QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $194B
QUALCOMM Incorporated
QCOM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price −12.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 34% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($131.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $95.46 – $250.10 · fair‑value band $78.86 – $131.43 · the $160.39 price screens above the $105.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) currently trades at $160.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $105.14, implying the stock looks roughly 34.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, QUALCOMM Incorporated generated revenue of $44.5B at a net margin of 22.3%. Revenue declined 3.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 36.1%. Net debt stands at $8.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $78.86 (bear case) to $131.43 (bull case); at $160.39, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -62% fair-value upside, at -34%, QCOM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($176.23) versus Asset-Based ($13.48). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 81 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
QUALCOMM Incorporated engages in the development and commercialization of foundational technologies for the wireless industry worldwide. It operates through three segments: Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT); Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL); and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives (QSI).
Full company description
QUALCOMM Incorporated engages in the development and commercialization of foundational technologies for the wireless industry worldwide. It operates through three segments: Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT); Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL); and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives (QSI). The QCT segment develops and supplies integrated circuits and system software with connectivity and computing technologies for use in mobile devices; automotive systems for connectivity, digital cockpit, and ADAS/AD; and IoT, including consumer electronic devices, industrial devices, and edge networking products. The QTL segment grants licenses or provides rights to use portions of its intellectual property portfolio, which include various patent rights useful in the manufacture and sale of wireless products comprising products implementing LTE, and/or OFDMA-based 5G products and derivatives; to use cellular standard-essential patents, including 3G, 4G and 5G for cellular devices. The QSI segment invests in early-stage companies in various industries, including 5G, artificial intelligence, automotive, consumer, enterprise, cloud, IoT, and extended reality, and investments, including non-marketable equity securities and, to a lesser extent, marketable equity securities, and convertible debt instruments. It also provides development, and other services and sells related products to the United States government agencies and their contractors. In addition, the company is also involved in Qualcomm government technologies and data center businesses. QUALCOMM Incorporated was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
QUALCOMM Incorporated reported revenue of $44.3B in FY2025 versus $33.6B in FY2021, a compound +7.2%/yr. Reported net income was $5.5B in FY2025, compounding −11.5%/yr from FY2021.
QCOM screens 34% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- This Week In AI Chips - AI Efficiency Boost Through Multiverse And Qualcomm Collaboration
- Multiverse Computing and Qualcomm Collaborate to Bring Efficient AI Models to Data Centers
Peer Group
Semiconductors · 319 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | $211.80 | $96.91 | -54% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM | $398.37 | $207.49 | -48% |
| Broadcom Inc 1AVGO | €323.25 | €121.25 | -62% |
| Micron Technology, Inc ZMIC | C$52.57 | C$7.50 | -86% |
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 2,082,000 KRW | 1,109,311 KRW | -47% |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc 1AMD | €464.70 | €56.33 | -88% |
| Intel Corporation INTC | C$68.40 | C$9.82 | -86% |
| Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN | $311.46 | $59.75 | -81% |
| MediaTek Inc 2454 | 3,740 TWD | 1,163 TWD | -69% |
| SK Square Co 402340 | 1,212,000 KRW | 868,000 KRW | -28% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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