Avadh Sugar & Energy Limited (AVADHSUGAR) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · IN · Market cap ₹8.9B
Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 11 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 2, 2026, revised from ₹514.03 to ₹454.81 (−11.5%) since Jun 29, 2026. Share price +16.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 27% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹591.26). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹177.03 – ₹807.10 · fair‑value band ₹364.99 – ₹591.26 · the ₹626.95 price screens above the ₹454.81 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
Analysis
Avadh Sugar & Energy Limited (AVADHSUGAR) currently trades at ₹626.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹454.81, implying the stock looks roughly 27.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Avadh Sugar & Energy Limited generated revenue of ₹26.9B at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue declined 1.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.2%. Net debt stands at ₹14.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ₹364.99 (bear case) to ₹591.26 (bull case); at ₹626.95, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 105% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -27%, AVADHSUGAR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (₹601.15) versus Dividend Discount (₹113.06). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Avadh Sugar & Energy Limited manufactures and sells sugar and its by-products in India. The company operates through Sugar, Distillery, Co-generation, and Others segments. It offers molasses, bagasse, and press-mud products. In addition, the company provides industrial spirits, including ethanol and fusel oil.
Full company description
Avadh Sugar & Energy Limited manufactures and sells sugar and its by-products in India. The company operates through Sugar, Distillery, Co-generation, and Others segments. It offers molasses, bagasse, and press-mud products. In addition, the company provides industrial spirits, including ethanol and fusel oil. Further, the company is involved in generation and transmission of power, as well as trading of petroleum products. Avadh Sugar & Energy Limited was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Kolkata, India.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Avadh Sugar & Energy Limited reported revenue of ₹26.9B in FY2026 versus ₹27.2B in FY2022, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was ₹573M in FY2026, compounding −17.6%/yr from FY2022.
AVADHSUGAR screens 27% overvalued. Compare with Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG →
Peer Group
Confectioners · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISN | CHF 96,500 | CHF 9,874 | -90% |
| Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ | $61.00 | $27.68 | -55% |
| The Hershey Company HSY | $170.27 | $91.25 | -46% |
| Barry Callebaut AG BARN | CHF 1,100 | CHF 711.91 | -35% |
| ORION Corp 271560 | 127,100 KRW | 203,315 KRW | +60% |
| Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TROLB | $39.00 | $22.21 | -43% |
| Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 | ¥18.81 | ¥9.83 | -48% |
| Cloetta AB CLAB | kr 48.88 | kr 59.12 | +21% |
| Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN | ₹586.20 | ₹304.54 | -48% |
| PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk YUPI | 1,320 IDR | 1,286 IDR | -3% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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