Alliance Nickel Limited (AXN) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$20.8M
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from A$0.0351 to A$0.0313 (−10.8%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price −16.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 25% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
- Our model range runs from A$0.0238 (bear) to A$0.0388 (bull), base A$0.0313. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 27/100 (below-average quality) with low evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0250 – A$0.1500 · fair‑value band A$0.0238 – A$0.0388 · the A$0.0250 price screens below the A$0.0313 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Alliance Nickel Limited (AXN) currently trades at A$0.0250, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0313, implying the stock looks roughly 25.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$426K. Revenue declined 68.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -4.5%. Net debt stands at A$4.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0238 (bear case) to A$0.0388 (bull case); at A$0.0250, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at 25%, AXN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (A$0.0400) versus Dividend Discount (A$0.0300). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alliance Nickel Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Australia. The company explores for nickel and cobalt deposits. Its principal property is the 100% owned NiWest nickel cobalt project located at the Murrin Murrin in the Northeastern Goldfields of Western Australia.
Full company description
Alliance Nickel Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Australia. The company explores for nickel and cobalt deposits. Its principal property is the 100% owned NiWest nickel cobalt project located at the Murrin Murrin in the Northeastern Goldfields of Western Australia. The company was formerly known as GME Resources Limited and changed its name to Alliance Nickel Limited in January 2023. Alliance Nickel Limited was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Nedlands, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alliance Nickel Limited reported revenue of A$1.4M in FY2025 versus A$200K in FY2021, a compound +61.8%/yr. Reported net income was −A$2.3M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 475 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.19 | $9.14 | -36% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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