Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Qualcomm Incorporated stock $191, price $173, upside +10.0%, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.
Quality 72/100
Highly profitable · 21.0% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
2.1% dividend yield · Well covered
Ranks above peers(11/15)
Broad data
34% return on equity.
Fair value $190.51 · Fairly valued (+10.0%)
Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +5.1 %/yr in USD)
Wide moat82/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $7.8M (6M)
Downbeat coverage
⟳ CyclicalQuality growth
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Handset revenue fell sharply due to memory costs and Apple transition🚩Transition away from Apple handset supply amid revenue decline🚩Loss of Apple handset business🚩MediaTek and rivals eroding mobile margins
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $94.94 – $248.74 · fair‑value band $107.15 – $279.86 · the $173.19 price screens below the $190.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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QUALCOMM Incorporated engages in the development and commercialization of foundational technologies for the wireless industry worldwide.
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It operates through three segments: Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT); Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL); and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives (QSI). The QCT segment develops and supplies integrated circuits and system software with connectivity and computing technologies for use in mobile devices; automotive systems for connectivity, digital cockpit, and ADAS/AD; and IoT, including consumer electronic devices, industrial devices, and edge networking products.
The QTL segment grants licenses or provides rights to use portions of its intellectual property portfolio, which include various patent rights useful in the manufacture and sale of wireless products comprising products implementing LTE, and/or OFDMA-based 5G products and derivatives; to use cellular standard-essential patents, including 3G, 4G and 5G for cellular devices.
The QSI segment invests in early-stage companies in various industries, including 5G, artificial intelligence, automotive, consumer, enterprise, cloud, IoT, and extended reality, and investments, including non-marketable equity securities and, to a lesser extent, marketable equity securities, and convertible debt instruments.
It also provides development, and other services and sells related products to the United States government agencies and their contractors. In addition, the company is also involved in Qualcomm government technologies and data center businesses.
QUALCOMM Incorporated was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Stock analysis
Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) currently trades at $173.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $190.51, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $283.77 per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the $173.19 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $28.35, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $107.15 (bear) to $279.86 (bull), the price of $173.19 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Qualcomm Incorporated reported revenue of $43.1B in FY2026 versus $44.2B in FY2022, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was $13.6B in FY2026, compounding +1.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $185B Large · P/E ratio 20.0 · P/S ratio 4.20 · EPS (TTM) $8.64 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 21.0% · Return on equity 33.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 82 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 10%, QCOM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$107.15Fair Value $190.51Bull$279.86
Price $173.19 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 1 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5119 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $7.8M and none bought.
SaleAkash J. PalkhiwalaEVP, CFO & COO12× since Nov 7, 2025: 42,537 shares, avg. $170.12$7.2MOct 20, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAnn C ChaplinEVP, GenCounsel&CorpSecretary2× since Dec 16, 2025: 9,007 shares, avg. $177.36$1.6MOct 16, 202610b5-1 plan
SalePatricia Y GrechSVP, Chief Accounting Officer10× since Nov 7, 2025: 3,537 shares, avg. $168.54$596,115Oct 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleCristiano R AmonPresident & CEO, Director4× since May 4, 2026: 40,000 shares, avg. $190.00$7.6MSep 25, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleHeather S AceEVP, Chief HR Officer4× since Nov 7, 2025: 11,200 shares, avg. $156.66$1.8MAug 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAlexander H RogersEVP, Pres QTL & Global Affairs15,917 shares at $178.01$2.8MDec 16, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus 18 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.2% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+17.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.1% vs 14.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 20%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.2% a year for the price and +1.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Moderate moat potential rests on margins and cash flow, while thin human capital data and heavy handset dependence form the main limitation.
Main risk: Apple shifting to in-house modems and chips could sharply reduce Qualcomm's handset revenue and margins as its largest customer exits.
Bull case: By leveraging efficient on-device and data-center AI inference chips plus partnerships such as with Meta, Qualcomm could offset handset erosion and expand into higher-growth segments.
