BCI Minerals Ltd (BCI) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$1.2B (≈ $847M) · ISIN AU000000BCI0
What is BCI Minerals Ltd really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 288% above our fair value of A$0.1445.
As of Aug 30, 2026, the fair value of BCI Minerals Ltd is A$0.1445 per share against a price of A$0.5600, so the fair value sits 74% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Share price +28.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.2210). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (7/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.1105 to A$0.2210) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1965 – A$0.5703 · fair‑value band A$0.1105 – A$0.2210 · the A$0.5600 price screens above the A$0.1445 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
BCI Minerals Ltd (BCI) currently trades at A$0.5600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1445, implying the stock looks roughly 287.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 7/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$3.8M. Revenue declined 47.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −9.3%. Net debt stands at A$291M. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.1105 (bear case) to A$0.2210 (bull case); at A$0.5600, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 84% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −74%, BCI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 13 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
BCI Minerals Limited, a mineral resources company, engages in the development of industrial minerals in Australia. It primarily explores for salt and potash deposits. The company holds 100% interest in the Mardie Salt and Potash project located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia.
Full company description
BCI Minerals Limited, a mineral resources company, engages in the development of industrial minerals in Australia. It primarily explores for salt and potash deposits. The company holds 100% interest in the Mardie Salt and Potash project located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. The company was formerly known as BC Iron Limited and changed its name to BCI Minerals Limited in December 2017. BCI Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BCI Minerals Ltd reported revenue of A$5.8M in FY2025 versus A$162M in FY2021, a compound −56.5%/yr. Reported net income was −A$47.1M in FY2025.
BCI screens 288% overvalued. Compare with Nucor Corporation →
Peer Group
Steel · 399 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nucor Corporation NUE | $250.50 | $116.05 | −54% |
| ArcelorMittal S.A MT | €64.60 | €46.04 | −29% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,296 | ₹1,119 | −14% |
| Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD | $234.67 | $127.14 | −46% |
| 500228 500228 | ₹1,292 | ₹1,079 | −16% |
| Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL | ₹188.79 | ₹145.39 | −23% |
| Reliance, Inc RS | $387.59 | $217.81 | −44% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.91 | ¥8.07 | +37% |
| POSCO Holdings PKX | $63.13 | $85.21 | +35% |
| Jindal Steel & Power Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,114 | ₹429.44 | −61% |
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