Steel Dynamics, Inc (STLD) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $32.9B
Steel Dynamics, Inc
STLD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +13.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 47% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($174.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($57.14 to $174.70). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $49.06 – $282.12 · fair‑value band $57.14 – $174.70 · the $261.48 price screens above the $139.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Steel Dynamics, Inc (STLD) currently trades at $261.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $139.76, implying the stock looks roughly 46.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Steel Dynamics, Inc generated revenue of $19.0B at a net margin of 7.2%. Revenue grew 19.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.3%. Net debt stands at $3.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $57.14 (bear case) to $174.70 (bull case); at $261.48, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 120% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at -47%, STLD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($370.77) versus Dividend Discount ($32.50). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Steel Dynamics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States. It operates through four segments: Steel Operations, Metals Recycling Operations, Steel Fabrication Operations, and Aluminum Operations.
Full company description
Steel Dynamics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States. It operates through four segments: Steel Operations, Metals Recycling Operations, Steel Fabrication Operations, and Aluminum Operations. The Steel Operations segment offers hot rolled, cold rolled, and coated steel products; parallel flange beams and channel sections, large unequal leg angles, and reinforcing steel bars, standard strength carbon, intermediate alloy hardness, and premium grade rail products; engineered special-bar-quality products, merchant-bar-quality products, and other engineered round steel bars; channels, angles, flats, merchant rounds, and reinforcing steel bars; and specialty shapes and light structural steel products. This segment also engages in turning, polishing, straightening, chamfering, precision saw-cutting, and heat treating of bar products. Its products are used in construction, automotive, manufacturing, transportation, heavy and agricultural equipment, energy, and pipe and tube markets. The Metals Recycling Operations segment is involved in the ferrous and nonferrous scrap metal processing, transportation, marketing, brokerage, and scrap management services. Its ferrous products include heavy melting steel, busheling, bundled scrap, shredded scrap, steel turnings, and cast-iron products; and nonferrous products comprise aluminum, brass, copper, stainless steel, and other nonferrous metals. The Steel Fabrication Operations segment produces steel non-residential building components, such as steel joists, joist girders, and steel deck products for non-residential steel fabricators, metal building companies, general construction contractors, developers, property owners, brokers, and governmental entities. The Aluminum Operations segment offers recycled aluminum flat rolled products. The company also exports its products. Steel Dynamics, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Fort Wayne, Indiana.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Steel Dynamics, Inc reported revenue of $18.2B in FY2025 versus $18.4B in FY2021, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding −22.1%/yr from FY2021.
STLD screens 47% overvalued. Compare with Tata Steel Limited →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Steel Dynamics Appoints Theresa Wagler As President And CEO
- Theresa E. Wagler to become Steel Dynamics' President and Chief Executive Officer; Mark D. Millett to become Steel Dynamics' Executive Chair
- Stock Market Today, July 23: Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Soars on Robust Steel Demand and Pricing
Peer Group
Steel · 381 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tata Steel Limited TTST | $0.2010 | $0.2000 | -0% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,227 | ₹1,140 | -7% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.89 | ¥8.07 | +37% |
| China Steel Corporation 2002A | 38.55 TWD | 8.74 TWD | -77% |
| POSCO Holdings 005490 | 313,500 KRW | 155,270 KRW | -50% |
| Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID | 13,670 ARS | 15,940 ARS | +17% |
| Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,028 | ₹545.12 | -47% |
| Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME | ₹1,844 | ₹1,098 | -40% |
| SSAB AB SSABA | kr 96.04 | kr 72.43 | -25% |
| Gerdau S.A GGBN | 83.50 MXN | 42.64 MXN | -49% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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