Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $11.7B · ISIN US0517741072
What is Aurora Innovation Inc really worth?
Aurora Innovation Inc
AUR · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 846% above our fair value of $0.6700.
As of Sep 3, 2026, the fair value of Aurora Innovation Inc is $0.6700 per share against a price of $6.34, so the fair value sits 89% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price −5.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.8400). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (26/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($0.4400 to $0.8400) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.14 – $17.11 · fair‑value band $0.4400 – $0.8400 · the $6.34 price screens above the $0.6700 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR) currently trades at $6.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6700, implying the stock looks roughly 846.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $4.0M. It earns a return on equity of −44.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $65.0M. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.4400 (bear case) to $0.8400 (bull case); at $6.34, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −89%, AUR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Aurora Innovation, Inc. engages in the self-driving technology business in the United States. It focuses on developing Aurora Driver, a platform that brings a suite of self-driving hardware, software, and data services together to adapt and interoperate various vehicle types and applications.
Full company description
Aurora Innovation, Inc. engages in the self-driving technology business in the United States. It focuses on developing Aurora Driver, a platform that brings a suite of self-driving hardware, software, and data services together to adapt and interoperate various vehicle types and applications. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Aurora Innovation Inc reported revenue of $3.0M in FY2025 versus $82.0M in FY2021, a compound −56.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$816M in FY2025.
AUR screens 846% overvalued. Compare with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- PlusAI Picked a SPAC to Fund Its 2027 Autonomous-Truck Launch. Is Aurora Already Too Far Ahead?
- Aurora Innovation (AUR) Partners with McLane Company to Launch Driverless Commercial Hauls
- Aurora to Host Analyst & Investor Day on September 23, 2026
- Uber Sells $472 Million of Aurora Stock
Peer Group
Auto Parts · 641 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| O'Reilly Automotive, Inc ORLY | $88.50 | $47.50 | −46% |
| AutoZone, Inc AZO | $2,983 | $2,287 | −23% |
| Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 | 450,500 KRW | 643,909 KRW | +43% |
| Fuyao Glass Industry Group 600660 | ¥57.67 | ¥84.47 | +46% |
| Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON | ₹165.30 | ₹80.63 | −51% |
| Magna International Inc MGA | $65.57 | $68.17 | +4% |
| Genuine Parts Company GPC | $137.51 | $58.07 | −58% |
| Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD | ₹48,700 | ₹11,534 | −76% |
| Ningbo Tuopu Group 601689 | ¥45.82 | ¥28.28 | −38% |
| Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG | ₹2,063 | ₹393.20 | −81% |
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