Aya Gold & Silver Inc (AYA) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $2.8B
Aya Gold & Silver Inc
AYA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price +42.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 77% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.95). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.98 – $27.19 · fair‑value band $4.77 – $7.95 · the $27.19 price screens above the $6.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Aya Gold & Silver Inc (AYA) currently trades at $27.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.36, implying the stock looks roughly 76.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Aya Gold & Silver Inc generated revenue of $286M at a net margin of 30.5%. Revenue grew 246.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 24.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $22.8M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.77 (bear case) to $7.95 (bull case); at $27.19, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 229% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -80% fair-value upside, at -77%, AYA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($14.33) versus Asset-Based ($1.93). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Aya Gold & Silver Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of precious metals projects in Morocco. The company primarily explores for gold and silver deposits.
Full company description
Aya Gold & Silver Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of precious metals projects in Morocco. The company primarily explores for gold and silver deposits. Its flagship project holds 100% interests in the Zgounder property located east of Agadir in the Proterozoic Siroua Massif of the Anti-Atlas Range, Morocco covering an area of approximately 378 square kilometers. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Mount Royal, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Aya Gold & Silver Inc reported revenue of $202M in FY2025 versus $38.2M in FY2022, a compound +74.2%/yr. Reported net income was $45.6M in FY2025, compounding +360.7%/yr from FY2022.
AYA screens 77% overvalued. Compare with First Majestic Silver Corp →
Peer Group
Basic Materials · 223 stocks
How this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Silver” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)
Valuation Multiples vs Basic Materials median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Silver stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Majestic Silver Corp AG | $16.95 | $5.78 | -66% |
| Endeavour Silver Corp EXK | $8.08 | $1.24 | -85% |
| Silvercorp Metals Inc SVM | $9.52 | $13.32 | +40% |
| Highlander Silver Corp HSLV | $4.59 | $0.4900 | -89% |
| Andean Precious Metals Corp APM | C$5.86 | C$11.55 | +97% |
| Sotkamo Silver AB SOSI1 | €0.3460 | €0.1700 | -51% |
| Apollo Silver Corp APGO | C$2.60 | C$0.5200 | -80% |
| Minaurum Silver Inc MGG | C$0.2900 | C$0.0400 | -86% |
| Excellon Resources Inc EXN | C$0.3000 | C$0.0500 | -83% |
| Argenta Silver Corp AGAG | C$0.5300 | C$0.0600 | -89% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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