Resources Tbk the two are 306.22 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Atlas Resources Tbk worth?
The market values Atlas Resources Tbk at about 1.8T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is 476.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 169.78 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARII?
Our models span a range for Atlas Resources Tbk: cautious scenario 118.84 IDR, base 169.78 IDR, optimistic 205.97 IDR per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price 476.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARII?
Atlas Resources Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 169.78 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 4.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
Balance-sheet figures for Atlas Resources Tbk (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 13.1%, debt of 0.76 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARII from its 52-week high?
Atlas Resources Tbk trades at 476.00 IDR, about 10% below its 52-week high of 530.00 IDR and 86% above the low of 256.00 IDR (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 169.78 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Atlas Resources Tbk?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, China Coal Energy Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Atlas Resources Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price 476.00 IDR, calculated fair value 169.78 IDR (−64%), Quality Score 40/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARII calculated?
We run Atlas Resources Tbk through 10 models from 5 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 169.78 IDR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Atlas Resources Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 476.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 169.78 IDR, about 64% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Atlas Resources Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (205.97 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Atlas Resources Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
The market capitalisation of Atlas Resources Tbk is 1.8T IDR (≈ $99.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Atlas Resources Tbk is 0.07 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
Earnings per share at Atlas Resources Tbk are 24.15 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
The net margin of Atlas Resources Tbk is 0.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Atlas Resources Tbk is 13.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Atlas Resources Tbk is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
The operating margin of Atlas Resources Tbk is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
Revenue at Atlas Resources Tbk is growing +100% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII)?
Earnings per share at Atlas Resources Tbk are growing −42.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII) generate?
The free cash flow of Atlas Resources Tbk is −$17.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Atlas Resources Tbk (ARII) carry?
The net debt of Atlas Resources Tbk is $62.0M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026