Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Bike24 Holding AG is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.9780 – €27.00 · fair‑value band €3.45 – €9.44 · the €2.49 price screens below the €5.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Bike24 Holding AG operates an online cycling platform in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, rest of Europe, and internationally. It offers classic bicycles, e-bikes, parts, and accessories, as well as clothing products. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Dresden, Germany.
Stock analysis
Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE) currently trades at €2.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €5.73, implying the stock looks roughly 56.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €5.79 per share, and 10 of the 11 models we run sit above the €2.49 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €1.88, and 1 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €3.45 (bear) to €9.44 (bull), the price of €2.49 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Bike24 Holding AG reported revenue of €289M in FY2025 versus €250M in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was −€582K in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €110M · P/E ratio 89.0 · P/S ratio 0.45 · EPS (TTM) €−0.1300 · Net margin −0.2% · Return on equity 1.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.4% · Operating margin −3.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 130%, BIKE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €3.45Fair Value €5.73Bull €9.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0213 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.53/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+27.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
’18
’20
’21
’22
’23
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’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.7% (2020) → −1.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Above median
Fair Value upside+7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth22% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bike24 Holding AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BIKE
Frequently asked questions
Is Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €5.73 versus a price of €2.49, about +130% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BIKE?
Our model-based fair value for Bike24 Holding AG is €5.73 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €2.49.
What is the quality score of BIKE?
Bike24 Holding AG has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €5.73 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario €3.45, optimistic scenario €9.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bike24 Holding AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €5.73, about +130% upside versus a price of €2.49 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €3.45, optimistic scenario €9.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE)?
Bike24 Holding AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €306M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bike24 Holding AG would have to grow free cash flow by -2.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.7 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BIKE use?
Our models discount Bike24 Holding AG at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.96, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bike24 Holding AG that is -2.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bike24 Holding AG grew +7.7 % a year. The price currently implies -2.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bike24 Holding AG (-2.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.20 %: that much free cash flow Bike24 Holding AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bike24 Holding AG it is €5.73 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of €2.49. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bike24 Holding AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, BIKE trades below its calculated fair value: price €2.49, fair value €5.73, a gap of about +130% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BIKE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€2.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€5.73). For Bike24 Holding AG the two are €3.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bike24 Holding AG worth?
The market values Bike24 Holding AG at about €110M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is €2.49; our models calculate a fair value of €5.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BIKE?
Our models span a range for Bike24 Holding AG: cautious scenario €3.45, base €5.73, optimistic €9.44 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price €2.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BIKE?
Bike24 Holding AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 89.0 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €5.73 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 8.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bike24 Holding AG (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 1.2%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BIKE from its 52-week high?
Bike24 Holding AG trades at €2.49, about 32% below its 52-week high of €3.64 and 9% above the low of €2.29 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €5.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bike24 Holding AG?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, PDD Holdings, MercadoLibre, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bike24 Holding AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price €2.49, calculated fair value €5.73 (+130%), Quality Score 64/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BIKE calculated?
We run Bike24 Holding AG through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €5.73, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Bike24 Holding AG currently trades 130 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE)?
The closing price on Sep 15, 2026 was €2.49. Our model-based fair value is €5.73, about +130% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bike24 Holding AG right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€3.45). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (€3.45 to €9.44). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Bike24 Holding AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE)?
The market capitalisation of Bike24 Holding AG is €110M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bike24 Holding AG is 0.45 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE)?
Earnings per share at Bike24 Holding AG are €−0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 89.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE)?
The net margin of Bike24 Holding AG is −0.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bike24 Holding AG is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bike24 Holding AG is −3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE)?
The operating margin of Bike24 Holding AG is −3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE)?
Revenue at Bike24 Holding AG is growing +22.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE)?
Earnings per share at Bike24 Holding AG are growing −92.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE) carry?
The net debt of Bike24 Holding AG is €19.8M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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