Arkema S.A (ARKAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Arkema S.A $45.21, price $58.84, upside -23.2%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Arkema S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells specialty materials in Europe, the United States, Canada, Mexico, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Adhesive Solutions, Advanced Materials and Coating Solutions, and Intermediates.
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Arkema S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells specialty materials in Europe, the United States, Canada, Mexico, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Adhesive Solutions, Advanced Materials and Coating Solutions, and Intermediates. The company provides solutions for construction, renovation of buildings, and DIY; high performance adhesives for durable goods, and adhesive solutions for packaging and non-woven; and supplies technologies used in building activities for businesses and individuals, including sealants, tiles, flooring adhesives and waterproofing systems, and technologies used in automotive, textiles, glazing, flexible and rigid packaging, and hygiene markets. It also offers high performance polymers, such as specialty polyamides, PVDF, polyimides, fluorospecialties, and PEKK; and performance additives comprising interface agents combining specialty surfactants, molecular sieves, organic peroxides, thiochemicals, and hydrogen peroxide. In addition, the company provides lightweighting, new energies, access to water, bio-based products, and recycling solutions for automotive and transportation sectors, oil and gas, renewable energies, consumer goods, electronics, construction, coatings, animal nutrition and water treatment. Further, it offers coating solutions, including EU/US acrylics and coating resins; coating additives, such as sartomer photocure resins, and coatex rheology additives and specialties; decorative paints, industrial coatings, and adhesives; and solutions for applications in the paper, superabsorbent, water treatment and oil and gas extraction, and 3D printing and electronics markets. Additionally, the company provides fluorogases and asia acrylics; and industrial intermediate chemicals for construction, refrigeration and air conditioning, automotive, coatings, and water treatment sectors. Arkema S.A. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Puteaux, France.
Stock analysis
Arkema S.A (ARKAF) currently trades at $58.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $45.21, 23.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $62.00 per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the $58.84 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $11.16, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $35.79 (bear) to $45.21 (bull), the price of $58.84 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Arkema S.A reported revenue of €9.1B in FY2025 versus €9.5B in FY2021, a compound −1.2%/yr. Reported net income was €63.0M in FY2025, compounding −53.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.2B · P/E ratio 217.9 · P/S ratio 1.51 · EPS (TTM) $0.2700 · Dividend yield 6.1% · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 0.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −23%, ARKAF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $35.79Fair Value $45.21Bull $45.21
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.7% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−28.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−34.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−34.9% vs −14.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.8% a year for the price and +0.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arkema S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARKAF
Frequently asked questions
Is Arkema S.A (ARKAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $45.21 versus a price of $58.84, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARKAF?
Our model-based fair value for Arkema S.A is $45.21 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $58.84.
What is the quality score of ARKAF?
Arkema S.A has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arkema S.A (ARKAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $45.21 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $35.79, optimistic scenario $45.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arkema S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $45.21, about −23% upside versus a price of $58.84 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $35.79, optimistic scenario $45.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arkema S.A (ARKAF)?
Arkema S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €8.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Arkema S.A pay a dividend?
Arkema S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.12% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arkema S.A (ARKAF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arkema S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +7.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARKAF use?
Our models discount Arkema S.A at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.95, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arkema S.A that is +7.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arkema S.A (ARKAF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arkema S.A grew +2.8 % a year. The price currently implies +7.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arkema S.A (ARKAF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arkema S.A (+7.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arkema S.A (ARKAF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.48 %: that much free cash flow Arkema S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arkema S.A (ARKAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arkema S.A it is $45.21 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $58.84. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arkema S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ARKAF trades above its calculated fair value: price $58.84, fair value $45.21, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARKAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($58.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($45.21). For Arkema S.A the two are $13.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arkema S.A worth?
The market values Arkema S.A at about $5.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $58.84; our models calculate a fair value of $45.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARKAF?
Our models span a range for Arkema S.A: cautious scenario $35.79, base $45.21, optimistic $45.21 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $58.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is ARKAF from its 52-week high?
Arkema S.A trades at $58.84, about 19% below its 52-week high of $73.02 and 6% above the low of $55.30 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $45.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arkema S.A?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arkema S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $58.84, calculated fair value $45.21 (−23%), Quality Score 53/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARKAF calculated?
We run Arkema S.A through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $45.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Arkema S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arkema S.A (ARKAF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $58.84. Our model-based fair value is $45.21, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arkema S.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($45.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Arkema S.A (ARKAF) come from?
Earnings per share at Arkema S.A grew −1.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.3 %, EBIT margin −2.8 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Arkema S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Arkema S.A (ARKAF)?
The market capitalisation of Arkema S.A is $5.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Arkema S.A (ARKAF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Arkema S.A is 217.9. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Arkema S.A (ARKAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arkema S.A is 1.51 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arkema S.A (ARKAF)?
Earnings per share at Arkema S.A are $0.2700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 217.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arkema S.A (ARKAF)?
The dividend yield of Arkema S.A is 6.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arkema S.A (ARKAF)?
The net margin of Arkema S.A is 0.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arkema S.A (ARKAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arkema S.A is 0.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arkema S.A (ARKAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arkema S.A is 7.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arkema S.A (ARKAF)?
The operating margin of Arkema S.A is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arkema S.A (ARKAF)?
Revenue at Arkema S.A is growing −8.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arkema S.A (ARKAF)?
Earnings per share at Arkema S.A are growing −84.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Arkema S.A (ARKAF) carry?
The net debt of Arkema S.A is €3.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026