Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lion Finance Group PLC stock £132, price £122, upside +8.5%, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £7.42 – £146.00 · fair‑value band £90.38 – £164.72 · the £121.50 price screens below the £131.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Lion Finance Group PLC, through its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial services with focus on the Georgian and Armenian markets. The company operates through Georgian Financial Services, Armenian Financial Services, and Other Businesses segments.
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The Georgian Financial Services segment provides retail banking, SME, and corporate and investment banking, and corporate center services; and brokerage and asset management services. The Armenian Financial Services offers retail banking, and investment banking services.
The Other Businesses segment provides retail and corporate banking services for retail and SME clients in Belarus; and e-commerce, ticketing, and inventory management SaaS services.
It also offers information sharing and market research services, charitable activities, leasing, digital, transportation, trade, registrar, card processing, electronic payment services, communication services, business servicing, and consulting services.
The company was formerly known as Bank of Georgia Group PLC and changed its name to Lion Finance Group PLC in February 2024. Lion Finance Group PLC was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO) currently trades at £121.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £131.78, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of £133.61 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the £121.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £36.03, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £90.38 (bear) to £164.72 (bull), the price of £121.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Lion Finance Group PLC reported revenue of 6.7B GEL in FY2025 versus 2.3B GEL in FY2021, a compound +31.2%/yr. Reported net income was 2.2B GEL in FY2025, compounding +31.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap £5.2B Mid · P/E ratio 8.2 · P/S ratio 2.65 · EPS (TTM) £14.78 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 32.3% · Return on equity 27.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 75 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 8%, BGEO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£90.38Fair Value £131.78Bull£164.72
Price £121.50 · Upside +8.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (£11.99 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+52.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.1% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+54.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+51.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.36.6% vs 22.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 39%
2025 sits 63% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (25 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1049 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+8.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)27.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)51.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)19.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lion Finance Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BGEO
Frequently asked questions
Is Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £131.78 versus a price of £121.50, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of BGEO?
Our model-based fair value for Lion Finance Group PLC is £131.78 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £121.50.
What is the quality score of BGEO?
Lion Finance Group PLC has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £131.78 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario £90.38, optimistic scenario £164.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lion Finance Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £131.78, about +8% upside versus a price of £121.50 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario £90.38, optimistic scenario £164.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO)?
Lion Finance Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.9B GEL (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Lion Finance Group PLC pay a dividend?
Lion Finance Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 2.50% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lion Finance Group PLC would have to grow free cash flow by -9.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +52.3 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BGEO use?
Our models discount Lion Finance Group PLC at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lion Finance Group PLC that is -9.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lion Finance Group PLC grew +52.3 % a year. The price currently implies -9.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lion Finance Group PLC (-9.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.24 %: that much free cash flow Lion Finance Group PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lion Finance Group PLC it is £131.78 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of £121.50. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lion Finance Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, BGEO trades below its calculated fair value: price £121.50, fair value £131.78, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BGEO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£121.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£131.78). For Lion Finance Group PLC the two are £10.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lion Finance Group PLC worth?
The market values Lion Finance Group PLC at about £5.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is £121.50; our models calculate a fair value of £131.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BGEO?
Our models span a range for Lion Finance Group PLC: cautious scenario £90.38, base £131.78, optimistic £164.72 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price £121.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BGEO?
Lion Finance Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.2 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £131.78 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 4.7, EV/EBITDA 4.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lion Finance Group PLC (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 27.5%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BGEO from its 52-week high?
Lion Finance Group PLC trades at £121.50, about 17% below its 52-week high of £146.00 and 64% above the low of £74.12 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £131.78 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lion Finance Group PLC?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lion Finance Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price £121.50, calculated fair value £131.78 (+8%), Quality Score 59/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BGEO calculated?
We run Lion Finance Group PLC through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £131.78, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Lion Finance Group PLC currently trades 8 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was £121.50. Our model-based fair value is £131.78, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lion Finance Group PLC right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (£90.38 to £164.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO) come from?
Earnings per share at Lion Finance Group PLC grew +23.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +19.9 %, EBIT margin +5.9 %, tax rate −1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lion Finance Group PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO)?
The market capitalisation of Lion Finance Group PLC is £5.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lion Finance Group PLC is 2.65 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO)?
Earnings per share at Lion Finance Group PLC are £14.78 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO)?
The dividend yield of Lion Finance Group PLC is 2.5% (payout 20.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO)?
The net margin of Lion Finance Group PLC is 32.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lion Finance Group PLC is 27.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lion Finance Group PLC is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO)?
Revenue at Lion Finance Group PLC is growing +19.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +29.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO)?
Earnings per share at Lion Finance Group PLC are growing +22.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO) carry?
The net debt of Lion Finance Group PLC is 887M GEL (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026