ASX Limited (ASXFY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of ASX Limited $23.75, price $40.77, upside -41.8%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.51 – $59.15 · fair‑value band $17.40 – $36.12 · the $40.77 price screens above the $23.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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ASX Limited operates as a multi-asset class and integrated exchange company in Australia and internationally.
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ASX Limited operates as a multi-asset class and integrated exchange company in Australia and internationally. The company provides regulated framework for entities to raise capital and source liquidity; education programs, research and insights, investor access and peer group networking; distribution facility for quoted exchange traded funds (ETFs) and debt securities. It is also involved in the trading of futures and options on interest rate, equity index, agricultural and energy products, and options over individual securities; cash market trading of equities, warrants, ETFs, and debt securities; and clearing of exchange-traded derivatives, and over-the-counter interest rate and equity derivatives. In addition, it offers information services, including pricing and trading data; technical services, such as market access, connectivity, hosting and co-location services; central counterparty clearing and settlement services for equities; settlement, depository, and registry services for debt securities; and payment platform for high value payments, electricity providers, and property transactions. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
ASX Limited ADR (ASXFY) currently trades at $40.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.75, 41.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $28.45 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the $40.77 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.24, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $17.40 (bear) to $36.12 (bull), the price of $40.77 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
ASX Limited ADR reported revenue of A$584M in FY2025 versus A$1.0B in FY2021, a compound −13.1%/yr. Reported net income was A$503M in FY2025, compounding +1.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $7.9B · P/E ratio 21.3 · P/S ratio 18.4 · EPS (TTM) $1.91 · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 86.0% · Return on equity 13.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 61 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −42%, ASXFY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $17.40Fair Value $23.75Bull $36.12
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−63.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.6% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.4% vs 2.3%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.74% → 123%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+42.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +38.1% a year for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−32.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13.6% · Below median
Return on assets2.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)44.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)55.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)21.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.91× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)9.56× · Pricier than median
P/FCF37.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA15.9× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)56· sector 66
PAST (return on equity)55· sector 79
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 36
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $23.75 versus a price of $40.77, about −42% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ASXFY?
Our model-based fair value for ASX Limited ADR is $23.75 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $40.77.
What is the quality score of ASXFY?
ASX Limited ADR has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ASX Limited (ASXFY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $23.75 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.40, optimistic scenario $36.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ASX Limited ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $23.75, about −42% upside versus a price of $40.77 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $17.40, optimistic scenario $36.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ASX Limited (ASXFY)?
ASX Limited ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$1.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does ASX Limited ADR pay a dividend?
ASX Limited ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.25% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into ASX Limited (ASXFY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ASX Limited ADR would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -11.9 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ASXFY use?
Our models discount ASX Limited ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ASX Limited ADR that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ASX Limited (ASXFY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ASX Limited ADR grew -11.9 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ASX Limited (ASXFY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ASX Limited ADR (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ASX Limited (ASXFY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.67 %: that much free cash flow ASX Limited ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ASX Limited (ASXFY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ASX Limited ADR it is $23.75 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $40.77. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ASX Limited ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, ASXFY trades above its calculated fair value: price $40.77, fair value $23.75, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASXFY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($40.77); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($23.75). For ASX Limited ADR the two are $17.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ASX Limited ADR worth?
The market values ASX Limited ADR at about $7.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $40.77; our models calculate a fair value of $23.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASXFY?
Our models span a range for ASX Limited ADR: cautious scenario $17.40, base $23.75, optimistic $36.12 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $40.77). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ASXFY?
ASX Limited ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.3 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $23.75 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.9, P/S 9.6, EV/EBITDA 15.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of ASX Limited (ASXFY)?
Balance-sheet figures for ASX Limited ADR (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 13.6%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ASXFY from its 52-week high?
ASX Limited ADR trades at $40.77, about 11% below its 52-week high of $45.74 and 24% above the low of $32.95 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $23.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ASX Limited ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value S&P Global Inc, CME Group, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc, Moody's Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ASX Limited ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $40.77, calculated fair value $23.75 (−42%), Quality Score 55/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ASXFY calculated?
We run ASX Limited ADR through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $23.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ASX Limited ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ASX Limited (ASXFY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $40.77. Our model-based fair value is $23.75, about −42% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ASX Limited ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($36.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($17.40 to $36.12) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of ASX Limited (ASXFY) come from?
Earnings per share at ASX Limited ADR grew +0.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.8 %, EBIT margin −2.3 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ASX Limited ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of ASX Limited (ASXFY)?
The market capitalisation of ASX Limited ADR is $7.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ASX Limited (ASXFY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ASX Limited ADR is 18.4 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ASX Limited (ASXFY)?
Earnings per share at ASX Limited ADR are $1.91 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ASX Limited (ASXFY)?
The dividend yield of ASX Limited ADR is 5.2% (payout 112%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ASX Limited (ASXFY)?
The net margin of ASX Limited ADR is 86.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ASX Limited (ASXFY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ASX Limited ADR is 13.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ASX Limited (ASXFY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ASX Limited ADR is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ASX Limited (ASXFY)?
The operating margin of ASX Limited ADR is 55.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ASX Limited (ASXFY)?
Revenue at ASX Limited ADR is growing +11.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −18.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ASX Limited (ASXFY)?
Earnings per share at ASX Limited ADR are growing +8.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does ASX Limited (ASXFY) hold?
ASX Limited ADR holds more cash than debt, A$697M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026