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Alliance Nickel Ltd (AXN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Alliance Nickel Ltd A$0.04, price A$0.03, upside +10.3%, quality 27 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000265381

AN Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Alliance Nickel Ltd

AXN · AU

Low PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.

·Fair value A$0.0353 · Fairly valued (+10%)
!Quality 27/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +68.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -168.8% net margin (FY2025)
!negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (4/10)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

A$0.1500 A$0.0240 Fair Value A$0.0353 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0240 – A$0.1500 · fair‑value band A$0.0320 – A$0.0419 · the A$0.0320 price screens below the A$0.0353 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Alliance Nickel Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Australia. The company explores for nickel and cobalt deposits. Its principal property is the 100% owned NiWest nickel cobalt project located at the Murrin Murrin in the Northeastern Goldfields of Western Australia.

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Alliance Nickel Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Australia. The company explores for nickel and cobalt deposits. Its principal property is the 100% owned NiWest nickel cobalt project located at the Murrin Murrin in the Northeastern Goldfields of Western Australia. The company was formerly known as GME Resources Limited and changed its name to Alliance Nickel Limited in January 2023. Alliance Nickel Limited was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Nedlands, Australia.

Stock analysis

Alliance Nickel Ltd (AXN) currently trades at A$0.0320, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0353, implying the stock looks roughly 9.3% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0320 (bear) to A$0.0419 (bull), the price of A$0.0320 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Alliance Nickel Ltd reported revenue of A$1.4M in FY2025 versus A$200K in FY2021, a compound +61.8%/yr. Reported net income was −A$2.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$23.2M (≈ $16.3M) · P/S ratio 48.7 · Return on equity −4.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.7% · Operating margin −88.5% · Revenue growth (YoY) −68.9% · Free cash flow −A$5.1M · Net debt A$4.0M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 10%, AXN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0320 Fair Value A$0.0353 Bull A$0.0419
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0300 A$0.0400 A$0.0600 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0300 A$0.0400 A$0.0600 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 27/100

Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33

Profitability 2
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 18
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 45
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 23
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 41
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+139.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+68.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.8% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−486.0% (2020) → −121.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 457 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −169% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −89% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −69% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.34× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 39.56× · Priciest 25%
PEG 1.40× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)47 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 30

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Vale S.A XVALO €12.26 €8.03 −35%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 62.70 SAR 68.97 SAR +10%
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China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥60.26 ¥31.23 −48%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹595.45 ₹655.00 +10%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥36.77 ¥40.45 +10%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥49.34 ¥24.75 −50%
PLS Group PLS A$4.18 A$6.65 +59%
Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co 601958 ¥20.99 ¥12.24 −42%

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Alliance Nickel Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.0353 +9%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alliance Nickel Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AXN

Frequently asked questions

Is Alliance Nickel Ltd (AXN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0353 versus a price of A$0.0320, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AXN?
Our model-based fair value for Alliance Nickel Ltd is A$0.0353 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0320.
What is the quality score of AXN?
Alliance Nickel Ltd has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alliance Nickel Ltd (AXN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0353 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0320, optimistic scenario A$0.0419. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alliance Nickel Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0353, about +10% upside versus a price of A$0.0320 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0320, optimistic scenario A$0.0419. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Alliance Nickel Ltd (AXN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alliance Nickel Ltd it is A$0.0353 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0320. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alliance Nickel Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AXN trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.0320, fair value A$0.0353, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AXN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0320); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0353). For Alliance Nickel Ltd the two are A$0.0033 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alliance Nickel Ltd worth?
The market values Alliance Nickel Ltd at about A$23.2M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0320; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0353 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AXN?
Our models span a range for Alliance Nickel Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0320, base A$0.0353, optimistic A$0.0419 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.0320). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of AXN?
The PEG ratio of Alliance Nickel Ltd is 1.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alliance Nickel Ltd (AXN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alliance Nickel Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −4.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AXN from its 52-week high?
Alliance Nickel Ltd trades at A$0.0320, about 37% below its 52-week high of A$0.0510 and 33% above the low of A$0.0240 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0353 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alliance Nickel Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alliance Nickel Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0320, calculated fair value A$0.0353 (+10%), Quality Score 27/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AXN calculated?
We run Alliance Nickel Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0353, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Alliance Nickel Ltd currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alliance Nickel Ltd (AXN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0320. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0353, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alliance Nickel Ltd right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of Alliance Nickel Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Alliance Nickel Ltd (AXN)?
The market capitalisation of Alliance Nickel Ltd is A$23.2M (≈ $16.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alliance Nickel Ltd (AXN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alliance Nickel Ltd is 48.7 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the return on equity of Alliance Nickel Ltd (AXN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alliance Nickel Ltd is −4.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alliance Nickel Ltd (AXN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alliance Nickel Ltd is −3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alliance Nickel Ltd (AXN)?
The operating margin of Alliance Nickel Ltd is −88.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alliance Nickel Ltd (AXN)?
Revenue at Alliance Nickel Ltd is growing −68.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +139%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Alliance Nickel Ltd (AXN) generate?
The free cash flow of Alliance Nickel Ltd is −A$5.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Alliance Nickel Ltd (AXN) carry?
The net debt of Alliance Nickel Ltd is A$4.0M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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