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Alibaba Group (BABAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Alibaba Group $9.20, price $13.09, upside -29.7%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Cyclical · US · Home Hong Kong · ISIN KYG017191142

AG Alibaba Group logo Some data Sep 28, 2026

Alibaba Group

BABAF · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $9.20 · Overvalued (−29.7%)
!Quality 41/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +6.6 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.1% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 43/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$25.91 $7.30 Fair Value $9.20 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.30 – $25.91 · fair‑value band $7.42 – $11.68 · the $13.09 price screens above the $9.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally.

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Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through the Alibaba China E-Commerce Group, Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and All Others segments. The Alibaba China E-commerce Group segment operates Taobao and Tmall, which are digital retail platforms; Taobao Instant Commerce, a local services and on-demand delivery platform; 1688.com, a domestic wholesale marketplace; and Xianyu, a consumer-to-consumer community and marketplace for idle goods. Its Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group segment includes AliExpress, a global e-commerce platform; Trendyol, an e-commerce platform in Turkey; Lazada, an e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia; Daraz, an e-commerce platform in South Asia, primarily in Pakistan and Bangladesh; and Alibaba.com, an integrated international online wholesale marketplace. The Cloud Intelligence Group segment offers a suite of cloud services based on infrastructure-as-a-service, platform-as-a-service, and model-as-a-service. Its All Others segment comprises Amap, a provider of mobile digital maps, navigation, and real-time traffic information in China; Cainiao, which provides logistics solutions; Youku, an online long-form video platform in China; Freshippo, a retail platform for groceries and fresh goods; and Alibaba Health, a pharmaceutical and healthcare services platform. Alibaba Group Holding Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, China.

Stock analysis

Alibaba Group (BABAF) currently trades at $13.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.20, 29.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $33.88 per share, and 6 of the 17 models we run sit above the $13.09 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $2.17, and 11 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $7.42 (bear) to $11.68 (bull), the price of $13.09 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Alibaba Group reported revenue of 987B CNY in FY2026 versus 853B CNY in FY2022, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was 99.9B CNY in FY2026, compounding +12.6%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $311B · P/E ratio 16.2 · P/S ratio 1.64 · EPS (TTM) $0.8100 · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4% · Operating margin 1.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −30%, BABAF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $7.42 Fair Value $9.20 Bull $11.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $7.24 $8.02 $10.42 76
EPV $1.78 $2.17 $2.52 74
ROIC Compounder $1.78 $2.17 $2.52 72
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $2.75 $7.06 $16.52 69
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $5.28 $36.85 $51.71 63
Lynch FV $17.59 $25.13 $32.67 61
PEG = 1.0 $17.59 $25.13 $32.67 57
EPV $1.78 $2.17 $2.52 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $2.52 $5.51 $9.27 65
DDM Multi-Stage $2.52 $4.51 $5.74 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $12.82 $17.09 $21.37 63
P/S Multiple $6.91 $9.21 $11.52 58
P/B Multiple $9.91 $13.21 $16.51 55
EV/EBIT $5.57 $7.58 $9.59 66
EV/EBITDA $6.86 $9.30 $11.74 67
EV/Revenue $3.61 $5.35 $7.09 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.11 $5.51 $8.22 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $7.24 $8.02 $10.42 76
ROIC Compounder $1.78 $2.17 $2.52 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $23.71 $33.88 $44.04 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 14
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 72
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 50
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +25.6% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−5.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5.4% vs −5.7%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)

BABAF screens overvalued: fair value 30% below the price. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 102 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +19.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 9.2% · Above median
Return on assets 2.1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 10.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 1.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 2.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 48.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.22× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.2× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.41× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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eBay Inc EBAY $107.32 $118.05 +10%
JD.com, Inc JD $26.30 $33.32 +27%
Coupang, Inc CPNG $13.88 $4.96 −64%
Wayfair Inc W $102.56 $34.72 −66%
Allegro.eu S.A ALE 49.56 PLN 54.51 PLN +10%
Delivery Hero SE DHER €36.68 €12.59 −66%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alibaba Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BABAF

Frequently asked questions

Is Alibaba Group (BABAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.20 versus a price of $13.09, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BABAF?
Our model-based fair value for Alibaba Group is $9.20 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.09.
What is the quality score of BABAF?
Alibaba Group has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alibaba Group (BABAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.20 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.42, optimistic scenario $11.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alibaba Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.20, about −30% upside versus a price of $13.09 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.42, optimistic scenario $11.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alibaba Group (BABAF)?
Alibaba Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.0T (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alibaba Group (BABAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alibaba Group it is $9.20 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $13.09. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alibaba Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, BABAF trades above its calculated fair value: price $13.09, fair value $9.20, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BABAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.20). For Alibaba Group the two are $3.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alibaba Group worth?
The market values Alibaba Group at about $311B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $13.09; our models calculate a fair value of $9.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BABAF?
Our models span a range for Alibaba Group: cautious scenario $7.42, base $9.20, optimistic $11.68 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $13.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BABAF?
Alibaba Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4.
What is the PEG ratio of BABAF?
The PEG ratio of Alibaba Group is 0.41 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alibaba Group (BABAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alibaba Group (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 9.2%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BABAF from its 52-week high?
Alibaba Group trades at $13.09, about 44% below its 52-week high of $23.43 and 10% above the low of $11.89 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alibaba Group?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, MercadoLibre, Inc, DoorDash, Inc, Sea Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alibaba Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $13.09, calculated fair value $9.20 (−30%), Quality Score 41/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BABAF calculated?
We run Alibaba Group through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Alibaba Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alibaba Group (BABAF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $13.09. Our model-based fair value is $9.20, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alibaba Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Alibaba Group (BABAF) come from?
Earnings per share at Alibaba Group grew +3.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +20.5 %, EBIT margin −10.8 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Alibaba Group

How large is the market capitalisation of Alibaba Group (BABAF)?
The market capitalisation of Alibaba Group is $311B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alibaba Group (BABAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alibaba Group is 1.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alibaba Group (BABAF)?
Earnings per share at Alibaba Group are $0.8100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alibaba Group (BABAF)?
The net margin of Alibaba Group is 10.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alibaba Group (BABAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alibaba Group is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alibaba Group (BABAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alibaba Group is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alibaba Group (BABAF)?
The operating margin of Alibaba Group is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alibaba Group (BABAF)?
Revenue at Alibaba Group is growing +2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alibaba Group (BABAF)?
Earnings per share at Alibaba Group are growing +104% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Alibaba Group (BABAF) generate?
The free cash flow of Alibaba Group is −$50.7B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Alibaba Group (BABAF) carry?
The net debt of Alibaba Group is $86.1B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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