Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Avalon Holdings Corporation $1.80, price $2.55, upside -29.4%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.88 – $5.64 · fair‑value band $1.80 – $3.30 · the $2.55 price screens above the $1.80 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Avalon Holdings Corporation provides waste management services to industrial, commercial, municipal, and governmental customers in the United States. It operates through Waste Management Services, and Golf and Related Operations segments.
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Avalon Holdings Corporation provides waste management services to industrial, commercial, municipal, and governmental customers in the United States. It operates through Waste Management Services, and Golf and Related Operations segments. The Waste Management Services segment offers hazardous and nonhazardous waste disposal brokerage and management services; captive landfill management services; and turnkey services, including daily operations, facilities management, and management reporting. This segment also engages in the saltwater injection well operations. The Golf and Related Operations segment is involved in the operation and management of golf courses and related clubhouses and facilities; and a hotel and its associated resort amenities, as well as an athletic centers. The company's golf and country club facilities offer swimming pools, fitness centers, tennis courts, dining and banquet, conference facilities, salon, and spa services. It also owns and operates hotel under the brand of The Grand Resort. Avalon Holdings Corporation was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Warren, Ohio.
Stock analysis
Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) currently trades at $2.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.80, implying the stock looks roughly 41.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $7.82 per share, and 8 of the 20 models we run sit above the $2.55 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.3500, and 12 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $1.80 (bear) to $3.30 (bull), the price of $2.55 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Avalon Holdings Corporation reported revenue of $83.5M in FY2025 versus $70.4M in FY2021, a compound +4.4%/yr. Reported net income was $321K in FY2025, compounding −36.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.9M · P/E ratio 8.6 · P/S ratio 0.03 · EPS (TTM) $0.3000 · Net margin 0.4% · Return on equity 2.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% · Operating margin 6.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −29%, AWX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.80Fair Value $1.80Bull $3.30
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2203 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.63/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.6% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−19.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−19.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 2%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.2% a year for the price.
Compare Avalon Holdings Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 167 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−29% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.81× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)8.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.26× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.27× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF11.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA12.6× · Pricier than median
PEG4.39× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)16· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)10· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)59· sector 80
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.80 versus a price of $2.55, about −29% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AWX?
Our model-based fair value for Avalon Holdings Corporation is $1.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.55.
What is the quality score of AWX?
Avalon Holdings Corporation has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.80, optimistic scenario $3.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Avalon Holdings Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.80, about −29% upside versus a price of $2.55 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.80, optimistic scenario $3.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX)?
Avalon Holdings Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $85.8M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Avalon Holdings Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +5.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AWX use?
Our models discount Avalon Holdings Corporation at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.63, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Avalon Holdings Corporation that is +5.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Avalon Holdings Corporation grew +7.3 % a year. The price currently implies +5.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Avalon Holdings Corporation (+5.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.68 %: that much free cash flow Avalon Holdings Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Avalon Holdings Corporation it is $1.80 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.55. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Avalon Holdings Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AWX trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.55, fair value $1.80, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AWX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.80). For Avalon Holdings Corporation the two are $0.7500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Avalon Holdings Corporation worth?
The market values Avalon Holdings Corporation at about $9.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.55; our models calculate a fair value of $1.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AWX?
Our models span a range for Avalon Holdings Corporation: cautious scenario $1.80, base $1.80, optimistic $3.30 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AWX?
Avalon Holdings Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.80 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 23.2 (reported for FY2025: 31.9). Other multiples: PEG 4.4, P/B 0.3, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 12.6.
What is the PEG ratio of AWX?
The PEG ratio of Avalon Holdings Corporation is 4.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Avalon Holdings Corporation (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.5%, debt of 0.81 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AWX from its 52-week high?
Avalon Holdings Corporation trades at $2.55, about 50% below its 52-week high of $5.05 and 5% above the low of $2.43 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Avalon Holdings Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Avalon Holdings Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.55, calculated fair value $1.80 (−29%), Quality Score 49/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AWX calculated?
We run Avalon Holdings Corporation through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Avalon Holdings Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $2.55. Our model-based fair value is $1.80, about −29% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Avalon Holdings Corporation right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($1.80 to $3.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Avalon Holdings Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX)?
The market capitalisation of Avalon Holdings Corporation is $9.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Avalon Holdings Corporation is 0.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX)?
Earnings per share at Avalon Holdings Corporation are $0.3000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX)?
The net margin of Avalon Holdings Corporation is 0.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Avalon Holdings Corporation is 2.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Avalon Holdings Corporation is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX)?
The operating margin of Avalon Holdings Corporation is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX)?
Revenue at Avalon Holdings Corporation is growing +3.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX)?
Earnings per share at Avalon Holdings Corporation are growing +223% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) carry?
The net debt of Avalon Holdings Corporation is $30.7M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026