Avalon Holdings (AWX) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $9.7M
Avalon Holdings
AWX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from $2.05 to $1.66 (−19.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +0.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 36% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from $1.54 (bear) to $2.56 (bull), base $1.66. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 48/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.88 – $5.64 · fair‑value band $1.54 – $2.56 · the $2.60 price screens above the $1.66 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Avalon Holdings (AWX) currently trades at $2.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.66, implying the stock looks roughly 36.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Avalon Holdings generated revenue of $85.1M at a net margin of 0.7%. Revenue grew 9.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.9%. Net debt stands at $30.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.54 (bear case) to $2.56 (bull case); at $2.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -40% fair-value upside, at -36%, AWX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($7.82) versus Earnings-Based ($0.3500). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Avalon Holdings Corporation provides waste management services to industrial, commercial, municipal, and governmental customers in the United States. It operates through Waste Management Services, and Golf and Related Operations segments.
Full company description
Avalon Holdings Corporation provides waste management services to industrial, commercial, municipal, and governmental customers in the United States. It operates through Waste Management Services, and Golf and Related Operations segments. The Waste Management Services segment offers hazardous and nonhazardous waste disposal brokerage and management services; captive landfill management services; and turnkey services, including daily operations, facilities management, and management reporting. This segment also engages in the saltwater injection well operations. The Golf and Related Operations segment is involved in the operation and management of golf courses and related clubhouses and facilities; and a hotel and its associated resort amenities, as well as an athletic centers. The company's golf and country club facilities offer swimming pools, fitness centers, tennis courts, dining and banquet, conference facilities, salon, and spa services. It also owns and operates hotel under the brand of The Grand Resort. Avalon Holdings Corporation was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Warren, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Avalon Holdings reported revenue of $83.5M in FY2025 versus $70.4M in FY2021, a compound +4.4%/yr. Reported net income was $321K in FY2025, compounding −36.5%/yr from FY2021.
AWX screens 36% overvalued. Compare with Waste Management, Inc →
Peer Group
Waste Management · 166 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Waste Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waste Management, Inc WM | $233.33 | $128.02 | -45% |
| Republic Services, Inc RSG | $219.20 | $122.01 | -44% |
| Waste Connections, Inc WCN | C$242.43 | C$78.67 | -68% |
| Veolia Environnement SA VIE | €37.51 | €24.50 | -35% |
| Clean Harbors, Inc CLH | $303.64 | $155.37 | -49% |
| GFL Environmental Inc GFL | C$55.40 | C$94.12 | +70% |
| Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A FCC | €12.20 | €7.30 | -40% |
| GEM Co 002340 | ¥6.32 | ¥5.27 | -17% |
| Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co 603568 | ¥15.75 | ¥20.95 | +33% |
| Cleanaway Waste Management Limited CWY | A$2.34 | A$1.18 | -50% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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