Ast Spacemobile Inc (ASTS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ast Spacemobile Inc stock $19.25, price $33.69, that is 42.9% below the price, quality 25 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.01 – $133.09 · fair‑value band $14.44 – $24.07 · the $33.69 price screens above the $19.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 10, 2026.
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AST SpaceMobile, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs and develops the constellation of BlueBird satellites in the United States.
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The company provides a cellular broadband network in space to be accessible directly by smartphones for commercial use and other applications, as well as for government use. Its SpaceMobile service provides cellular broadband services to end-users who are out of terrestrial cellular coverage.
The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Midland, Texas.
Stock analysis
Ast Spacemobile Inc (ASTS) currently trades at $33.69, while our estimate is $19.25, 43% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.
Scenario range: $14.44 (bear) to $24.07 (bull), the price of $33.69 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ast Spacemobile Inc reported revenue of $70.9M in FY2025 versus $12.4M in FY2021, a compound +54.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$342M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $14.4B Large · EPS (TTM) $−2.13 · Return on equity −45.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −29.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin −545% · Revenue (TTM) $115M · Revenue growth (YoY) +26.3% · Free cash flow −$1.1B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 6 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 75% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −43%, ASTS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value
Bear$14.44Fair Value $19.25Bull$24.07
Price $33.69 · Downside -42.9%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality25/100
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Profitability0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth71
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength72
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum5
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $619,200, on Aug 31, 2026. Over the same period, 4 people sold shares worth $12.8M.
SaleShanti B. GuptaChief Operating Officer2× since Dec 10, 2025: 22,000 shares, avg. $67.28$1.5MSep 16, 2026
SaleHuiwen YaoChief Technology Officer4× since Dec 5, 2025: 160,000 shares, avg. $79.43$12.7MSep 16, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyAdriana CisnerosDirector2× since Nov 20, 2025: 11,572 shares, avg. $56.80$657,293Aug 31, 2026
SaleAndrew Martin JohnsonCFO and CLO, Director3× since Nov 26, 2025: 60,809 shares, avg. $87.30$5.3MJun 11, 2026
SaleJulio A. TorresDirector15,000 shares at $76.34$1.1MMay 13, 2026
SaleRakuten Group, Inc.10% owner3,040,000 shares at $89.11$270.9MApr 15, 2026
BuyKeith R LarsonDirector3× since Dec 10, 2025: 2,015 shares, avg. $74.02$149,144Dec 24, 202510b5-1 plan
SaleAMERICAN TOWER CORP /MA/Member of 10% owner group2,288,621 shares at $69.75$159.6MDec 9, 2025
SaleMaya BernalChief Accounting Officer6,000 shares at $73.76$442,560Dec 5, 2025
Plus 27 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+72.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+64.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+113.0%
’18
’19
’20
’21
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’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−393.3% (2020) → −405.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: AST SpaceMobile holds a narrow moat as an early-stage venture whose reusable rocket effort seeks greater deployment control while heavy cash burn and negative returns signal absent durable advantage.
Main risk: Competition from SpaceX Starlink Direct-to-Cell could take customers from carrier partners or force lower subscription prices and margins for AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-device connectivity.
Bull case: Strong carrier partnerships and larger phased-array antennas could enable higher-capacity broadband that differentiates AST SpaceMobile from Starlink and secures wholesale deals.
Bear case: If Starlink scales faster with lower costs and captures key carrier relationships, AST SpaceMobile could struggle to achieve commercial scale or sustainable margins in direct-to-device service.
AST SpaceMobile is developing its own reusable rocket to gain more control over satellite deployments starting in late 2028. This comes as the company works toward intermittent U.S. service by the end of this year despite Q3 results showing higher costs. Will the rocket program deliver meaningful cost reductions and reliability gains or simply extend the capital-intensive phase of the business?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 328 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score25 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−42.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−6.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)26.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.20× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/B7.80× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 6
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 57
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)40· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 23
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Ast Spacemobile Inc (ASTS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $19.25 versus a price of $33.69, about 43% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ASTS?
Our estimate for Ast Spacemobile Inc is $19.25 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $33.69.
What is the quality score of ASTS?
Ast Spacemobile Inc has a Quality Score of 25/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ast Spacemobile Inc (ASTS)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $19.25 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $14.44, optimistic scenario $24.07. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Ast Spacemobile Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $19.25, about 43% lower versus a price of $33.69 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $14.44, optimistic scenario $24.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ast Spacemobile Inc (ASTS)?
Ast Spacemobile Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $115M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ast Spacemobile Inc (ASTS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ast Spacemobile Inc it is $19.25 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $33.69.
Is Ast Spacemobile Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, ASTS trades above its calculated fair value: price $33.69, fair value $19.25, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASTS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($33.69); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.25). For Ast Spacemobile Inc the two are $14.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ast Spacemobile Inc worth?
The market values Ast Spacemobile Inc at about $14.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $33.69; our models calculate a fair value of $19.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASTS?
Our models span a range for Ast Spacemobile Inc: cautious scenario $14.44, base $19.25, optimistic $24.07 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $33.69). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ast Spacemobile Inc (ASTS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ast Spacemobile Inc (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −45.6%, debt of 1.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 25/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ASTS from its 52-week high?
Ast Spacemobile Inc trades at $33.69, about 75% below its 52-week high of $133.09 and 12% above the low of $30.20 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ast Spacemobile Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Zhongji Innolight Co, Motorola Solutions, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ast Spacemobile Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $33.69, calculated fair value $19.25 (−43%), Quality Score 25/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Ast Spacemobile Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ast Spacemobile Inc (ASTS)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $33.69. Our estimate is $19.25, about 43% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ast Spacemobile Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($24.07). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Ast Spacemobile Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Ast Spacemobile Inc (ASTS)?
The market capitalisation of Ast Spacemobile Inc is $14.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Ast Spacemobile Inc (ASTS)?
Earnings per share at Ast Spacemobile Inc are $−2.13. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Ast Spacemobile Inc (ASTS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ast Spacemobile Inc is −45.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ast Spacemobile Inc (ASTS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ast Spacemobile Inc is −29.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ast Spacemobile Inc (ASTS)?
The operating margin of Ast Spacemobile Inc is −545% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ast Spacemobile Inc (ASTS)?
Revenue at Ast Spacemobile Inc is growing +26.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +72.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Ast Spacemobile Inc (ASTS) generate?
The free cash flow of Ast Spacemobile Inc is −$1.1B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Ast Spacemobile Inc (ASTS) hold?
Ast Spacemobile Inc holds more cash than debt, $97.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 10, 2026
