Athabasca Oil Corporation (ATH) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CA · Market cap C$5.1B
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Share price −7.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 33% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$9.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (C$4.95 to C$9.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.6700 – C$12.68 · fair‑value band C$4.95 – C$9.28 · the C$9.91 price screens above the C$6.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Athabasca Oil Corporation (ATH) currently trades at C$9.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$6.60, implying the stock looks roughly 33.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Athabasca Oil Corporation generated revenue of C$1.3B at a net margin of 16.4%. Revenue grew 8.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of C$115M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$4.95 (bear case) to C$9.28 (bull case); at C$9.91, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 88% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -33%, ATH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (C$41.63) versus Asset-Based (C$2.46). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Athabasca Oil Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and production of thermal and light oil resource plays in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in Alberta, Canada. The company operates through the Athabasca (Thermal Oil) and Duvernay Energy segments.
Full company description
Athabasca Oil Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and production of thermal and light oil resource plays in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in Alberta, Canada. The company operates through the Athabasca (Thermal Oil) and Duvernay Energy segments. The Athabasca segment focuses on the exploration, development, and production of bitumen from sand and carbonate rock formations located in the Athabasca region of Northern Alberta. Its Duvernay Energy segment engages in the exploration, development, and production of light crude oil and medium crude oil, tight oil, conventional natural gas, shale gas, and NGLs located primarily in the Greater Kaybob area near the town of Fox Creek, Alberta. The company was formerly known as Athabasca Oil Sands Corp. and changed its name to Athabasca Oil Corporation in May 2012. Athabasca Oil Corporation was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Athabasca Oil Corporation reported revenue of C$1.3B in FY2025 versus C$1.0B in FY2021, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was C$245M in FY2025, compounding −14.5%/yr from FY2021.
ATH screens 33% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Athabasca Oil Reports 2026 Second Quarter Results Highlighted by Leismer Expansion Milestones and Advancement of Corner Phase 1
- TSX Value Stocks Including Athabasca Oil That May Be Priced Below Intrinsic Estimates
- Athabasca Oil Announces New $500M Four-Year Credit Facility and Expanded Duvernay Energy Credit Facility
- Athabasca Oil Corporation Announces New $500 Million Four-Year Credit Facility and Expanded Duvernay Energy Credit Facility
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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