Bear case: If Apple fully exits and MediaTek plus Samsung capture more share while data-center entry faces Nvidia, Broadcom and hyperscaler custom ASICs, core revenue could decline without adequate replacement streams.
Qualcomm's handset chip revenue fell sharply last quarter as memory costs squeezed smartphone demand and the company transitions away from supplying Apple. Meanwhile automotive revenue nearly doubled to a record level and data center sales are beginning to ramp with a five billion dollar target for next fiscal year. Will the newer segments offset handset pressure quickly enough to restore growth momentum, or will core smartphone challenges linger?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 372 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)33.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets22.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)21.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)18.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−4.0% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.49× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Qualcomm Incorporated Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/QCOM
Frequently asked questions
Is Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $190.51 versus a price of $173.19, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of QCOM?
Our model-based fair value for Qualcomm Incorporated is $190.51 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $173.19.
What is the quality score of QCOM?
Qualcomm Incorporated has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $190.51 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $107.15, optimistic scenario $279.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Qualcomm Incorporated stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $190.51, about +10% upside versus a price of $173.19 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $107.15, optimistic scenario $279.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)?
Qualcomm Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $44.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Qualcomm Incorporated pay a dividend?
Qualcomm Incorporated currently shows a dividend yield of 2.07% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Qualcomm Incorporated would have to grow free cash flow by +14.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.1 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of QCOM use?
Our models discount Qualcomm Incorporated at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.76, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Qualcomm Incorporated that is +14.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Qualcomm Incorporated grew +5.1 % a year. The price currently implies +14.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Qualcomm Incorporated (+14.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.67 %: that much free cash flow Qualcomm Incorporated produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Qualcomm Incorporated it is $190.51 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $173.19. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Qualcomm Incorporated stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, QCOM trades below its calculated fair value: price $173.19, fair value $190.51, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of QCOM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($173.19); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($190.51). For Qualcomm Incorporated the two are $17.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Qualcomm Incorporated worth?
The market values Qualcomm Incorporated at about $185B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $173.19; our models calculate a fair value of $190.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about QCOM?
Our models span a range for Qualcomm Incorporated: cautious scenario $107.15, base $190.51, optimistic $279.86 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $173.19). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of QCOM?
Qualcomm Incorporated trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $190.51 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 10.6 (reported 20.0). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 18.0. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 6.1, P/S 4.2, EV/EBITDA 16.3.
What is the PEG ratio of QCOM?
The PEG ratio of Qualcomm Incorporated is 0.74 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Qualcomm Incorporated (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 33.8%, debt of 0.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is QCOM from its 52-week high?
Qualcomm Incorporated trades at $173.19, about 30% below its 52-week high of $248.74 and 41% above the low of $122.94 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $190.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Qualcomm Incorporated?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Qualcomm Incorporated stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $173.19, calculated fair value $190.51 (+10%), Quality Score 72/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of QCOM calculated?
We run Qualcomm Incorporated through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $190.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Qualcomm Incorporated currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $173.19. Our model-based fair value is $190.51, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Qualcomm Incorporated right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($107.15 to $279.86). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) come from?
Earnings per share at Qualcomm Incorporated grew +13.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.7 %, EBIT margin +1.8 %, tax rate −1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Qualcomm Incorporated
How large is the market capitalisation of Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)?
The market capitalisation of Qualcomm Incorporated is $185B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Qualcomm Incorporated is 4.20 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)?
Earnings per share at Qualcomm Incorporated are $8.64 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)?
The dividend yield of Qualcomm Incorporated is 2.1% (payout 32.4%, on adjusted earnings, reported 41.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)?
The net margin of Qualcomm Incorporated is 21.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Qualcomm Incorporated is 33.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Qualcomm Incorporated is 20.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)?
The operating margin of Qualcomm Incorporated is 18.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)?
Revenue at Qualcomm Incorporated is growing −4.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)?
Earnings per share at Qualcomm Incorporated are growing −23.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) carry?
The net debt of Qualcomm Incorporated is $10.5B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026