Arko Corp (ARKO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Arko Corp $4.46, price $4.23, upside +5.4%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.55 – $9.92 · fair‑value band $3.35 – $5.58 · the $4.23 price screens below the $4.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Arko Corp., through its subsidiary, operates a chain of convenience stores in the United States. It operates through four segments Retail, Wholesale, Fleet Fueling, and GPMP segments.
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Arko Corp., through its subsidiary, operates a chain of convenience stores in the United States. It operates through four segments Retail, Wholesale, Fleet Fueling, and GPMP segments. The Retail segment engages in the operation of retail stores that sells fuel and merchandise, as well as cold and hot prepared foods, beverages, cigarettes and other tobacco products, candy, salty snacks, grocery, beer and general merchandise to retail consumers. The Wholesale segment supplies fuel to dealers, sub-wholesalers, and bulk and spot purchasers. The Fleet Fueling segment operates proprietary and third-party cardlock, and sells fuel using proprietary fuel cards. The GPMP segment is involved in the wholesale distribution of fuel to the retail and wholesale segments. The company is based in Richmond, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Arko Corp (ARKO) currently trades at $4.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.46, implying the stock looks roughly 5.2% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $15.37 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the $4.23 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.03, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $3.35 (bear) to $5.58 (bull), the price of $4.23 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Arko Corp reported revenue of $7.6B in FY2025 versus $7.4B in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was $22.7M in FY2025, compounding −21.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $866M · P/E ratio 21.2 · P/S ratio 0.06 · EPS (TTM) $0.2000 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 0.3% · Return on equity 6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 5%, ARKO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.35Fair Value $4.46Bull $5.58
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0585 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−2.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5% vs 51%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 230 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside+5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.38× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)21.2× · Pricier than median
P/B2.36× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arko Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARKO
Frequently asked questions
Is Arko Corp (ARKO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.46 versus a price of $4.23, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ARKO?
Our model-based fair value for Arko Corp is $4.46 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.23.
What is the quality score of ARKO?
Arko Corp has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arko Corp (ARKO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.46 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.35, optimistic scenario $5.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arko Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.46, about +5% upside versus a price of $4.23 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $3.35, optimistic scenario $5.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arko Corp (ARKO)?
Arko Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Arko Corp pay a dividend?
Arko Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.84% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arko Corp (ARKO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arko Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +9.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARKO use?
Our models discount Arko Corp at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.99, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arko Corp that is +9.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arko Corp (ARKO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arko Corp grew +13.8 % a year. The price currently implies +9.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arko Corp (ARKO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arko Corp (+9.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arko Corp (ARKO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.41 %: that much free cash flow Arko Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arko Corp (ARKO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arko Corp it is $4.46 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $4.23. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arko Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ARKO trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.23, fair value $4.46, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARKO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.46). For Arko Corp the two are $0.2300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arko Corp worth?
The market values Arko Corp at about $866M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $4.23; our models calculate a fair value of $4.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARKO?
Our models span a range for Arko Corp: cautious scenario $3.35, base $4.46, optimistic $5.58 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $4.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARKO?
Arko Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.4, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 5.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arko Corp (ARKO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arko Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 6.5%, debt of 2.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARKO from its 52-week high?
Arko Corp trades at $4.23, about 51% below its 52-week high of $8.64 and 13% above the low of $3.76 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arko Corp?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arko Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $4.23, calculated fair value $4.46 (+5%), Quality Score 53/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARKO calculated?
We run Arko Corp through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Arko Corp currently trades 5 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arko Corp (ARKO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $4.23. Our model-based fair value is $4.46, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arko Corp right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Arko Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Arko Corp (ARKO)?
The market capitalisation of Arko Corp is $866M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arko Corp (ARKO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arko Corp is 0.06 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arko Corp (ARKO)?
Earnings per share at Arko Corp are $0.2000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arko Corp (ARKO)?
The dividend yield of Arko Corp is 2.8% (payout 60.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arko Corp (ARKO)?
The net margin of Arko Corp is 0.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arko Corp (ARKO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arko Corp is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arko Corp (ARKO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arko Corp is 3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arko Corp (ARKO)?
The operating margin of Arko Corp is 0.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arko Corp (ARKO)?
Revenue at Arko Corp is growing −3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arko Corp (ARKO)?
Earnings per share at Arko Corp are growing +42.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Arko Corp (ARKO) carry?
The net debt of Arko Corp is $3.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 55.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026