Alibaba Group (BABAF) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $281B
Alibaba Group
BABAF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from $9.08 to $9.10 (+0.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +11.4% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range $11.89 – $23.43 · fair‑value band $7.39 – $17.38 · the $14.81 price screens above the $9.10 fair value. As of Jul 14, 2026.
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Alibaba Group (BABAF) currently trades at $14.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.10, implying the stock looks roughly 38.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Alibaba Group generated revenue of $1.0T at a net margin of 10.1%. Revenue grew 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.2%. Net debt stands at $86.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.39 (bear case) to $17.38 (bull case); at $14.81, the current price sits within that range. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at -39%, BABAF screens richer than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through the Alibaba China E-Commerce Group, Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and All Others segments. The Alibaba China E-commerce Group segment operates Taobao and Tmall, which are digital retail platforms; Taobao Instant Commerce, a local services and on-demand delivery platform; 1688.com, a domestic wholesale marketplace; and Xianyu, a consumer-to-consumer community and marketplace for idle goods. Its Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group segment includes AliExpress, a global e-commerce platform; Trendyol, an e-commerce platform in Turkey; Lazada, an e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia; Daraz, an e-commerce platform in South Asia, primarily in Pakistan and Bangladesh; and Alibaba.com, an integrated …
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Alibaba Group reported revenue of ¥987B in FY2026 versus ¥853B in FY2022, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥99.9B in FY2026, compounding +12.6%/yr from FY2022.
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External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection, not financial advice.
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10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
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|---|---|---|---|
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| Naspers Limited NAPRF | $52.01 | $9.39 | -82% |
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| Prosus N.V 1TY | €37.94 | €64.26 | +69% |
| MercadoLibre, Inc MELI | $1,589 | $1,830 | +15% |
| DoorDash, Inc DASH | $151.00 | $63.49 | -58% |
| Sea Limited S2EA34 | R$18.49 | R$20.94 | +13% |
| Meituan MPNGF | $9.06 | $15.97 | +76% |
| eBay Inc EBAY | $106.41 | $53.17 | -50% |
| JD.com, Inc 9618 | HK$107.50 | HK$129.30 | +20% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.