Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Alibaba Group Holding Limited BRL 13.62, price BRL 19.89, upside -31.5%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$11.17 – R$38.02 · fair‑value band R$10.59 – R$17.65 · the R$19.89 price screens above the R$13.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
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Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through the Alibaba China E-Commerce Group, Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and All Others segments. The Alibaba China E-commerce Group segment operates Taobao and Tmall, which are digital retail platforms; Taobao Instant Commerce, a local services and on-demand delivery platform; 1688.com, a domestic wholesale marketplace; and Xianyu, a consumer-to-consumer community and marketplace for idle goods. Its Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group segment includes AliExpress, a global e-commerce platform; Trendyol, an e-commerce platform in Turkey; Lazada, an e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia; Daraz, an e-commerce platform in South Asia, primarily in Pakistan and Bangladesh; and Alibaba.com, an integrated international online wholesale marketplace. The Cloud Intelligence Group segment offers a suite of cloud services based on infrastructure-as-a-service, platform-as-a-service, and model-as-a-service. Its All Others segment comprises Amap, a provider of mobile digital maps, navigation, and real-time traffic information in China; Cainiao, which provides logistics solutions; Youku, an online long-form video platform in China; Freshippo, a retail platform for groceries and fresh goods; and Alibaba Health, a pharmaceutical and healthcare services platform. Alibaba Group Holding Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA34) currently trades at R$19.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$13.62, 31.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R$22.90 per share, and 4 of the 15 models we run sit above the R$19.89 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at R$3.32, and 11 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$10.59 (bear) to R$17.65 (bull), the price of R$19.89 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited reported revenue of 1.0T CNY in FY2026 versus 853B CNY in FY2022, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was 104B CNY in FY2026, compounding +13.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap R$1.4T (≈ $261B) · P/E ratio 16.6 · P/S ratio 1.68 · EPS (TTM) R$1.20 · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7% · Operating margin 1.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −32%, BABA34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$10.59Fair Value R$13.62Bull R$17.65
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.48/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.2% vs 10.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 6%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 102 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside+11.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.2% · Above median
Return on assets2.1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)10.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)1.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)36.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alibaba Group Holding Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BABA34
Frequently asked questions
Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$13.62 versus a price of R$19.89, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BABA34?
Our model-based fair value for Alibaba Group Holding Limited is R$13.62 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$19.89.
What is the quality score of BABA34?
Alibaba Group Holding Limited has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$13.62 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$10.59, optimistic scenario R$17.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$13.62, about −32% upside versus a price of R$19.89 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$10.59, optimistic scenario R$17.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA34)?
Alibaba Group Holding Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.0T CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alibaba Group Holding Limited it is R$13.62 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of R$19.89. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, BABA34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$19.89, fair value R$13.62, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BABA34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$19.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$13.62). For Alibaba Group Holding Limited the two are R$6.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alibaba Group Holding Limited worth?
The market values Alibaba Group Holding Limited at about R$1.4T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is R$19.89; our models calculate a fair value of R$13.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BABA34?
Our models span a range for Alibaba Group Holding Limited: cautious scenario R$10.59, base R$13.62, optimistic R$17.65 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price R$19.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BABA34?
Alibaba Group Holding Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.6 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$13.62 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 1.7, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 16.8.
What is the PEG ratio of BABA34?
The PEG ratio of Alibaba Group Holding Limited is 0.46 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA34)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alibaba Group Holding Limited (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 9.2%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BABA34 from its 52-week high?
Alibaba Group Holding Limited trades at R$19.89, about 45% below its 52-week high of R$35.89 and 14% above the low of R$17.49 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$13.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alibaba Group Holding Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, MercadoLibre, Inc, DoorDash, Inc, Sea Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price R$19.89, calculated fair value R$13.62 (−32%), Quality Score 54/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BABA34 calculated?
We run Alibaba Group Holding Limited through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$13.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Alibaba Group Holding Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$19.89. Our model-based fair value is R$13.62, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alibaba Group Holding Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$17.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Alibaba Group Holding Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA34)?
The market capitalisation of Alibaba Group Holding Limited is R$1.4T (≈ $261B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alibaba Group Holding Limited is 1.68 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA34)?
Earnings per share at Alibaba Group Holding Limited are R$1.20 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA34)?
The net margin of Alibaba Group Holding Limited is 10.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alibaba Group Holding Limited is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alibaba Group Holding Limited is 5.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA34)?
The operating margin of Alibaba Group Holding Limited is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA34)?
Revenue at Alibaba Group Holding Limited is growing +2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA34)?
Earnings per share at Alibaba Group Holding Limited are growing +104% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA34) generate?
The free cash flow of Alibaba Group Holding Limited is −50.7B CNY (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA34) carry?
The net debt of Alibaba Group Holding Limited is 128B CNY (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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