Arlo Technologies, Inc (ARLO) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $1.4B

A solid business, but screening 87% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.48). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.15 – $19.44 · fair‑value band $1.73 – $2.48 · the $15.23 price screens above the $1.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Arlo Technologies, Inc (ARLO) currently trades at $15.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.99, implying the stock looks roughly 86.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Arlo Technologies, Inc generated revenue of $561M at a net margin of 5.5%. Revenue grew 26.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 23.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $140M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $1.73 (bear case) to $2.48 (bull case); at $15.23, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at -87%, ARLO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($5.85) versus Earnings-Based ($0.7800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Arlo Technologies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides cloud-based platform services in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific regions.

Full company description

Arlo Technologies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides cloud-based platform services in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific regions. The company offers Arlo Essential Cameras and Doorbells delivers smart home protection, including automated privacy shield, 360-degree coverage, and 2K video resolution; Arlo Home Security System, an all-in-one multi-sensor that provides access to security experts for monitoring and responding to emergency situations; ARLO PRO 6, a pro series wireless security cameras; ARLO ULTRA 3, a 4K HDR video resolution, auto-zoom and tracking and an expansive 180-degree field of view camera; Arlo Go 2, a camera for monitoring remote areas, large properties, construction sites, vacation homes, boat or RV slips, and hard-to-access areas; and Arlo Floodlight Camera, a wire-free floodlight camera. It also provides security system accessories, charging accessories, and mounts. In addition, the company offers Arlo Secure subscriptions, including AI-powered recognition and detection; 2K secure plan and 4K secure plus plan cloud-based video recording; unlimited cameras; advanced object detection; smart interactive notifications; smoke and CO alarm detection; cloud-based activity zone; call a friend; and 24/7 priority support and professional monitoring services; Arlo Total Security, a subscription which provides 24/7 professional monitoring and security hardware; Arlo Safe, a personal safety app that offers one-touch emergency response, family safety, and crash detection and response services; and Arlo SmartCloud, a SaaS solution that delivers security cloud services for business. It sells its products through retailers, wholesale distributors, broadcast channels, wireless carriers, and security solution providers, as well as through its website. Arlo Technologies, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Carlsbad, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Arlo Technologies, Inc reported revenue of $529M in FY2025 versus $435M in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was $14.9M in FY2025.

ARLO screens 87% overvalued. Compare with Trane Technologies plc →

Peer Group

Building Products & Equipment · 247 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 42/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.