Blue Dolphin Energy Company (BDCO) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $53.0M
Blue Dolphin Energy Company
BDCO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from $3.30 to $0.5900 (−82.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −2.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 85% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.6600). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1250 – $7.50 · fair‑value band $0.5000 – $0.6600 · the $3.90 price screens above the $0.5900 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Blue Dolphin Energy Company (BDCO) currently trades at $3.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.5900, implying the stock looks roughly 84.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Blue Dolphin Energy Company generated revenue of $277M at a net margin of 2.5%. Revenue declined 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.8%. Net debt stands at $46.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.5000 (bear case) to $0.6600 (bull case); at $3.90, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 286% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -85%, BDCO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($1.23) versus Earnings-Based ($0.5000). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Blue Dolphin Energy Company, an independent downstream energy company, engages in the refining of petroleum products in the United States. It operates through Refinery Operations, Tolling and Terminaling, and Corporate and Other segments.
Full company description
Blue Dolphin Energy Company, an independent downstream energy company, engages in the refining of petroleum products in the United States. It operates through Refinery Operations, Tolling and Terminaling, and Corporate and Other segments. The company offers finished products, such as jet fuel; and intermediate petroleum products, including naphtha, heavy oil-based mud blendstock, and atmospheric gas oil. It also conducts tolling and terminaling services at the Nixon facility. In addition, the company offers storage tank rental services; ancillary services, such as in-tank blending; and tolling and reservation services. The company serves distributors, wholesalers, and refineries in the lower portion of the Texas Triangle, including the Houston, San Antonio, and Dallas/Fort Worth areas. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas. Blue Dolphin Energy Company operates as a subsidiary of Lazarus Energy Holdings, LLC.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Blue Dolphin Energy Company reported revenue of $279M in FY2025 versus $301M in FY2021, a compound −1.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$5.6M in FY2025.
BDCO screens 85% overvalued. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 114 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,293 | ₹835.66 | -35% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $309.65 | $127.32 | -59% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $283.74 | $135.80 | -52% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $196.16 | $101.04 | -48% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €31.10 | €4.07 | -87% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 81.30 TWD | 16.68 TWD | -79% |
| Indian Oil Corporation IOC | ₹138.96 | ₹417.35 | +200% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $88.59 | $48.90 | -45% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹315.55 | ₹846.81 | +168% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 121,400 KRW | 58,865 KRW | -52% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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