AUB Group Limited (AUBBF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of AUB Group Limited $10.62, price $16.30, upside -34.9%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.13 – $25.70 · fair‑value band $9.72 – $15.08 · the $16.30 price screens above the $10.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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AUB Group Limited engages in the insurance broking and underwriting agency businesses in Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, Rest of Europe, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through five segments: Australian Broking, New Zealand Broking, Agencies, International, and Support Services.
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AUB Group Limited engages in the insurance broking and underwriting agency businesses in Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, Rest of Europe, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through five segments: Australian Broking, New Zealand Broking, Agencies, International, and Support Services. The company offers insurance broking and advisory services primarily to SME clients; and broking businesses complemented by established capabilities in member services, life insurance broking, premium funding, and claims management. It also designs, distributes, and manages insurance products and portfolios on behalf of licensed insurance companies. In addition, the company is involved in wholesale and retail broking and managing general agents. Further, it provides automated quoting and binding, white-labelling, and technological support services, as well as ExpressCover, an SME insurance platform utilising BizCover, a digital SME insurance platform with multichannel presence and insurance offerings; and distributes ancillary products. The company was formerly known as Austbrokers Holdings Limited and changed its name to AUB Group Limited in November 2015. AUB Group Limited was incorporated in 1885 and is headquartered in North Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
AUB Group Limited (AUBBF) currently trades at $16.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.62, 34.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $12.47 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $16.30 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.40, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.72 (bear) to $15.08 (bull), the price of $16.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
AUB Group Limited reported revenue of A$1.0B in FY2025 versus A$308M in FY2021, a compound +35.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$180M in FY2025, compounding +26.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.1B · P/E ratio 14.1 · P/S ratio 2.45 · EPS (TTM) $1.16 · Dividend yield 5.3% · Net margin 17.4% · Return on equity 12.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −54% fair-value upside, at −35%, AUBBF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.72Fair Value $10.62Bull $15.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2900 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+46.8%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+20.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.3%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 17%
2025 sits 77% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+26.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −17.3% a year for the price and +23.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance Brokers · 37 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside−55.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.4% · Below median
Return on assets4.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)15.7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)23.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.42× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.48× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)2.54× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF8.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA6.7× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)32· sector 54
PAST (return on equity)50· sector 51
HEALTH (low debt)79· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 94
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AUB Group Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AUBBF
Frequently asked questions
Is AUB Group Limited (AUBBF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.62 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $16.30, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AUBBF?
Our model-based fair value for AUB Group Limited is $10.62 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $16.30.
What is the quality score of AUBBF?
AUB Group Limited has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AUB Group Limited (AUBBF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.62 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.72, optimistic scenario $15.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AUB Group Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.62, about −35% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $16.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.72, optimistic scenario $15.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AUB Group Limited (AUBBF)?
AUB Group Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$1.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does AUB Group Limited pay a dividend?
AUB Group Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.34% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into AUB Group Limited (AUBBF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AUB Group Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -14.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +35.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AUBBF use?
Our models discount AUB Group Limited at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AUB Group Limited that is -14.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AUB Group Limited (AUBBF) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at AUB Group Limited grew +35.3 % a year. The price currently implies -14.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AUB Group Limited (AUBBF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AUB Group Limited (-14.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AUB Group Limited (AUBBF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.98 %: that much free cash flow AUB Group Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AUB Group Limited (AUBBF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AUB Group Limited it is $10.62 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $16.30. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AUB Group Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AUBBF trades above its calculated fair value: price $16.30, fair value $10.62, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AUBBF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.62). For AUB Group Limited the two are $5.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AUB Group Limited worth?
The market values AUB Group Limited at about $2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $16.30; our models calculate a fair value of $10.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AUBBF?
Our models span a range for AUB Group Limited: cautious scenario $9.72, base $10.62, optimistic $15.08 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $16.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AUBBF?
AUB Group Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.62 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 6.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of AUB Group Limited (AUBBF)?
Balance-sheet figures for AUB Group Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.4%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AUBBF from its 52-week high?
AUB Group Limited trades at $16.30, about 37% below its 52-week high of $25.70 and 1% above the low of $16.11 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AUB Group Limited?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co, Aon plc, Willis Towers Watson Public Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AUB Group Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $16.30, calculated fair value $10.62 (−35%), Quality Score 53/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AUBBF calculated?
We run AUB Group Limited through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. AUB Group Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AUB Group Limited (AUBBF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $16.30. Our model-based fair value is $10.62, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AUB Group Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of AUB Group Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of AUB Group Limited (AUBBF)?
The market capitalisation of AUB Group Limited is $2.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AUB Group Limited (AUBBF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AUB Group Limited is 2.45 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AUB Group Limited (AUBBF)?
Earnings per share at AUB Group Limited are $1.16 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AUB Group Limited (AUBBF)?
The dividend yield of AUB Group Limited is 5.3% (payout 75.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AUB Group Limited (AUBBF)?
The net margin of AUB Group Limited is 17.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AUB Group Limited (AUBBF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AUB Group Limited is 12.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AUB Group Limited (AUBBF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AUB Group Limited is 3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AUB Group Limited (AUBBF)?
The operating margin of AUB Group Limited is 23.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AUB Group Limited (AUBBF)?
Revenue at AUB Group Limited is growing +6.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +46.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AUB Group Limited (AUBBF)?
Earnings per share at AUB Group Limited are growing +33.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026