Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Aviat Networks Inc $2.22, price $20.04, upside -88.9%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $2.22 · Strongly overvalued (−89%)
!Quality 36/100
!Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +12.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.1% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers(5/13)
!Narrow moat25/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.70 – $39.60 · fair‑value band $1.55 – $2.89 · the $20.04 price screens above the $2.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Aviat Networks, Inc. provides microwave networking and wireless access networking solutions in North America, Africa, the Middle East, Europe, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific.
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Aviat Networks, Inc. provides microwave networking and wireless access networking solutions in North America, Africa, the Middle East, Europe, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers outdoor, indoor, and split-mount radios; microwave routers, and trunking; private LTE/5G, virtual fiber, and network management products; narrow band multi-point radios, designed, and optimised for SCADA and telemetry applications; and hosted software products, such as aviat design, frequency assurance, aviatcloud, and health assurance software. It also provides project services, which include design and engineering, site and path surveys, assembly and integration, project management, and install and commission; and managed services, such as network and interference monitoring, network health, onsite maintenance, and remote upgrades. The company serves communications service providers and private network operators, including transportation agencies, energy and utility companies, public safety agencies, and broadcast network operators, as well as federal, state, and local government agencies. It markets its products through a direct sales, service, and support organization; and indirect sales channels comprising dealers, resellers, and sales representatives, as well as online. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Stock analysis
Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW) currently trades at $20.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.22, implying the stock looks roughly 802.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $13.63 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $20.04 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.39, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $1.55 (bear) to $2.89 (bull), the price of $20.04 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Aviat Networks Inc reported revenue of $435M in FY2025 versus $303M in FY2021, a compound +9.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3M in FY2025, compounding −49.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $257M · P/E ratio 29.0 · P/S ratio 0.09 · EPS (TTM) $0.6900 · Net margin 0.3% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1% · Operating margin 1.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −89%, AVNW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($1.39 to $13.63). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $1.55Fair Value $2.22Bull $2.89
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6900 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.6% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−20.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−20.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → −2%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 308 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−89% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.26× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)29.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.98× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.59× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA8.6× · Cheapest 25%
PEG5.33× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 41
PAST (return on equity)14· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)87· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 22
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
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Is Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.22 versus a price of $20.04, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AVNW?
Our model-based fair value for Aviat Networks Inc is $2.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $20.04.
What is the quality score of AVNW?
Aviat Networks Inc has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.55, optimistic scenario $2.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aviat Networks Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.22, about −89% upside versus a price of $20.04 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.55, optimistic scenario $2.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW)?
Aviat Networks Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $434M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aviat Networks Inc it is $2.22 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $20.04. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aviat Networks Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AVNW trades above its calculated fair value: price $20.04, fair value $2.22, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVNW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($20.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.22). For Aviat Networks Inc the two are $17.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aviat Networks Inc worth?
The market values Aviat Networks Inc at about $257M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $20.04; our models calculate a fair value of $2.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVNW?
Our models span a range for Aviat Networks Inc: cautious scenario $1.55, base $2.22, optimistic $2.89 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $20.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AVNW?
Aviat Networks Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.22 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 5.3, P/B 1.0, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 8.6.
What is the PEG ratio of AVNW?
The PEG ratio of Aviat Networks Inc is 5.33 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aviat Networks Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.4%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVNW from its 52-week high?
Aviat Networks Inc trades at $20.04, about 26% below its 52-week high of $27.02 and 44% above the low of $13.92 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aviat Networks Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Zhongji Innolight Co, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Eoptolink Technology Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aviat Networks Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $20.04, calculated fair value $2.22 (−89%), Quality Score 36/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVNW calculated?
We run Aviat Networks Inc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Aviat Networks Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was $20.04. Our model-based fair value is $2.22, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aviat Networks Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.55 to $2.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Aviat Networks Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW)?
The market capitalisation of Aviat Networks Inc is $257M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aviat Networks Inc is 0.09 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW)?
Earnings per share at Aviat Networks Inc are $0.6900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW)?
The net margin of Aviat Networks Inc is 0.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aviat Networks Inc is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aviat Networks Inc is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW)?
The operating margin of Aviat Networks Inc is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW)?
Revenue at Aviat Networks Inc is growing −11.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW)?
Earnings per share at Aviat Networks Inc are growing +25.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW) generate?
The free cash flow of Aviat Networks Inc is −$7.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Aviat Networks Inc (AVNW) carry?
The net debt of Aviat Networks Inc is $31.2M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026