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Arlo Technologies (ARLO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Arlo Technologies $2.75, price $13.66, upside -79.9%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US · ISIN US04206A1016

AT Arlo Technologies logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Arlo Technologies

ARLO · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $2.75 · Strongly overvalued (−80%)
!Quality 58/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +8.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.5% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (5/13)
!Moderate moat 47/100
!Insider activity 42/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$19.44 $3.15 Fair Value $2.75 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.15 – $19.44 · fair‑value band $1.95 – $3.57 · the $13.66 price screens above the $2.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Arlo Technologies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides cloud-based platform services in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific regions.

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Arlo Technologies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides cloud-based platform services in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific regions. The company offers Arlo Essential Cameras and Doorbells delivers smart home protection, including automated privacy shield, 360-degree coverage, and 2K video resolution; Arlo Home Security System, an all-in-one multi-sensor that provides access to security experts for monitoring and responding to emergency situations; ARLO PRO 6, a pro series wireless security cameras; ARLO ULTRA 3, a 4K HDR video resolution, auto-zoom and tracking and an expansive 180-degree field of view camera; Arlo Go 2, a camera for monitoring remote areas, large properties, construction sites, vacation homes, boat or RV slips, and hard-to-access areas; and Arlo Floodlight Camera, a wire-free floodlight camera. It also provides security system accessories, charging accessories, and mounts. In addition, the company offers Arlo Secure subscriptions, including AI-powered recognition and detection; 2K secure plan and 4K secure plus plan cloud-based video recording; unlimited cameras; advanced object detection; smart interactive notifications; smoke and CO alarm detection; cloud-based activity zone; call a friend; and 24/7 priority support and professional monitoring services; Arlo Total Security, a subscription which provides 24/7 professional monitoring and security hardware; Arlo Safe, a personal safety app that offers one-touch emergency response, family safety, and crash detection and response services; and Arlo SmartCloud, a SaaS solution that delivers security cloud services for business. It sells its products through retailers, wholesale distributors, broadcast channels, wireless carriers, and security solution providers, as well as through its website. Arlo Technologies, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Carlsbad, California.

Stock analysis

Arlo Technologies (ARLO) currently trades at $13.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.75, implying the stock looks roughly 397.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $5.90 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $13.66 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.7800, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $1.95 (bear) to $3.57 (bull), the price of $13.66 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Arlo Technologies reported revenue of $529M in FY2025 versus $435M in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was $14.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.5B · P/E ratio 48.8 · P/S ratio 1.38 · EPS (TTM) $0.2800 · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 23.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −11.3% · Operating margin 5.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.

The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −80%, ARLO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.7800 to $9.44). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $1.95 Fair Value $2.75 Bull $3.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2048 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $7.08 $9.44 $12.51 80
Growth DCF $7.14 $9.22 $11.77 77
Owner Earnings $2.01 $2.29 $2.64 75
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $7.08 $9.44 $12.51 80
Owner Earnings $2.01 $2.29 $2.64 75
5Y Revenue Exit $3.96 $4.44 $4.95 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $4.32 $5.11 $5.95 74
5Y P/E Exit $5.18 $6.69 $8.21 69
10Y Revenue Exit $5.20 $5.90 $6.66 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $5.42 $6.32 $7.35 67
10Y P/E Exit $5.92 $7.32 $8.90 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.9300 $2.66 $3.51 65
Lynch FV $0.5400 $0.7800 $1.01 61
PEG = 1.0 $0.5400 $0.7800 $1.01 57
EPV $1.74 $1.79 $1.84 70
Multiples
P/E Multiple $2.89 $3.85 $4.81 63
P/S Multiple $1.75 $2.34 $2.92 58
P/B Multiple $1.75 $2.34 $2.92 55
EV/EBIT $2.35 $2.69 $3.03 63
EV/EBITDA $2.59 $3.01 $3.42 64
EV/Revenue $1.86 $2.07 $2.29 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.5900 $0.7900 $1.18 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $7.14 $9.22 $11.77 77
Rev-Margin DCF $3.96 $4.56 $5.29 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income $1.02 $1.14 $1.71 70
ROIC Compounder $1.74 $1.79 $1.84 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $2.26 $3.23 $4.20 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23

