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Data-driven stock valuation

ArcelorMittal SA ADR (MT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what ArcelorMittal SA ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $48.0B · ISIN US03938L2034

At a glance

AS ArcelorMittal SA ADR logo ArcelorMittal SA ADR MT · US
Price$78.74
Fair Value$52.69
Upside−33.1%
Quality55/100

A solid business, but trading 49% above our fair value of $52.69.

As of Sep 3, 2026, the fair value of ArcelorMittal SA ADR is $52.69 per share against a price of $78.74, so the fair value sits 33% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +2.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.7% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·0.76% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
!Narrow moat 27/100
!Weak on future: 23 out of 100
!Weak on past: 22 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 15 out of 100
Evidence: High Range $41.37 to $59.31

Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 5 days ago

Share price +4.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($59.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$78.74 $18.73 Fair Value $52.69 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $18.73 – $78.74 · fair‑value band $41.37 – $59.31 · the $78.74 price screens above the $52.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.

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Analysis

ArcelorMittal SA ADR (MT) currently trades at $78.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $52.69, implying the stock looks roughly 49.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $70.83 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the $78.74 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $7.67, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, ArcelorMittal SA ADR generated revenue of $62.0B at a net margin of 4.7%. Revenue grew 4.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.4%. Net debt stands at $7.9B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026

Scenario range: $41.37 (bear) to $59.31 (bull), the price of $78.74 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 167% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −33%, MT screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.21 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income $56.21 $57.50 $57.40 76
Owner Earnings $19.41 $30.85 $47.32 75
5Y EBITDA Exit $33.35 $62.43 $95.51 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $1.10 $4.16 $8.57 73
Owner Earnings $19.41 $30.85 $47.32 75
5Y Revenue Exit $23.03 $43.96 $70.36 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $33.35 $62.43 $95.51 74
5Y P/E Exit $26.60 $50.34 $74.38 69
10Y Revenue Exit $13.52 $30.68 $52.95 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $21.24 $43.21 $71.39 66
10Y P/E Exit $17.02 $35.02 $55.90 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $28.33 $69.25 $89.60 65
PEG = 1.0 $12.39 $17.71 $23.02 57
EPV $35.52 $42.37 $48.36 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $5.11 $9.28 $14.77 66
DDM Multi-Stage $5.11 $7.67 $10.47 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $53.12 $70.83 $88.53 63
P/S Multiple $53.12 $70.83 $88.53 58
P/B Multiple $53.12 $70.83 $88.53 55
EV/EBIT $44.76 $61.55 $78.33 66
EV/EBITDA $59.57 $81.29 $103.01 67
EV/Revenue $38.05 $56.75 $75.46 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $36.00 $48.24 $71.99 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $1.29 $4.11 $8.00 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income $56.21 $57.50 $57.40 76
ROIC Compounder $35.52 $42.37 $48.36 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $41.37 $59.11 $76.84 67

Widest divergence: Multiples ($70.83) versus Growth DCF ($4.11). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 20.6
P/S ratio 1.06 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $3.82 price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.6
Dividend yield 0.8% payout 15.7%
Net margin 5.1% FY2025
Return on equity 5.4% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9% avg 5y
Operating margin 4.9% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $62.0B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.5% 3y avg −8.4%
EPS growth (YoY) −27.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $471M FY2025
Net debt $7.9B FY2025 · ≈ 16.8 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 31
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 21
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 87
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

ArcelorMittal S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as integrated steel and mining companies in the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa.

Full company description

ArcelorMittal S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as integrated steel and mining companies in the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa. It offers semi-finished flat products, including slabs; finished flat products comprising plates, hot- and cold-rolled coils and sheets, hot-dipped and electro-galvanized coils and sheets, tinplate, and color coated coils and sheets; semi-finished long products, such as blooms and billets; finished long products consisting of bars, wire-rods, structural sections, rails, sheet piles, and wire-products; and seamless and welded pipes and tubes. The company also provides mining products, such as iron ore lumps, fines, concentrate, pellets, and sinter feeds; and coking coal. It sells its products to various customers in the automotive, appliance, engineering, construction, energy, and machinery industries through a centralized marketing organization, and distributors. The company operates iron ore mining activities in Brazil, Bosnia, Liberia, Mexico, South Africa, and Ukraine, as well as in India and in Canada. ArcelorMittal S.A. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

ArcelorMittal SA ADR reported revenue of $61.4B in FY2025 versus $76.6B in FY2021, a compound −5.4%/yr. Reported net income was $3.2B in FY2025, compounding −32.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 38/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$61.4B
Latest YoY
−1.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−8.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (28Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−22.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−23.1%
Dividend yield0.8%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −21.1% vs 10Y 8.2%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4.0% (2020) → 5.9% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop309% (2012) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Revenue −5.4%/yr
FY21 $76.6B
FY22 $79.8B
FY23 $68.3B
FY24 $62.4B
FY25 $61.4B
Net income −32.2%/yr
FY21 $15.0B
FY22 $9.3B
FY23 $919M
FY24 $1.3B
FY25 $3.2B

MT screens 49% overvalued. Compare with Nucor Corporation →

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ArcelorMittal SA ADR · Fair Value
$52.69 −49%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ArcelorMittal SA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MT

Peer Group

Steel · 401 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside −31% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.18× · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 20.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.88× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.77× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 101.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 11.9× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.66× · Cheaper than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must ArcelorMittal SA ADR deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+37.4 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+2.9 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+3.2 %
FCF yield on price0.78 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models10.7 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 12
FUTURE23 · sector 2
PAST22 · sector 16
HEALTH91 · sector 95
DIVIDEND15 · sector 49

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nucor Corporation NUE $261.07 $116.05 −56%
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,296 ₹1,119 −14%
Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD $234.67 $127.14 −46%
500228 500228 ₹1,292 ₹1,079 −16%
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹188.79 ₹145.39 −23%
Reliance, Inc RS $387.59 $217.81 −44%
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥5.91 ¥8.07 +37%
POSCO Holdings PKX $63.13 $85.21 +35%
Jindal Steel & Power Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,114 ₹429.44 −61%
Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME ₹1,891 ₹793.69 −58%

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Frequently asked questions

Is ArcelorMittal SA ADR (MT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $52.69 versus a price of $78.74, about −33% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MT?
Our model-based fair value for ArcelorMittal SA ADR is $52.69 (as of Sep 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $78.74.
What is the quality score of MT?
ArcelorMittal SA ADR has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ArcelorMittal SA ADR (MT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $52.69 (as of Sep 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $41.37, optimistic scenario $59.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ArcelorMittal SA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $52.69, about −33% upside versus a price of $78.74 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $41.37, optimistic scenario $59.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ArcelorMittal SA ADR (MT)?
ArcelorMittal SA ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $62.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 3, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MT?
The net profit margin of ArcelorMittal SA ADR is about 4.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does ArcelorMittal SA ADR pay a dividend?
ArcelorMittal SA ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.76% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into ArcelorMittal SA ADR (MT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ArcelorMittal SA ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +37.4 % per year for ten years (discount rate 10.7 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.9 % per year. As of Sep 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MT use?
Our models discount ArcelorMittal SA ADR at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.73. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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