Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Athabasca Oil Corp C$17.98, price C$10.08, upside +78.4%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.6700 – C$12.68 · fair‑value band C$9.54 – C$26.33 · the C$10.08 price screens below the C$17.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Athabasca Oil Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and production of thermal and light oil resource plays in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in Alberta, Canada. The company operates through the Athabasca (Thermal Oil) and Duvernay Energy segments.
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Athabasca Oil Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and production of thermal and light oil resource plays in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in Alberta, Canada. The company operates through the Athabasca (Thermal Oil) and Duvernay Energy segments. The Athabasca segment focuses on the exploration, development, and production of bitumen from sand and carbonate rock formations located in the Athabasca region of Northern Alberta. Its Duvernay Energy segment engages in the exploration, development, and production of light crude oil and medium crude oil, tight oil, conventional natural gas, shale gas, and NGLs located primarily in the Greater Kaybob area near the town of Fox Creek, Alberta. The company was formerly known as Athabasca Oil Sands Corp. and changed its name to Athabasca Oil Corporation in May 2012. Athabasca Oil Corporation was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH) currently trades at C$10.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$17.98, implying the stock looks roughly 43.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$20.26 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$10.08 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$2.47, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$9.54 (bear) to C$26.33 (bull), the price of C$10.08 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Athabasca Oil Corp reported revenue of C$1.3B in FY2025 versus C$1.0B in FY2021, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was C$245M in FY2025, compounding −14.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$4.9B (≈ $3.5B) · P/E ratio 21.4 · P/S ratio 4.01 · EPS (TTM) C$0.4700 · Net margin 18.7% · Return on equity 12.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.7% · Operating margin 29.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 78%, ATH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$9.54Fair Value C$17.98Bull C$26.33
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.3438 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +31.3% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−3.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−40% → 28%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.3% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (80 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+78% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)18% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)29% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−13% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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Is Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$17.98 versus a price of C$10.08, about +78% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ATH?
Our model-based fair value for Athabasca Oil Corp is C$17.98 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$10.08.
What is the quality score of ATH?
Athabasca Oil Corp has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$17.98 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$9.54, optimistic scenario C$26.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Athabasca Oil Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$17.98, about +78% upside versus a price of C$10.08 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$9.54, optimistic scenario C$26.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH)?
Athabasca Oil Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Athabasca Oil Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -7.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ATH use?
Our models discount Athabasca Oil Corp at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.35, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Athabasca Oil Corp that is -7.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Athabasca Oil Corp grew +23.0 % a year. The price currently implies -7.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Athabasca Oil Corp (-7.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.54 %: that much free cash flow Athabasca Oil Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Athabasca Oil Corp it is C$17.98 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of C$10.08. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Athabasca Oil Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ATH trades below its calculated fair value: price C$10.08, fair value C$17.98, a gap of about +78% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ATH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$10.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$17.98). For Athabasca Oil Corp the two are C$7.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Athabasca Oil Corp worth?
The market values Athabasca Oil Corp at about C$4.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is C$10.08; our models calculate a fair value of C$17.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ATH?
Our models span a range for Athabasca Oil Corp: cautious scenario C$9.54, base C$17.98, optimistic C$26.33 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price C$10.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ATH?
Athabasca Oil Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$17.98 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 2.0, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
What is the PEG ratio of ATH?
The PEG ratio of Athabasca Oil Corp is 0.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Athabasca Oil Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.0%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ATH from its 52-week high?
Athabasca Oil Corp trades at C$10.08, about 21% below its 52-week high of C$12.68 and 64% above the low of C$6.13 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$17.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Athabasca Oil Corp?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Athabasca Oil Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price C$10.08, calculated fair value C$17.98 (+78%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ATH calculated?
We run Athabasca Oil Corp through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$17.98, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Athabasca Oil Corp currently trades 78 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was C$10.08. Our model-based fair value is C$17.98, about +78% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Athabasca Oil Corp right now?
The model range is unusually wide (C$9.54 to C$26.33). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Athabasca Oil Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH)?
The market capitalisation of Athabasca Oil Corp is C$4.9B (≈ $3.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Athabasca Oil Corp is 4.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH)?
Earnings per share at Athabasca Oil Corp are C$0.4700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH)?
The net margin of Athabasca Oil Corp is 18.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Athabasca Oil Corp is 12.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Athabasca Oil Corp is 14.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH)?
The operating margin of Athabasca Oil Corp is 29.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH)?
Revenue at Athabasca Oil Corp is growing −12.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH)?
Earnings per share at Athabasca Oil Corp are growing +19.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Athabasca Oil Corp (ATH) hold?
Athabasca Oil Corp holds more cash than debt, C$115M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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