Profitability 62
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 75
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 73
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 70
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 19
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 17
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 81/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−29.4% (2020) → 1.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.0% a year for the price and +4.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+6.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+8.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+7.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+7.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+6.2%

ARLO screens 398% overvalued. Compare with Trane Technologies plc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 250 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside −80% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 23% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 26% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 48.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B 11.77× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 2.68× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 22.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 64.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.61× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 11
PAST (return on equity)93 · sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Trane Technologies plc TT $437.82 $214.52 −51%
Johnson Controls International plc JCI $146.44 $39.57 −73%
Carrier Global Corporation CARR $55.26 $19.18 −65%
Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO €71.22 €93.50 +31%
Geberit AG GEBN CHF 548.40 CHF 297.73 −46%
Lennox International Inc LII $371.68 $301.61 −19%
Madison Air Solutions Corporation MAIR $25.05 $27.56 +10%
Kingspan Group KRX €99.40 €68.89 −31%
Masco Corporation MAS $69.96 $55.79 −20%
Carlisle Companies Incorporated CSL $328.55 $340.70 +4%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arlo Technologies Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARLO

Frequently asked questions

Is Arlo Technologies (ARLO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.75 versus a price of $13.66, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARLO?
Our model-based fair value for Arlo Technologies is $2.75 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.66.
What is the quality score of ARLO?
Arlo Technologies has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arlo Technologies (ARLO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.75 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.95, optimistic scenario $3.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arlo Technologies stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.75, about −80% upside versus a price of $13.66 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.95, optimistic scenario $3.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arlo Technologies (ARLO)?
Arlo Technologies reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $561M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arlo Technologies (ARLO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arlo Technologies would have to grow free cash flow by +16.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARLO use?
Our models discount Arlo Technologies at 12.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.55, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arlo Technologies that is +16.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arlo Technologies (ARLO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arlo Technologies grew +8.2 % a year. The price currently implies +16.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arlo Technologies (ARLO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arlo Technologies (+16.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arlo Technologies (ARLO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.45 %: that much free cash flow Arlo Technologies produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arlo Technologies (ARLO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arlo Technologies it is $2.75 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $13.66. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arlo Technologies stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ARLO trades above its calculated fair value: price $13.66, fair value $2.75, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARLO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.75). For Arlo Technologies the two are $10.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arlo Technologies worth?
The market values Arlo Technologies at about $1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $13.66; our models calculate a fair value of $2.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARLO?
Our models span a range for Arlo Technologies: cautious scenario $1.95, base $2.75, optimistic $3.57 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $13.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARLO?
Arlo Technologies trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 48.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.75 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 11.8, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 64.1.
What is the PEG ratio of ARLO?
The PEG ratio of Arlo Technologies is 0.61 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arlo Technologies (ARLO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arlo Technologies (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 23.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARLO from its 52-week high?
Arlo Technologies trades at $13.66, about 30% below its 52-week high of $19.44 and 22% above the low of $11.23 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arlo Technologies?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Trane Technologies plc, Johnson Controls International plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arlo Technologies stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $13.66, calculated fair value $2.75 (−80%), Quality Score 58/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARLO calculated?
We run Arlo Technologies through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Arlo Technologies itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arlo Technologies (ARLO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $13.66. Our model-based fair value is $2.75, about −80% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arlo Technologies right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($1.95 to $3.57) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Arlo Technologies

How large is the market capitalisation of Arlo Technologies (ARLO)?
The market capitalisation of Arlo Technologies is $1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arlo Technologies (ARLO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arlo Technologies is 1.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arlo Technologies (ARLO)?
Earnings per share at Arlo Technologies are $0.2800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 48.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Arlo Technologies (ARLO)?
The net margin of Arlo Technologies is 2.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arlo Technologies (ARLO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arlo Technologies is 23.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arlo Technologies (ARLO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arlo Technologies is −11.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arlo Technologies (ARLO)?
The operating margin of Arlo Technologies is 5.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arlo Technologies (ARLO)?
Revenue at Arlo Technologies is growing +26.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Arlo Technologies (ARLO) hold?
Arlo Technologies holds more cash than debt, $140M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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