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Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. $5.38, price $28.19, upside -80.9%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Basic Materials · US · ISIN CA05466C1095

AG Aya Gold & Silver Inc. logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Aya Gold & Silver Inc.

AYA · US

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $5.38 · Strongly overvalued (−81%)
!Quality 54/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +74.2 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 32.8% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
✓Wide moat 74/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$30.38 $3.98 Fair Value $5.38 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.98 – $30.38 · fair‑value band $4.03 – $6.72 · the $28.19 price screens above the $5.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Aya Gold & Silver Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of precious metals projects in Morocco. The company primarily explores for gold and silver deposits.

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Aya Gold & Silver Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of precious metals projects in Morocco. The company primarily explores for gold and silver deposits. Its flagship project holds 100% interests in the Zgounder property located east of Agadir in the Proterozoic Siroua Massif of the Anti-Atlas Range, Morocco covering an area of approximately 378 square kilometers. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Mount Royal, Canada.

Stock analysis

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares (AYA) currently trades at $28.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.38, implying the stock looks roughly 424.1% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $13.62 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the $28.19 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.92, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $4.03 (bear) to $6.72 (bull), the price of $28.19 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares reported revenue of $202M in FY2025 versus $38.2M in FY2022, a compound +74.2%/yr. Reported net income was $45.6M in FY2025, compounding +360.7%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap $4.2B · P/E ratio 36.6 · P/S ratio 8.25 · EPS (TTM) $0.7700 · Net margin 22.5% · Return on equity 25.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% · Operating margin 54.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 205% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −64% fair-value upside, at −81%, AYA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.03 Fair Value $5.38 Bull $6.72
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5633 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV $2.44 $2.77 $3.05 74
EV/EBITDA $4.39 $5.73 $7.07 67
ROIC Compounder $2.44 $2.77 $3.35 67
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $2.15 $15.00 $21.05 59
Lynch FV $7.75 $11.07 $14.39 57
PEG = 1.0 $7.75 $11.07 $14.39 53
EPV $2.44 $2.77 $3.05 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $4.03 $5.38 $6.72 63
P/S Multiple $1.58 $2.10 $2.63 58
P/B Multiple $4.03 $5.38 $6.72 55
EV/EBIT $4.50 $5.88 $7.26 66
EV/EBITDA $4.39 $5.73 $7.07 67
EV/Revenue $1.84 $2.47 $3.10 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.44 $1.92 $2.87 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $2.55 $2.87 $5.12 63
ROIC Compounder $2.44 $2.77 $3.35 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $9.53 $13.62 $17.71 63

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69

Profitability 46
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 45
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 92
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 1
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 95
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 25
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+416.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+74.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.8% (2022) → 28.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed

AYA screens 424% overvalued. Compare with First Majestic Silver Corp →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (76 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Silver” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Materials · 3642 stocks

Beats the sector median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Above median
Fair Value upside −81% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 26% · Top 25%
Return on assets 18% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 33% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 55% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 151% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.20× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Materials median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 36.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 10.11× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 12.17× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 19.9× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 7
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 16
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)90 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 34

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Silver stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
First Majestic Silver Corp AG $20.32 $22.35 +10%
Discovery Silver Corp DSV C$13.02 C$3.72 −71%
Silvercorp Metals Inc SVM $12.34 $7.70 −38%
Andean Precious Metals Corp APM C$6.70 C$12.58 +88%
Guanajuato Silver Company GSVR C$0.4850 C$0.0700 −86%
Sotkamo Silver AB SOSI1 €0.4385 €0.1600 −64%
Minaurum Silver Inc MGG C$0.3200 C$0.0400 −88%
Excellon Resources Inc EXN C$0.4050 C$0.0700 −83%
Argenta Silver Corp AGAG C$0.4900 C$0.0600 −88%
Linde plc LIN $464.91 $441.28 −5%

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Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares · Fair Value
$5.38 −424%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AYA

Frequently asked questions

Is Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.38 versus a price of $28.19, about −81% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AYA?
Our model-based fair value for Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares is $5.38 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $28.19.
What is the quality score of AYA?
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.38 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.03, optimistic scenario $6.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.38, about −81% upside versus a price of $28.19 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.03, optimistic scenario $6.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA)?
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $344M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares it is $5.38 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $28.19. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AYA trades above its calculated fair value: price $28.19, fair value $5.38, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AYA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($28.19); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.38). For Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares the two are $22.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares worth?
The market values Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares at about $4.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $28.19; our models calculate a fair value of $5.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AYA?
Our models span a range for Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares: cautious scenario $4.03, base $5.38, optimistic $6.72 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $28.19). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AYA?
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.38 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 10.1, P/S 12.2, EV/EBITDA 19.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 25.7%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AYA from its 52-week high?
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares trades at $28.19, about 7% below its 52-week high of $30.38 and 205% above the low of $9.25 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value First Majestic Silver Corp, Discovery Silver Corp, Silvercorp Metals Inc, Andean Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $28.19, calculated fair value $5.38 (−81%), Quality Score 54/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AYA calculated?
We run Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $28.19. Our model-based fair value is $5.38, about −81% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares

How large is the market capitalisation of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA)?
The market capitalisation of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares is $4.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares is 8.25 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA)?
Earnings per share at Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares are $0.7700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA)?
The net margin of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares is 22.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares is 25.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares is 2.2% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA)?
The operating margin of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares is 54.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA)?
Revenue at Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares is growing +151% versus a year earlier (3y avg +74.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA)?
Earnings per share at Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares are growing +283% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA) generate?
The free cash flow of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares is −$4.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA) hold?
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares holds more cash than debt, $22.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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